Hi

If it is so how do you explain the not realistic internet prices ( when they
were
in pick price).

Efi

======================================================
----- Original Message -----
From: "Peter GREENFINCH" <pgreenfinch@...>
To: <Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, May 10, 2000 7:52 PM
Subject: [Behavioral-Finance] Nasdaq and stock image


> What happens to the nasdaq seems an extreme illustration of the
> effects of what I call the stock image (see link to my homepage in
> the group page)
> If I use my model, in its most simple formulation:
> Stock price = Estimated Economic Value* x Stock Image Coefficient
> *based on known and projected fundamentals
> It seems that some tech stocks had no economic value at all, and
> their price was pure image.
> Of course, the stock image is just a measuring tool.
> One not easy to calibrate.
> And it still lack empirical evidence (like the CAPM by the way).
> What would be interesting also would be to analyse its components,
> and I just skimmed the surface.
> What do you think of this concept ?
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Bids starting at $7 for thousands of products - uBid.com
> http://click.egroups.com/1/3027/4/_/_/_/957981177/
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> Behavioral-Finance-unsubscribe@egroups.com
>
>
>
>

What happens to the nasdaq seems an extreme illustration of the
effects of what I call the stock image (see link to my homepage in
the group page)
If I use my model, in its most simple formulation:
Stock price = Estimated Economic Value* x Stock Image Coefficient
*based on known and projected fundamentals
It seems that some tech stocks had no economic value at all, and
their price was pure image.
Of course, the stock image is just a measuring tool.
One not easy to calibrate.
And it still lack empirical evidence (like the CAPM by the way).
What would be interesting also would be to analyse its components,
and I just skimmed the surface.
What do you think of this concept ?

I suppose I don't ignore it because I don't want to encourage irrational
thought, mis-statement and general humbuggery by saying nothing.

If you think I have no grasp of Ayn Rand, you'd best rethink. 30 years ago,
I wrote a rather extensive paper on Rand and Nietzsche, a relationship you
may or may not have considered. While I find Any Rand's philosophy to be
overly simplistic and her approach to economics in some areas to assume
facts clearly contradicted by history, I know that her view is not so
simplistic as you represent below. As I said, I am very conversant with her
work, in toto.

Quaternions are nothing new.  Indeed they are from the 18th century. They
form a non-abelian group and are a way of handling imaginary numbers.
Pretty standard stuff for mathematicians.  Quaternions were not used by
Hamilton as part of a social theory. Hamilton was an Irish mathematician who
also wrote some rather poor poetry, but was not a social philosopher. He
left that to Swift, Pope and Dryden, at least in the British Isles in the
18th century. Pope and Dryden, while not exactly social philosophers, were
social critics in their writings.

You seem confuse socialism with what went on in the Soviet Union. They are
not similar.  Nor would Marx and Engles have approved of either the Soviet
or the Chinese (or even the Cuban) system of government. That doesn't make
Marx right or even a reasonably good economist. But it is useful to
understand that socialism was a philosophical "-ism" if the 19th century
which was general utopian in character. Marx and Engles named their notions
"communism" to distinguish them from what they consider to be inane
utopianism which was called socialism.

And you seem to confuse gambling with gaming. Since you are so fond of moral
judgements, why not pass judgement on the nineteenth century mathematicians,
such as Borel, who were involved in the creation of the concept of
probability.  From the humble beginnings of gaming came no less than quantum
mechanics. By the way, the Hamilton operator in quantum mechanics is a
different fellow than quaternions.
Ronald Davis, CMT
----- Original Message -----
From: <jddescript@...>
To: <Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, May 09, 2000 21:16 PM
Subject: Re: [Behavioral-Finance] Re: Volatility : what is behind ?


