Good example, Jeff. It is sure that bubbles, crash, and behavioral finance biases are something not exactly new. This pleads against the idea that biases get...
2186
leif_ericssen@...
May 2, 2001 12:05 am
My $0.02 - Fisher's probably less worried about his stock market predictions than most Forbes readers. His investment M.O is set up that chances are that even...
2187
Zac
aan74@...
May 2, 2001 9:34 am
... EMH adherents, flush with victory having dispatched with the _average_ trader's delusions, simply come up with yet another self-immunizing assumption to...
2188
Peter R. Locke
plocke@...
May 2, 2001 2:16 pm
Zac, It is not really a difference of opinion, but rather, interpretation. Even under the stringent EMH, some traders should be expected to earn above average...
2189
Zac
aan74@...
May 2, 2001 4:42 pm
Come on Peter, someone in your position should know that research in this area, academic or otherwise, isn't easily dismissed with the rather patronizing and...
2190
Peter R. Locke
plocke@...
May 2, 2001 7:04 pm
Zac, I guess I don't see what you're getting at. You seem to be completely ignoring the statistical reality, and I guess I'm not sure why you would want to...
2191
leif_ericssen@...
May 2, 2001 11:25 pm
Actually the "people do win lotteries" argument is a very much underused one in my experience that tends to be un-considered because people don't like the...
2192
Jeff Haferman
haferman@...
May 3, 2001 12:10 am
A site of possible interest: http://www.smartquant.com/...
2193
Ariel M. Viale
ariel@...
May 3, 2001 5:44 am
Zac, The 'differences in opinion', or put differently and better, the *comparative advantage* in terms of agent's differences in information which are "not...
2194
pgreenfinch@...
May 3, 2001 7:36 am
I agree, Ariel, with your oecumenical approach and joint hypothesis. I really think that : * War of religions are often futiles (although the may help to dig...
2195
Zac
aan74@...
May 3, 2001 9:13 am
You believe markets are efficient, I believe they are almost efficient. Most academics agree with you however, some do not and they are not arguing this at the...
2196
Gentle Ox
enchant@...
May 3, 2001 9:31 am
I am a trader and make money on the markets not been efficient! horses for courses.. Stephen...
2197
Zac
aan74@...
May 3, 2001 10:08 am
... Anomalies being traded out of the market is a very real problem. Having spent years researching this subject one can see this effect in the data on time...
2198
Zac
aan74@...
May 3, 2001 10:16 am
What is not clear is whether you are lucky or skillful, though it is more likely the be the former if you are drawing your conclusion from a small sample. It...
2199
Peter Locke
plocke@...
May 3, 2001 12:44 pm
THURSDAY 8:30 in D.C: Response to many. Interesting dialogue, somewhat circular, as we go round and round. But I do feel that as time passes the language is...
2200
Peter Locke
plocke@...
May 3, 2001 12:44 pm
... Interesting dialogue, somewhat circular, as we go round and round. But I do feel that as time passes the language is becoming more exact. Zac, I do not ...
2201
Gentle Ox
enchant@...
May 3, 2001 12:44 pm
After 18years of success,, one would say skill...luck has little if anything to do with making money consistently in the markets. Cheers Stephen...
2202
Gentle Ox
enchant@...
May 3, 2001 12:52 pm
In the market place what constitutes "a correct sample size"? .....each day is a new day....! How does one account for the psychology of the market place in ...
2203
Gentle Ox
enchant@...
May 3, 2001 12:53 pm
Is trading a science or an art? I contend it is a blend... Stephen...
2204
Gentle Ox
enchant@...
May 3, 2001 12:59 pm
Markets are not efficient....? a bit like looking at space thru a telescope at the night skies......when one knows where to look one can find simple and...
2205
Gentle Ox
enchant@...
May 3, 2001 1:07 pm
An earlier post talks about assumptions I make no assumptions trading If one listens to the market it will tell all......no magic,,,, no mirrors... just...
2206
Gentle Ox
enchant@...
May 3, 2001 1:12 pm
Over time I have often wondered into the university library and gone to the shelves that house interenational reseach papers on finance and even some quant and...
2207
Gentle Ox
enchant@...
May 3, 2001 1:52 pm
"Stocks are now at what looks like a permanent high plateau" -- noted economist Irving Fisher, 2 weeks before the 1929 stock market crash...
2208
leif_ericssen@...
May 3, 2001 4:33 pm
*raised eyebrows* seeing the volume of Stephen's posts - clearly someone touched a nerve Jan...
2209
leif_ericssen@...
May 3, 2001 4:39 pm
Re Aristotelian logic(sp), and wise minds who do recognise shades of gray - but too, perhaps we're cognitively colour blind? :) Jan ~yet another "perceptually...
2210
leif_ericssen@...
May 3, 2001 7:33 pm
... be realistic he _must_ account for others out there and _must_ assume that there will be eventual discovery of that inefficiency. The simple truth is that...
2211
pgreenfinch@...
May 3, 2001 8:51 pm
... Remembering Pete's post, perhaps we should consider the concept of ... That reminds me that we tried once, we little success, to make a poll on that...
2212
H. Mark Hubey
HubeyH@...
May 4, 2001 12:29 am
I think I have some general results concerning Risk Aversion models and utility functions. Where is a good place to try publishing? -- M. Hubey ...
2213
Dick March
rmarch@...
May 4, 2001 2:08 pm
In response to PG's reply to Jan's notion of part-efficient markets, as the one vote that the market is 100% efficient (offered only partly tongue in cheek), I...
2214
Martin Sewell
martin@...
May 4, 2001 4:01 pm
... Fama (1970): "A market in which prices always "fully reflect" available information is called "efficient."" Malkiel (1992): "A capital market is said to be...
