... Perhaps you could expand on the above? Although the EMH is somewhat paradoxical, in the sense that it relies on the fact that a sufficient number of...
3678
Bob Bronson
bobbronson2001
Apr 7, 2002 4:21 pm
I agree, Martin. It takes a certain degree of non-belief to keep the markets efficient. If everyone believed the EMH, and acted accordingly, it would cease...
3679
leif_ericssen
Apr 8, 2002 3:14 am
I'm also interested in observing and modeling behaviour and tend to think that the results will show more at the individual stock level then in the aggregate. ...
3680
bartol00@...
bartol00
Apr 8, 2002 8:19 am
... In fact, I don't think psychological biases can cancel each other in the stock market! Because of imitation (but the arguments connected are much more...
3681
Bob Bronson
bobbronson2001
Apr 8, 2002 4:45 pm
Of course, you are correct. Individual cognitive and emotional biases become leveraged en mass with trend-following and herding. Shiller refers to information...
3682
raoul seashe
xkensmith
Apr 8, 2002 6:35 pm
I agree. They don't cancel out. Based on work I have done in market segmentation, I find that all markets respond to a mix of tangible and intangible motives....
3683
Bob Bronson
bobbronson2001
Apr 8, 2002 7:30 pm
One problem with polling is that respondents don't always tell the truth, or even know the truth about their cognitive, much less emotional biases. Who admits...
3684
leif_ericssen
Apr 8, 2002 9:16 pm
... individual ... (irrational ... in the stock ... complex), ... this is ... better, from ... overreaction Oh, individual psych bias _can_ cancel out, and in...
3685
plato363@...
stockguy_01085
Apr 8, 2002 9:34 pm
Does anyone here know of any source for information regarding the reluctance of selling stocks with low cost basises due to the tax consequences in the face of...
3686
leif_ericssen
Apr 8, 2002 9:42 pm
Yes, it's quite interesting, Bob, thanks. I have to agree that arguing that the valuation is distorted by super caps requires some real context, not just a...
3687
Martin Sewell
martinsewell1
Apr 8, 2002 10:11 pm
... Even in the above scenario (with correlated irrational investors), if close substitutes exist then (rational) arbitrageurs should bring the price back to...
3688
bartol00@...
bartol00
Apr 8, 2002 11:25 pm
... being this true, how can we explain web-stocks performances? I think arbitrageurs contribueted at several price booms...Efficiency entails that prices...
3689
leif_ericssen
Apr 10, 2002 3:12 am
... investors), if ... price ... think ... entails that ... whenever ... should react and ... not move ... terms, an ... completeness ... subjected to ... Hi...
3690
bartol00@...
bartol00
Apr 10, 2002 8:13 am
... But I agree with you! (maybe sometime the problem is also on my english..i mean, i'm not that able to develop fully my point of view, or maybe i'm just ...
3691
leif_ericssen
Apr 10, 2002 4:02 pm
... are 1st, arguing from hindsight and 2nd an anecdote. (True, it was a very dramatic thing and it wasn't busines as usual.) That said, sure one can point to...
3692
Francesca Bartoli
bartol00
Apr 10, 2002 6:13 pm
... at least, not me! rational choice = correct choice is the key assumption of traditional mainstream economic models, (and in traditional finance too,...
3693
ztrader
ztraderyah
Apr 10, 2002 7:58 pm
It seems that many traders believe in Fib retracements and use them in trading. I have been trying to track down any statistical analyses that might verify...
3694
raoul seashe
xkensmith
Apr 10, 2002 9:13 pm
This discussion is really quite interesting. However, with 2 differeing opinions it seems in danger of becoming trapped in its own "feedback loop";-)...
3695
jstouff
stouffj
Apr 10, 2002 9:45 pm
If you take any graph and calculate the Fib, you will be impressed by the importance of these lines as resistance and support zones. I personnally have a...
3696
leif_ericssen
Apr 10, 2002 9:49 pm
... assumption of traditional mainstream economic models, (and in traditional finance too, actually, that is, capm, emh, ... ... It's so annoying to have such...
3697
leif_ericssen
Apr 10, 2002 10:00 pm
... wrote: Being a Devil's Advocate: but the mass-psychology extremes eventually correct, so there has to be some test for an inefficient mkt. Public side,...
3698
ztrader
ztraderyah
Apr 10, 2002 10:36 pm
On Wednesday, April 10, 2002, 2:45:08 PM, jstouff wrote: j> If you take any graph and calculate the Fib, you will be impressed j> by the importance of these...
3699
Daniel Herlemont
dherlemont
Apr 10, 2002 11:32 pm
... yes ... and vice versa : we don't see things that are really here ... :) Let's take a simple example from Sornette's paper, uncorrelated times series are...
... JH> Try http://home.earthlink.net/~flahertyhsd/quiz.htm Yes, and this is just an overall impression. Try placing a moving average and asking if that...
3702
leif_ericssen
Apr 11, 2002 2:35 am
Why do you say that, Ken? Francesca has a good insight into the role of psychology and uncertainty in investor behaviour and perhaps in economic activity...
3703
lillemanfr
Apr 11, 2002 7:11 am
... wrote: Which sornette paper do you refer to, Daniel? Xavier. ... here ... :) ... times series ... 75% ... illusion and ... not so ... day, then ... ...
3704
RICARDO SOLORZANO ESP...
ricardosolorz
Apr 11, 2002 5:14 pm
Would anyone be so kind to tell me, where can I found the answer to the question "How behavioural finance has contributed to the understanding of the equity...
3705
Daniel Herlemont
dherlemont
Apr 11, 2002 6:15 pm
From: "lillemanfr" <xvanlaer@...> ... here it is : http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/0001324 I tested it on main indexes and stocks and works quite...
3706
Martin Sewell
martinsewell1
Apr 11, 2002 6:33 pm
... See "The Equity Risk Premium" by Bradford Cornell (Wiley, 1999) Also, some papers here: http://www.behaviouralfinance.net/papers/equity_premium/ Regards ...