>
> If you don't understand the counting that underlies my [ART] approach
> to these predictions then that is a valid topic for discussion but
> why you think you can command me to discuss some special theory of
> your is beyond me. If you haven't gathered the ART = Ayn Rand Theory
> of philosophy including economics, focuses on distinguishing the good
> people [GPs} and the bad people {BPs] or king's men or socman who
> does exactly your approach of taking and commanding others rather
> than living by fair free voluntary informed exchange = free markets.
> ART tells us that by measuring the BPs presence we can predict the
> consequences for happiness. It's not the short term prediction that
> you seek [ the Ayn Rand predictions of the total economic collapse of
> russian socialism took some 50 years to play out with many saying it
> would never happen] but that is your business not mine. Why don't you
> just ignore my comments based on the ART in "Capitalism the Unknown
> Ideal" and go on with your gambling rhetoric?  The model of the
> socialist bubble dynamics that we see repeated around the world over
> and over is completely described by the old time counting methods
> with emphasis on the work of William Rowan Hamilton who did the
> Hamiltonian work in dynamics and whose quaternion methods describe
> the visualizations of the socialist bubbles. I doubt that anyone is
> interested, including yourself, in the details of such methods of
> description. Thus I discuss the resulting answers and not the
> counting methods. They allow us to judge our danger from the socman
> takings in a given situation, such as lootostate tickets.   JD
>
> -----------------------------------------------------------------
>
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: <jddescript@a...>
> > To: <Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com>
> > Sent: Monday, May 08, 2000 18:37 PM
> > Subject: [Behavioral-Finance] Re: Volatility : what is behind ?
> >
> >
> > > --- In Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com, "Peter GREENFINCH"
> > > <pgreenfinch@w...> wrote:
> > > > Volatility is more or less associated with risk
> > > > Volatility can be measured (prices' standard deviation in a
> given
> > > > period)
> > > > At least past volatility, and also implicit volatility, which
> can
> > > be
> > > > quite different
> > > > And short term and long term volatility, not the same animal
> those
> > > > two !
> > > > And the volatility of volatility (yes, volatility changes)
> > > > And upside and downside volatility (yes, volatility can be
> sticky,
> > > > biased upwards or downwards according to the periods, what can
> be
> > > > called "trends")
> > > > And the volatility of fundamentals, and the volatility of images
> > > > And the volatility of the market, and the volatility of each
> stock,
> > > > and their supposed correlation (hi, beta !).
> > > > Which shows there are several kind of volatilities,
> > > > A whole zoo of volatilities !
> > > > But what is behind it ?
> > > > Are there serious studies about the causes and factors
> > > (fundamental,
> > > > technical, psychological...) of volatility ?
> > > > PG
> > >
> > > ------------------------------------------------------------------
> --
> > >
> > > Certainly the causes of uncertainties are a complex
> > > study but a few things are clear. Any time magic is
> > > involved by deliberate manipulation or by apparently
> > > accidental hype then there is huge volitility. Think
> > > of the manipulator's paradise; vegas. One supposedly
> > > has an "opportunity" to become king's rich for almost
> > > no effort, it may even be a "fun" game! This something
> > > -for-nothing king's con is in a sense completely
> > > predicable. On average the rake at vegas will be about
> > > 60% of every wager made and since people tend to become
> > > frustrated at continual loss they will usually splurge
> > > and lose it all in a few massive "bets". Thus measure
> > > the magic! How often and who keeps saying "someone
> > > always WINS!" Thus put a king's con measure on the
> > > volitility by the degree of distance of the magic
> > > king's market from a free, fair value for value
> > > exchange market. We can say that to the extent that
> > > the socialists are under control in vegas and they are
> > > satisfied with the average looting then it is a 60%
> > > king's men volital market magic situation. In actuality
> > > the socialist will always gather at the looting feast
> > > and many will be breaking legs and all the other
> > > socialist tactics. The loot is never enough for the
> > > king's men, for socman [social manipulator].
> > >
> > > -------------------------------------------------------------
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ------------------------------------------------------------------
> ------
> > > You have a voice mail message waiting for you at iHello.com:
> > > http://click.egroups.com/1/3555/4/_/_/_/957836290/
> > > ------------------------------------------------------------------
> ------
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > Behavioral-Finance-unsubscribe@egroups.com
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Remember four years of good friends, bad clothes, explosive chemistry
> experiments.
> http://click.egroups.com/1/4051/4/_/_/_/957932283/
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> Behavioral-Finance-unsubscribe@egroups.com
>
>
>
>

--- In Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com, "eric.ronot" <eric.ronot@w...>
wrote:
> c'est en anglois cette liste ;)
>
Yessir / oui M'ssieur!
At least we try / Du moins on essaye! :)
All the best / Amicalement

----- Original Message -----

From: Peter GREENFINCH

To: Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com

Sent: Wednesday, May 10, 2000 9:10 AM

Subject: Re: [Behavioral-Finance] Re: Volatility : what is behind ?

I'm sorry, but if you don't explain any method (from you or Hamilton,
whatever) or give some interesting figures (well, finance always
starts and ends in numbers), things will not go very far and you will
quickly be marginalised in the debate. It's not what you want, no ?

--- In Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com, jddescript@a... wrote:
> -------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> If you don't understand the counting that underlies my [ART]
approach
> to these predictions then that is a valid topic for discussion but
> why you think you can command me to discuss some special theory of
> your is beyond me. If you haven't gathered the ART = Ayn Rand
Theory
> of philosophy including economics, focuses on distinguishing the
good
> people [GPs} and the bad people {BPs] or king's men or socman who
> does exactly your approach of taking and commanding others rather
> than living by fair free voluntary informed exchange = free markets.
> ART tells us that by measuring the BPs presence we can predict the
> consequences for happiness. It's not the short term prediction that
> you seek [ the Ayn Rand predictions of the total economic collapse
of
> russian socialism took some 50 years to play out with many saying
it
> would never happen] but that is your business not mine. Why don't
you
> just ignore my comments based on the ART in "Capitalism the Unknown
> Ideal" and go on with your gambling rhetoric?  The model of the
> socialist bubble dynamics that we see repeated around the world
over
> and over is completely described by the old time counting methods
> with emphasis on the work of William Rowan Hamilton who did the
> Hamiltonian work in dynamics and whose quaternion methods describe
> the visualizations of the socialist bubbles. I doubt that anyone is
> interested, including yourself, in the details of such methods of
> description. Thus I discuss the resulting answers and not the
> counting methods. They allow us to judge our danger from the socman
> takings in a given situation, such as lootostate tickets.   JD

---

---

To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
Behavioral-Finance-unsubscribe@egroups.com

I'm sorry, but if you don't explain any method (from you or Hamilton,
whatever) or give some interesting figures (well, finance always
starts and ends in numbers), things will not go very far and you will
quickly be marginalised in the debate. It's not what you want, no ?

--- In Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com, jddescript@a... wrote:
> -------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> If you don't understand the counting that underlies my [ART]
approach
> to these predictions then that is a valid topic for discussion but
> why you think you can command me to discuss some special theory of
> your is beyond me. If you haven't gathered the ART = Ayn Rand
Theory
> of philosophy including economics, focuses on distinguishing the
good
> people [GPs} and the bad people {BPs] or king's men or socman who
> does exactly your approach of taking and commanding others rather
> than living by fair free voluntary informed exchange = free markets.
> ART tells us that by measuring the BPs presence we can predict the
> consequences for happiness. It's not the short term prediction that
> you seek [ the Ayn Rand predictions of the total economic collapse
of
> russian socialism took some 50 years to play out with many saying
it
> would never happen] but that is your business not mine. Why don't
you
> just ignore my comments based on the ART in "Capitalism the Unknown
> Ideal" and go on with your gambling rhetoric?  The model of the
> socialist bubble dynamics that we see repeated around the world
over
> and over is completely described by the old time counting methods
> with emphasis on the work of William Rowan Hamilton who did the
> Hamiltonian work in dynamics and whose quaternion methods describe
> the visualizations of the socialist bubbles. I doubt that anyone is
> interested, including yourself, in the details of such methods of
> description. Thus I discuss the resulting answers and not the
> counting methods. They allow us to judge our danger from the socman
> takings in a given situation, such as lootostate tickets.   JD

