... rational anticipations become irrational, and bayesian probabilities improbable?...
3557
pgreenfinch
Feb 22, 2002 1:00 pm
From a BF addict, many thanks Martin for your initiative. I have put a link in the group's bookmark, with the following comment: Martin Sewell's site, one of...
3558
dohtyoung
Feb 22, 2002 1:25 pm
It seems that you have no reasonable basis to point out the weakness of Bayesian Analysis. Arnold Zellner(GSB, Univ. of Chicago) proved that Bayesian analysis ...
3559
Martin Sewell
martinsewell1
Feb 22, 2002 2:07 pm
... One should use the most appropriate tool for the job. ... Bayesian analysis can deal with anything, the principal difficulty lies in determining, or even...
3560
Martin Sewell
martinsewell1
Feb 22, 2002 3:11 pm
... Good point. However, _we_ can use the above in our prior. :-) Reagards Martin...
3561
Martin Sewell
martinsewell1
Feb 22, 2002 3:35 pm
... The copyright lies with the journals, but I'm not sufficiently risk adverse to let that get in the way of the freedom of information. :-) ... Many thanks!...
3562
Ariel M. Viale
ariel@...
Feb 22, 2002 7:31 pm
Howdy Peter the founder ! Why not the other way like "brits" - irrational expectations became very rational "ex-post" and "improbable" Bayesian probabilities...
3564
Nicolas Philippe ROLL...
nicolas_rolland
Feb 24, 2002 3:57 pm
My message is that the current form does fail... A simple example exists in the case of an invention, whose property goes to only one player. It would be wrong...
3567
Martin Sewell
martinsewell1
Feb 24, 2002 11:11 pm
... Post your abuse reports here: mail-abuse@... abuse@......
3568
Martin Sewell
martinsewell1
Feb 24, 2002 11:14 pm
... mail-abuse@... and abuse@... informed....
3569
Dalton Mota
thedalton1
Feb 25, 2002 1:19 pm
With respect to competition among firms, i belive the best approach should be a combined real-options/game-theoretical one. This is a new field of research, i...
3570
leif_ericssen
Feb 25, 2002 3:04 pm
... Changing the question yet again :), maybe an alternative interpretation is a situation of (more or less) rational expectations (and choices) based on a...
3571
leif_ericssen
Feb 25, 2002 3:10 pm
... Sorry, what are improbable bayesian probabilities? Jan...
3572
pgreenfinch
Feb 25, 2002 3:34 pm
... Well, the conditional probability of the DJ reaching 36000 grew everytime the DJ raised one step more. Except that it became improbable when the index...
3573
leif_ericssen
Feb 25, 2002 3:51 pm
... <leif_ericssen@y...> ... I think I see, thank you. To make sure I understand from your examples, you are talking about situations where people infer a...
3574
pgreenfinch
Feb 25, 2002 4:00 pm
... curve ... the ... Seems a good explanation Also forgetting about the possible boundaries of the curve either from the beginning, or gradually as time...
3575
leif_ericssen
Feb 25, 2002 5:01 pm
Hi Nicolas. (If I understand you) yes, I agree about the role of competition in options; obviously some options that are available to one party are also...
3576
leif_ericssen
Feb 25, 2002 5:29 pm
... <leif_ericssen@y...> ... I'm not statistical but I should think that statisticians are familiar with how to deal with such things as assumptions about ...
3577
Nicolas Philippe ROLL...
nicolas_rolland
Feb 25, 2002 9:30 pm
If you are long on some option, you can exercize people. if you are short, you can be exercized. Since the value of your investment is dependant on someone...
3578
pgreenfinch
Feb 26, 2002 9:50 am
Two years later (the killer germ became virulent in March 2000, after a long, acheless, incubation), we still see on their tumbs that epitaph: The trend was...
3579
laura stelluto
laurastelluto
Feb 26, 2002 12:53 pm
Dear Martin, I thank you again for havin replying! I finished that part of my thesis and I have considered the papers you had indicated. Thanks! Laura ... ...
3580
Alex Spiroglou
a_spiroglou@...
Feb 26, 2002 1:59 pm
_________________________________________________________________ MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: ...
3581
leif_ericssen
Feb 26, 2002 4:42 pm
... will, ... simple ... a ... But by that logic, insurance firms have their wealth controlled by the policy holders. In a way, I guess that's true, but I...
3582
leif_ericssen
Feb 26, 2002 4:45 pm
... *Shaking my head* Amazing, a few dot.coms actually made the mistake of reporting black ink, and others said they were in sight, giving the market an anchor...
3583
leif_ericssen
Feb 26, 2002 5:02 pm
... Thinking of 2 ways to play the fall of dot.communism: 1st, of course is looking at a contrarian argument for undervalued dot.coms among the survivors,...
3584
leif_ericssen
Feb 26, 2002 6:45 pm
... wrote: <snip> ... <snip> By other promising ideas/opportunities, I mean Non-dot.com. I think it's likely that part of the bubble inefficiency includes the ...
3585
pgreenfinch
Feb 26, 2002 6:51 pm
... is ... We are going (supposing I understood well) from financial inefficiencies to economic efficiencies (misallocation of resources), it seems. Good to...
3586
leif_ericssen
Feb 26, 2002 11:14 pm
... <leif_ericssen@y...> ... undervalued ... Dot.coms ... for ... other ... and ... time ... resources), ... (maybe) ... in ... the "long ... much ... (to ... ...
3587
Ariel M. Viale
ariel@...
Feb 27, 2002 3:54 pm
I didn't read it yet, but sounds interesting....at least he uses Martin's spelling behavio(u)r ;-) http://econwpa.wustl.edu/eprints/fin/papers/9808/9808001.abs...
3588
pgreenfinch
Feb 28, 2002 9:30 am
... discovery ... attention ... new ... Maybe there was some social hype about a thing that was supposed to make the whole world live together in a happy...