--- In Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com, "PatiB" <rondavis@s...> wrote:

> Why don't you get of the pseudo-philosophy and focus on what can be
proven
> mathematically?
>
> Ronald Davis, CMT
-------------------------------------------------------------------

If you don't understand the counting that underlies my [ART] approach
to these predictions then that is a valid topic for discussion but
why you think you can command me to discuss some special theory of
your is beyond me. If you haven't gathered the ART = Ayn Rand Theory
of philosophy including economics, focuses on distinguishing the good
people [GPs} and the bad people {BPs] or king's men or socman who
does exactly your approach of taking and commanding others rather
than living by fair free voluntary informed exchange = free markets.
ART tells us that by measuring the BPs presence we can predict the
consequences for happiness. It's not the short term prediction that
you seek [ the Ayn Rand predictions of the total economic collapse of
russian socialism took some 50 years to play out with many saying it
would never happen] but that is your business not mine. Why don't you
just ignore my comments based on the ART in "Capitalism the Unknown
Ideal" and go on with your gambling rhetoric?  The model of the
socialist bubble dynamics that we see repeated around the world over
and over is completely described by the old time counting methods
with emphasis on the work of William Rowan Hamilton who did the
Hamiltonian work in dynamics and whose quaternion methods describe
the visualizations of the socialist bubbles. I doubt that anyone is
interested, including yourself, in the details of such methods of
description. Thus I discuss the resulting answers and not the
counting methods. They allow us to judge our danger from the socman
takings in a given situation, such as lootostate tickets.   JD

-----------------------------------------------------------------

> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <jddescript@a...>
> To: <Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com>
> Sent: Monday, May 08, 2000 18:37 PM
> Subject: [Behavioral-Finance] Re: Volatility : what is behind ?
>
>
> > --- In Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com, "Peter GREENFINCH"
> > <pgreenfinch@w...> wrote:
> > > Volatility is more or less associated with risk
> > > Volatility can be measured (prices' standard deviation in a
given
> > > period)
> > > At least past volatility, and also implicit volatility, which
can
> > be
> > > quite different
> > > And short term and long term volatility, not the same animal
those
> > > two !
> > > And the volatility of volatility (yes, volatility changes)
> > > And upside and downside volatility (yes, volatility can be
sticky,
> > > biased upwards or downwards according to the periods, what can
be
> > > called "trends")
> > > And the volatility of fundamentals, and the volatility of images
> > > And the volatility of the market, and the volatility of each
stock,
> > > and their supposed correlation (hi, beta !).
> > > Which shows there are several kind of volatilities,
> > > A whole zoo of volatilities !
> > > But what is behind it ?
> > > Are there serious studies about the causes and factors
> > (fundamental,
> > > technical, psychological...) of volatility ?
> > > PG
> >
> > ------------------------------------------------------------------
--
> >
> > Certainly the causes of uncertainties are a complex
> > study but a few things are clear. Any time magic is
> > involved by deliberate manipulation or by apparently
> > accidental hype then there is huge volitility. Think
> > of the manipulator's paradise; vegas. One supposedly
> > has an "opportunity" to become king's rich for almost
> > no effort, it may even be a "fun" game! This something
> > -for-nothing king's con is in a sense completely
> > predicable. On average the rake at vegas will be about
> > 60% of every wager made and since people tend to become
> > frustrated at continual loss they will usually splurge
> > and lose it all in a few massive "bets". Thus measure
> > the magic! How often and who keeps saying "someone
> > always WINS!" Thus put a king's con measure on the
> > volitility by the degree of distance of the magic
> > king's market from a free, fair value for value
> > exchange market. We can say that to the extent that
> > the socialists are under control in vegas and they are
> > satisfied with the average looting then it is a 60%
> > king's men volital market magic situation. In actuality
> > the socialist will always gather at the looting feast
> > and many will be breaking legs and all the other
> > socialist tactics. The loot is never enough for the
> > king's men, for socman [social manipulator].
> >
> > -------------------------------------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ------------------------------------------------------------------
------
> > You have a voice mail message waiting for you at iHello.com:
> > http://click.egroups.com/1/3555/4/_/_/_/957836290/
> > ------------------------------------------------------------------
------
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > Behavioral-Finance-unsubscribe@egroups.com
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >

Neat!  It will likely be a couple of days before I get to look at the
article, and the weekend before I can spend time with it. but it sound very
interesting.

A lot of trading seems to be position size.  If one has the bankroll to take
hits, and keeps size small according to bankroll and only sells in high
volatility then selling bracketed pairs can be profitable.

bracketed pairs ---> say gold (bad current trade - low volatility) is priced
at 300 (futures) then one might sell a 320 or 340 call and a 280 or 260 put.
If price moves beyond a strike price, buy back the original pair,
re-bracket.
Ronald Davis, CMT
----- Original Message -----
From: "pgreenfinch" <pgreenfinch@...>
To: <Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, May 09, 2000 8:58 AM
Subject: Re: [Behavioral-Finance] Re: Volatility: what is behind?


>
> -----Message d'origine-----
> De : PatiB <rondavis@...>
> À : Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com <Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com>
> Date : mardi 9 mai 2000 17:07
> Objet : Re: [Behavioral-Finance] Re: Volatility: what is behind?
>
>
> >
> >Right now, the most that can be said is that volatility cycles between
high
> >and low. It may well be that the cycles are focused on strange
attractors,
> >but even if that is the case, about the best that can be done is to
> >ascertain limit cycles.
> >
> I like this idea of attractors from the dynamic complexity threory. I
think
> the attractors are higher or lower levels of equilibrium (high and low
> states of the cycles, or more or less stables intermediate steps)
> >
> By the way, I found an interesting paper
> http://www-econ.stanford.edu/faculty/workp/swp98013.html
> It links low volatility with periods of consensus (I would say widespread
> greed or widespread fear) and high volatility with periods of widespread
> doubts / uncertainties with a lack of consensus (I would say, a draw
between
> greed and fear, until a new stable consensus arise). I would add, to fit
> what you say about attractors, high volatility seems to mean hesitation
> between two attractors.
> Aother interesting thing in this paper is that high volatility could
happen
> when risk premium are low, which is in contradiction with the efficient
> market theory (but here again the reason could be the confusion between
> short term and long term volatiility)
>
> >In the options arena, I would suggest the ideal (I have no idea if
anything
> >even approaching this can be achieved) would be "aha, volatility is high
> and
> >we are probably 5 to 10 days from a peak." "5" and "10" are intended as
> >dummy variables here.  The underlying notion is to sell options moving
into
> >the volatility peak, then watch while premiums collapse.  Watch and
collect
> >the reward.
> >
> That seems a good approach, with no guarantee of course :)
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> You have a voice mail message waiting for you at iHello.com:
> http://click.egroups.com/1/3555/4/_/_/_/957888983/
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> Behavioral-Finance-unsubscribe@egroups.com
>
>
>
>
>

-----Message d'origine-----
De : PatiB <rondavis@...>
À : Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com <Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com>
Date : mardi 9 mai 2000 17:07
Objet : Re: [Behavioral-Finance] Re: Volatility: what is behind?


>
>Right now, the most that can be said is that volatility cycles between high
>and low. It may well be that the cycles are focused on strange attractors,
>but even if that is the case, about the best that can be done is to
>ascertain limit cycles.
>
I like this idea of attractors from the dynamic complexity threory. I think
the attractors are higher or lower levels of equilibrium (high and low
states of the cycles, or more or less stables intermediate steps)
>
By the way, I found an interesting paper
http://www-econ.stanford.edu/faculty/workp/swp98013.html
It links low volatility with periods of consensus (I would say widespread
greed or widespread fear) and high volatility with periods of widespread
doubts / uncertainties with a lack of consensus (I would say, a draw between
greed and fear, until a new stable consensus arise). I would add, to fit
what you say about attractors, high volatility seems to mean hesitation
between two attractors.
Aother interesting thing in this paper is that high volatility could happen
when risk premium are low, which is in contradiction with the efficient
market theory (but here again the reason could be the confusion between
short term and long term volatiility)

>In the options arena, I would suggest the ideal (I have no idea if anything
>even approaching this can be achieved) would be "aha, volatility is high
and
>we are probably 5 to 10 days from a peak." "5" and "10" are intended as
>dummy variables here.  The underlying notion is to sell options moving into
>the volatility peak, then watch while premiums collapse.  Watch and collect
>the reward.
>
That seems a good approach, with no guarantee of course :)

"Prediction" is a tough business. Mind you, I'm definitely not an Efficient
Market Hypothesis person, but prediction with any degree of accuracy is
pretty tough business.

Right now, the most that can be said is that volatility cycles between high
and low. It may well be that the cycles are focused on strange attractors,
but even if that is the case, about the best that can be done is to
ascertain limit cycles.

I have been talking about prediction of the "on May 21st at 1100 xyz will
happen." Short term predictability may be more achievable.  What I have in
mind is the "aha, volatility is beginning to rise, therefore...." sort of
predictability. To make money in outrights, direction is necessary.

In the options arena, I would suggest the ideal (I have no idea if anything
even approaching this can be achieved) would be "aha, volatility is high and
we are probably 5 to 10 days from a peak." "5" and "10" are intended as
dummy variables here.  The underlying notion is to sell options moving into
the volatility peak, then watch while premiums collapse.  Watch and collect
the reward.

Or is some other game afoot in this forum?

Ronald Davis, CMT
----- Original Message -----
From: "Andrew Peskin" <Andrew@...>
To: <Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, May 09, 2000 7:14 AM
Subject: [Behavioral-Finance] Re: Volatility: what is behind?


> Why don't we all take a deep breath here ....
>
> I really do not think that hurling insults back and forth on the list
benefits
> anyone involved.
>
> I would imagine that all of the list members would benefit more, if,
instead of
> accusing one another of ignorance, each participant in this discussion
would
> simply illustrate and support his point of view in a clear educational
> framework.  That would open up the discussion, as we would all be better
> informed of what the other's viewpoint actually was.
>
> The volatility of the financial markets may be one of the most important
market
> measurements.  We would all be better off, if we could more clearly
understand
> the nature and mathematics of measuring, quantifying, and predicting
volatility.
>
> What do you say ...?
>
> Regards,
>
> Andrew
>
> PatiB wrote:
>
> > If you're that mathematically ignorant, I suggest you go back to school.
> > Ronald Davis, CMT
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: <editorial@...>
> > To: "Behavioral Finance" <Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com>
> > Sent: Tuesday, May 09, 2000 3:41 AM
> > Subject: Re: [Behavioral-Finance] Volatility : what is behind ?
> >
> > >
> > >
> > > Everything he said can be proven mathematically.  I don't see anything
> > "pseudo" in his post.
> > >
> > > Why don't you stop criticizing the posts of others and make your own
> > statement?
> > >
> > >
> > > OM
> > >
> > >
> > >  ---- Ron wrote:
> > > > Why don't you get of the pseudo-philosophy and focus >on what can be
> > proven mathematically?
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > >
> > > > Certainly the causes of uncertainties are a complex
> > > > study but a few things are clear. Any time magic is
> > > > involved by deliberate manipulation or by apparently
> > > > accidental hype then there is huge volitility. Think
> > > > of the manipulator's paradise; vegas. One supposedly
> > > > has an "opportunity" to become king's rich for almost
> > > > no effort, it may even be a "fun" game! This something
> > > > -for-nothing king's con is in a sense completely
> > > > predicable. On average the rake at vegas will be about
> > > > 60% of every wager made and since people tend to
> > > > become frustrated at continual loss they will usually > splurge and
lose
> > it all in a few massive "bets". Thus
> > > > measure the magic! How often and who keeps
> > > > saying "someone always WINS!" Thus put a king's con
> > > > measure on the volitility by the degree of distance
> > > > of the magic king's market from a free, fair value
> > > > for value exchange market. We can say that to the
> > > > extent that the socialists are under control in vegas
> > > > and they are satisfied with the average looting then
> > > > it is a 60% king's men volital market magic
> > > > situation. In actuality the socialist will always
> > > > gather at the looting feast and many will be breaking
> > > > legs and all the other socialist tactics. The loot is
> > > > never enough for the king's men, for socman [social
> > > > manipulator].
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Would you like to save big on your phone bill -- and keep on saving
> more each month? Join beMANY! Our huge buying group gives you Long
Distance
> rates which fall monthly, plus an extra $60 in FREE calls!
> http://click.egroups.com/1/2567/4/_/_/_/957882027/
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> Behavioral-Finance-unsubscribe@egroups.com
>
>
>
>
>

Why don't we all take a deep breath here ....

I really do not think that hurling insults back and forth on the list benefits
anyone involved.

I would imagine that all of the list members would benefit more, if, instead of
accusing one another of ignorance, each participant in this discussion would
simply illustrate and support his point of view in a clear educational
framework.  That would open up the discussion, as we would all be better
informed of what the other's viewpoint actually was.

The volatility of the financial markets may be one of the most important market
measurements.  We would all be better off, if we could more clearly understand
the nature and mathematics of measuring, quantifying, and predicting volatility.

What do you say ...?

Regards,

Andrew

PatiB wrote:

> If you're that mathematically ignorant, I suggest you go back to school.
> Ronald Davis, CMT
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <editorial@...>
> To: "Behavioral Finance" <Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, May 09, 2000 3:41 AM
> Subject: Re: [Behavioral-Finance] Volatility : what is behind ?
>
> >
> >
> > Everything he said can be proven mathematically.  I don't see anything
> "pseudo" in his post.
> >
> > Why don't you stop criticizing the posts of others and make your own
> statement?
> >
> >
> > OM
> >
> >
> >  ---- Ron wrote:
> > > Why don't you get of the pseudo-philosophy and focus >on what can be
> proven mathematically?
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > >
> > > Certainly the causes of uncertainties are a complex
> > > study but a few things are clear. Any time magic is
> > > involved by deliberate manipulation or by apparently
> > > accidental hype then there is huge volitility. Think
> > > of the manipulator's paradise; vegas. One supposedly
> > > has an "opportunity" to become king's rich for almost
> > > no effort, it may even be a "fun" game! This something
> > > -for-nothing king's con is in a sense completely
> > > predicable. On average the rake at vegas will be about
> > > 60% of every wager made and since people tend to
> > > become frustrated at continual loss they will usually > splurge and lose
> it all in a few massive "bets". Thus
> > > measure the magic! How often and who keeps
> > > saying "someone always WINS!" Thus put a king's con
> > > measure on the volitility by the degree of distance
> > > of the magic king's market from a free, fair value
> > > for value exchange market. We can say that to the
> > > extent that the socialists are under control in vegas
> > > and they are satisfied with the average looting then
> > > it is a 60% king's men volital market magic
> > > situation. In actuality the socialist will always
> > > gather at the looting feast and many will be breaking
> > > legs and all the other socialist tactics. The loot is
> > > never enough for the king's men, for socman [social
> > > manipulator].

If you're that mathematically ignorant, I suggest you go back to school.
Ronald Davis, CMT
----- Original Message -----
From: <editorial@...>
To: "Behavioral Finance" <Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, May 09, 2000 3:41 AM
Subject: Re: [Behavioral-Finance] Volatility : what is behind ?


>
>
> Everything he said can be proven mathematically.  I don't see anything
"pseudo" in his post.
>
> Why don't you stop criticizing the posts of others and make your own
statement?
>
>
> OM
>
>
>  ---- Ron wrote:
> > Why don't you get of the pseudo-philosophy and focus >on what can be
proven mathematically?
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> >
> > Certainly the causes of uncertainties are a complex
> > study but a few things are clear. Any time magic is
> > involved by deliberate manipulation or by apparently
> > accidental hype then there is huge volitility. Think
> > of the manipulator's paradise; vegas. One supposedly
> > has an "opportunity" to become king's rich for almost
> > no effort, it may even be a "fun" game! This something
> > -for-nothing king's con is in a sense completely
> > predicable. On average the rake at vegas will be about
> > 60% of every wager made and since people tend to
> > become frustrated at continual loss they will usually > splurge and lose
it all in a few massive "bets". Thus
> > measure the magic! How often and who keeps
> > saying "someone always WINS!" Thus put a king's con
> > measure on the volitility by the degree of distance
> > of the magic king's market from a free, fair value
> > for value exchange market. We can say that to the
> > extent that the socialists are under control in vegas
> > and they are satisfied with the average looting then
> > it is a 60% king's men volital market magic
> > situation. In actuality the socialist will always
> > gather at the looting feast and many will be breaking
> > legs and all the other socialist tactics. The loot is
> > never enough for the king's men, for socman [social
> > manipulator].
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------
> Get free personalized email at http://four11.iname.com
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Free, easy, fun!
> Email groups at eGroups
> Start one today at
> http://click.egroups.com/1/3946/4/_/_/_/957868865/
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> Behavioral-Finance-unsubscribe@egroups.com
>
>
>
>
>

Everything he said can be proven mathematically.  I don't see anything "pseudo"
in his post.

Why don't you stop criticizing the posts of others and make your own statement?


OM


  ---- Ron wrote:
> Why don't you get of the pseudo-philosophy and focus >on what can be proven
mathematically?
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>
> Certainly the causes of uncertainties are a complex
> study but a few things are clear. Any time magic is
> involved by deliberate manipulation or by apparently
> accidental hype then there is huge volitility. Think
> of the manipulator's paradise; vegas. One supposedly
> has an "opportunity" to become king's rich for almost
> no effort, it may even be a "fun" game! This something
> -for-nothing king's con is in a sense completely
> predicable. On average the rake at vegas will be about
> 60% of every wager made and since people tend to
> become frustrated at continual loss they will usually > splurge and lose it
all in a few massive "bets". Thus
> measure the magic! How often and who keeps
> saying "someone always WINS!" Thus put a king's con
> measure on the volitility by the degree of distance
> of the magic king's market from a free, fair value
> for value exchange market. We can say that to the
> extent that the socialists are under control in vegas
> and they are satisfied with the average looting then
> it is a 60% king's men volital market magic
> situation. In actuality the socialist will always
> gather at the looting feast and many will be breaking
> legs and all the other socialist tactics. The loot is
> never enough for the king's men, for socman [social
> manipulator].


------------------------------------------------------
Get free personalized email at http://four11.iname.com

-----Message d'origine-----
De : Leonard H Smith, CMT <lensmith@...>
À : Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com <Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com>
Date : mardi 9 mai 2000 03:22
Objet : [Behavioral-Finance] The Psychology of Finance

FYI...

 

-----Original Message-----
From: Zac [mailto:aan74@...]
Sent: Monday, May 08, 2000 4:28 PM
To: mtalist@...
Subject: [MTA] The Psychology of Finance

Not a bad book on market psychology: http://www.capitalideasonline.com/books/psychology.html The Psychology of Finance(14 March 2000)By Lars Tvede

Here is a table from the book "The Psychology of Finance", by Lars Tvede that links psychology and finance. The Psychology of Finance reveals an aspect of stock trading that is often misunderstood: the psychology of the market. Lars Tvede demystifies this phenomenon by showing readers how to interpret the market's characteristics and identify rational and irrational changes in attitudes. By learning how to predict psychologically based market changes, readers can use these changes to their advantage and trade them into profits. Go through the table, but more importantly read the book. Zac

---

---

To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
Behavioral-Finance-unsubscribe@egroups.com

Why don't you get of the pseudo-philosophy and focus on what can be proven
mathematically?

Ronald Davis, CMT
----- Original Message -----
From: <jddescript@...>
To: <Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com>
Sent: Monday, May 08, 2000 18:37 PM
Subject: [Behavioral-Finance] Re: Volatility : what is behind ?


> --- In Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com, "Peter GREENFINCH"
> <pgreenfinch@w...> wrote:
> > Volatility is more or less associated with risk
> > Volatility can be measured (prices' standard deviation in a given
> > period)
> > At least past volatility, and also implicit volatility, which can
> be
> > quite different
> > And short term and long term volatility, not the same animal those
> > two !
> > And the volatility of volatility (yes, volatility changes)
> > And upside and downside volatility (yes, volatility can be sticky,
> > biased upwards or downwards according to the periods, what can be
> > called "trends")
> > And the volatility of fundamentals, and the volatility of images
> > And the volatility of the market, and the volatility of each stock,
> > and their supposed correlation (hi, beta !).
> > Which shows there are several kind of volatilities,
> > A whole zoo of volatilities !
> > But what is behind it ?
> > Are there serious studies about the causes and factors
> (fundamental,
> > technical, psychological...) of volatility ?
> > PG
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Certainly the causes of uncertainties are a complex
> study but a few things are clear. Any time magic is
> involved by deliberate manipulation or by apparently
> accidental hype then there is huge volitility. Think
> of the manipulator's paradise; vegas. One supposedly
> has an "opportunity" to become king's rich for almost
> no effort, it may even be a "fun" game! This something
> -for-nothing king's con is in a sense completely
> predicable. On average the rake at vegas will be about
> 60% of every wager made and since people tend to become
> frustrated at continual loss they will usually splurge
> and lose it all in a few massive "bets". Thus measure
> the magic! How often and who keeps saying "someone
> always WINS!" Thus put a king's con measure on the
> volitility by the degree of distance of the magic
> king's market from a free, fair value for value
> exchange market. We can say that to the extent that
> the socialists are under control in vegas and they are
> satisfied with the average looting then it is a 60%
> king's men volital market magic situation. In actuality
> the socialist will always gather at the looting feast
> and many will be breaking legs and all the other
> socialist tactics. The loot is never enough for the
> king's men, for socman [social manipulator].
>
> -------------------------------------------------------------
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> You have a voice mail message waiting for you at iHello.com:
> http://click.egroups.com/1/3555/4/_/_/_/957836290/
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> Behavioral-Finance-unsubscribe@egroups.com
>
>
>
>
>

Hi! I'd like to invite you all to join my computational finance list
at

http://www.egroups.com/group/comp-finance

Ed Borasky
znmeb@...

--- In Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com, "Peter GREENFINCH"
<pgreenfinch@w...> wrote:
> Volatility is more or less associated with risk
> Volatility can be measured (prices' standard deviation in a given
> period)
> At least past volatility, and also implicit volatility, which can
be
> quite different
> And short term and long term volatility, not the same animal those
> two !
> And the volatility of volatility (yes, volatility changes)
> And upside and downside volatility (yes, volatility can be sticky,
> biased upwards or downwards according to the periods, what can be
> called "trends")
> And the volatility of fundamentals, and the volatility of images
> And the volatility of the market, and the volatility of each stock,
> and their supposed correlation (hi, beta !).
> Which shows there are several kind of volatilities,
> A whole zoo of volatilities !
> But what is behind it ?
> Are there serious studies about the causes and factors
(fundamental,
> technical, psychological...) of volatility ?
> PG

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Certainly the causes of uncertainties are a complex
study but a few things are clear. Any time magic is
involved by deliberate manipulation or by apparently
accidental hype then there is huge volitility. Think
of the manipulator's paradise; vegas. One supposedly
has an "opportunity" to become king's rich for almost
no effort, it may even be a "fun" game! This something
-for-nothing king's con is in a sense completely
predicable. On average the rake at vegas will be about
60% of every wager made and since people tend to become
frustrated at continual loss they will usually splurge
and lose it all in a few massive "bets". Thus measure
the magic! How often and who keeps saying "someone
always WINS!" Thus put a king's con measure on the
volitility by the degree of distance of the magic
king's market from a free, fair value for value
exchange market. We can say that to the extent that
the socialists are under control in vegas and they are
satisfied with the average looting then it is a 60%
king's men volital market magic situation. In actuality
the socialist will always gather at the looting feast
and many will be breaking legs and all the other
socialist tactics. The loot is never enough for the
king's men, for socman [social manipulator].

-------------------------------------------------------------

"The Psychology of Finance"
by Lars Tvede

http://www.capitalideasonline.com/books/psychology.html

Volatility is more or less associated with risk
Volatility can be measured (prices' standard deviation in a given
period)
At least past volatility, and also implicit volatility, which can be
quite different
And short term and long term volatility, not the same animal those
two !
And the volatility of volatility (yes, volatility changes)
And upside and downside volatility (yes, volatility can be sticky,
biased upwards or downwards according to the periods, what can be
called "trends")
And the volatility of fundamentals, and the volatility of images
And the volatility of the market, and the volatility of each stock,
and their supposed correlation (hi, beta !).
Which shows there are several kind of volatilities,
A whole zoo of volatilities !
But what is behind it ?
Are there serious studies about the causes and factors (fundamental,
technical, psychological...) of volatility ?
PG

I'm attending my last academic year at economic university; I'm
interested in the in behavioral finance because this is the subject
of my thesis(my final work at University).I thank you if you could
help me finding sources (articles,reports,links...) for my work.
Regards,
Marco Barindelli.

CIAO a tutti!!
Sono uno studente di economia,e nutro un certo interese per la
behavioral finance, titolo della mia tesi; Vi sarei molto grato se mi
aiutaste a trovare del materiale interessante.

GRAZIE MILLE.

Marco Barindelli

test

--- In Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com, "Peter GREENFINCH"
<pgreenfinch@w...> wrote:
> Social psychology is a branch of knowledge,
> not very old (a century or so) crushed between
> the 2 mammouth domains of psychology and sociology.
>
> It needs some breathing space, as it explains a lot
> of things happening:
> - in little groups : families, work groups, other groups
> - but also in the broader social life : politics, economics,
> marketing, finance, and so on
>
> Soc. Psy. is more a science than its two mammouths
> competitors, as it is based largely on "lab" experiments
> with human groups
> But, because this science looks a little like playing with caged
> rats, and because it reveals, among others,
> - irrational behaviors of groups, masses and crowds,
> - and manipulation methods,
> It is considered a bit devilish, provocative and
> antisocial and thus not much talked about,
> like a naughty little family secret. Maybe also
> manipulators are happy that is not so well known, so as
> to keep the tools for themselves.
> To my opinion, it should be taught in all schools in democratic
> countries, precisely to warn people and guarantee democracy.
>
> I guess we will have here some revealing discussions
> about it, and about the part it plays in financial markets.
> The problem of course is to transform this "soft" science
> into "hard" numbers,
> As what investors are interested in is, logically, numbers.
> I made a tentative approach with my "stock image coefficient"
> (see links), but there is certainly more to do.
> Also, some universitarians (see other links) tried to measure
> these social biases in market prices.
> Technical analysis also seems to take some of its concepts
> from this approach.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

The "hard numbers" may not be as hard(difficult) as you suggest.
If we can understand the Ayn Rand Theory [ART] that the root of all
evil = the socman [social manipulator] is an objectively determined
actor on the human stager then our first problem is to count them up.
How many are involved in any activity because that will tell us the
likeluyhood that they will be able to steasl from us in the activity.
Yes! they are very, very smart and you have identified two of the
academic training grounds where they learn how to manipulate, to herd
us. In another thread I was given a quote from one of these socman or
king's man about how they view average people in the markets of their
manipulations, their king's markets:

> In article <8f3qh6$a57$1@...>,
>   cdegnen@... wrote:
> > Here's a quote for you JD:
> >
> > "I think the subject which will be of most importance politically
is
> > mass psychology....Although this science will be diligently
studied,
> > it will be rigidly confined to the governing class. The populace
will
> > not be allowed to know how its convictions were generated."
> >
> > Bertrand Russell in The Impact of Science on Society
> >
>

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Of course Orwell gave one of the best views of the king's markets
after he studied the similarities of hitler socialism and stalin
socialism during the Spain run up to WW II. Thus a good way to start
is to identify and count the evil socman. If they are present they
will always poison the well to some extent.

Good seeing.   JD

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Social psychology is a branch of knowledge,
not very old (a century or so) crushed between
the 2 mammouth domains of psychology and sociology.

It needs some breathing space, as it explains a lot
of things happening:
- in little groups : families, work groups, other groups
- but also in the broader social life : politics, economics,
marketing, finance, and so on

Soc. Psy. is more a science than its two mammouths
competitors, as it is based largely on "lab" experiments
with human groups
But, because this science looks a little like playing with caged
rats, and because it reveals, among others,
- irrational behaviors of groups, masses and crowds,
- and manipulation methods,
It is considered a bit devilish, provocative and
antisocial and thus not much talked about,
like a naughty little family secret. Maybe also
manipulators are happy that is not so well known, so as
to keep the tools for themselves.
To my opinion, it should be taught in all schools in democratic
countries, precisely to warn people and guarantee democracy.

I guess we will have here some revealing discussions
about it, and about the part it plays in financial markets.
The problem of course is to transform this "soft" science
into "hard" numbers,
As what investors are interested in is, logically, numbers.
I made a tentative approach with my "stock image coefficient"
(see links), but there is certainly more to do.
Also, some universitarians (see other links) tried to measure
these social biases in market prices.
Technical analysis also seems to take some of its concepts
from this approach.

Welcome to the new subscribers.
We are now twelve, after just one day.
Thanks also for the first messages received,
I hope they will start a good debate
Now there are nine links in behavioral finance and
related topics(click "links" in the group page)
As this is still the week-end, let me reproduce a
little black humor story I used in some newsgroups
some weeks ago

Stocks found dead: whodunnit ?

Sherlock found four suspects, but he hesitates:

*Fundamentals ?
- But they had an alibi: there were no fundamentals,
just business plans!
- Dear Watson, I always look suspiciously at fundamentals,
and even at the lack of them.

*Technical factors, such as liquidity ?
- Well, how come liquidity ran away, precisely the day people
wanted to start selling? And where did liquidity came from,
when the market was buoyant ?
- From you and me, you stupid!
- Dear Columbo, I'm always suspicious about liquidity,
even if I'm the one who provides it.

*Market sentiment?
- How come it changed direction, from bull to bear? Well,
in the first place,how come it took the previous direction?
- Dear Poirot, I always found bulls and bears suspicious
animals, even if I am one of them.

*Market manipulators?
- How come so many gurus, media, funds, brokers said one
thing and did another? Just a lack of attention, I suppose.
- Dear Perry Mason, I am always suspicious of advices that
are given to me for my best interest.

A hard case for Sherlock.
Maybe the Behavioral-Finance group will help him to solve it ?

--- In Behavioral-Finance@egroups.com, "Peter GREENFINCH"
<pgreenfinch@w...> wrote:
> I read several good commentaries about Robert Shiller's
> book "Irrational exuberance" published in the US
> two months ago.
> It is about the present stock bubble.
> The general idea seems to be that it is a kind of ponzi
> scheme, the money gained by the first ones that go out
> comes from the new entrants, who expect in their turn
> to sell to those that will enter later and so on.
> Apart that simple idea, is there more in this book ?
> Did somebody read it ?

-----------------------------------------------------------------

I haven't read it but would be interested in particular
methods of average people optimum response to the unusual
situation which many can see. The book title must be a
follow-on to a Greenspan speech and it is appropriate since
Greenspan has been set up to be the fall guy for the
results of the manipulations. Whether he deserves it or not
is one of the old arguments about do we blame the efficient
german gas chamber tender or those who assigned him the job.

The unifying methods that I believe explains the situations
as well as the remedies for average people is the Ayn Rand
Theories [ART] including her book on economics "Capitalism
the Unknown Ideal".

The unifying model that I have found in these works is the
image of the socialist bubble dynamics. Apparently the
patterns are always the same only the sizes and the
rapidities vary historically. All the indicators are that
this world socialist bubble implosion will make the
depression seem like child's or keynesian "play".

Good seeing.   JD

------------------------------------------------------------------

I wish to apply the Ayn Rand Theories [ART] to the process of
identifying paper promise shills. These shills are seen any
time a manipulated market [also called a king's market as
opposed to a free people market] exists where the manipulator
rakes the pot unfairly for an appreciable part of the value
exchanged. The process may be authorized legal or unauthorized
illegal. An example exists on national channels in the US which
uses a typical king's greed hook to entice the unwarey into the
net of taking. This one promotes getting a critical mass. This
is supposed to instill the king's greed urge because one will
want a critical mass so they never have to work or effort again.
Do you smell a scam under way? Yes! so true! This one is mutual
funds to separate the saver from their retirment savings.

Good seeing.  JD

---------------------------------------------------------------------

I read several good commentaries about Robert Shiller's
book "Irrational exuberance" published in the US
two months ago.
It is about the present stock bubble.
The general idea seems to be that it is a kind of ponzi
scheme, the money gained by the first ones that go out
comes from the new entrants, who expect in their turn
to sell to those that will enter later and so on.
Apart that simple idea, is there more in this book ?
Did somebody read it ?

Hi/bonjour
Thanks to the early birds that were the first to subscribe
to this group
They are all French, that must be because of the time lag,
or because we had our pants worned off on the same benches
such as our lofty fr.misc.finance
And our "French touch" will be a great help, I guess
My first job has been to start a list of links
in behavioral finance.
You will find them by clickink "links"
(of course, where else?)
on the left frame of the group page
Thanks in advance for your own contributions
Sincerely, amicalement