http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=502605
Disagreement, Tastes, and Asset Prices
EUGENE F. FAMA
KENNETH R. FRENCH
May 2004
Tuck Business School Working Paper No. 2004-03

Abstract:
Standard asset pricing models assume (i) that there is complete
agreement among investors about probability distributions of future
payoffs on assets, and (ii) investors choose asset holdings based
solely on anticipated payoffs; that is, investment assets are not
also consumption goods. Both assumptions are unrealistic. We provide
a simple framework for studying how disagreement and tastes for
assets as consumption goods can affect asset prices.

Peter

Hello,

I am new to this group and am just beginning to learn about the
fascinating field of BF. However, to remain open-minded, it seems
important to me to read both the pros and cons of the approach. A
recent article by Malkiel suggests that most behavioral anomalies can
only be seen after the fact, and that whatever investment strategy
based on some momentum that can be detected in advance would be wiped
out by the transaction costs. Can anyone comment?
This is the link to the article :  http://faculty-
gsb.stanford.edu/wolfers/POLECON527/documents/3.%20Session_03/Malkiel%
20(2003)%20-%20EMH%20and%20its%20critics%20-%20JEP.pdf

Best regards,
Joseph Wehbe

josephweb2001,ÄúºÃ£¡

  Malkiel give no consideration about the emerging market.


======= 2004-07-04 16:41:54 ÄúÔÚÀ´ÐÅÖÐдµÀ£º=======

>Hello,
>
>I am new to this group and am just beginning to learn about the
>fascinating field of BF. However, to remain open-minded, it seems
>important to me to read both the pros and cons of the approach. A
>recent article by Malkiel suggests that most behavioral anomalies can
>only be seen after the fact, and that whatever investment strategy
>based on some momentum that can be detected in advance would be wiped
>out by the transaction costs. Can anyone comment?
>This is the link to the article :  http://faculty-
>gsb.stanford.edu/wolfers/POLECON527/documents/3.%20Session_03/Malkiel%
>20(2003)%20-%20EMH%20and%20its%20critics%20-%20JEP.pdf
>
>Best regards,
>Joseph Wehbe
>
>
>
>
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¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡ÖÂ
Àñ£¡


¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡mnp01kdm
¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡mnp01kdm@...
¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡2004-07-04

Hello,

Did anyone read the article in Newsweek magazine (July 5 edition, P 42), "Mind
reading".

"Behavioral economics examines the Rational or Irrational Brain"

"A mathematically derived formula appears to be HARD WIRED into the primate
brain"

Any expert's comments?
CG

___[ Pub ]____________________________________________________________
Inscrivez-vous gratuitement sur Tandaime, Le site de rencontres !
http://rencontre.rencontres.com/index.php?origine=4

I respect Malkiel very much.  He is a brilliant scholar and has a
commonsense (very rare) approach to finance and investing.  He is
excellent to read whether or not you believe markets are efficient.
I think he is the best choice for perspective.

Jan


--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "josephweb2001"
<j.wehbe@w...> wrote:
> Hello,
>
> I am new to this group and am just beginning to learn about the
> fascinating field of BF. However, to remain open-minded, it seems
> important to me to read both the pros and cons of the approach. A
> recent article by Malkiel suggests that most behavioral anomalies
can
> only be seen after the fact, and that whatever investment strategy
> based on some momentum that can be detected in advance would be
wiped
> out by the transaction costs. Can anyone comment?
> This is the link to the article :  http://faculty-
> gsb.stanford.edu/wolfers/POLECON527/documents/3.%
20Session_03/Malkiel%
> 20(2003)%20-%20EMH%20and%20its%20critics%20-%20JEP.pdf
>
> Best regards,
> Joseph Wehbe

Hi, dear members and visitors!

Last month I said:
"I prepare the fireworks for the 50th month celebration"
Well seems we have vacations instead, as activity was scarce
this month. Maybe it will pick up after Summer, so that we
don't have to wait for the 100th month for the fireworks ;-))

1) Monthly stats

It was a draw again between  subscribers and unsubscribers
this month, with about 1360-1370 members.
The message activity was the most comatose ever, with
little over 20 messages (now totalling 6440)
Our sister list, Finance-academy still has around
230 members, and few messages.
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Finance-Academy

2) Group's existing resources, and their access

3a) Accessibility of yahoo group's resources

Access to polls, links and files needs a *yahoo ID/profile*.
To get it, click "account info" (in the group's homepage or
your "mygroups" page) and fill in the info you feel appropriate

3b) Your free BF resources: a short list
(regularly updated, and at your fingertips 24/7):

* Your "BF gallery" / FAQ with 400+ BF keywords.
It gets a lot of connections every day. Completion and
updates are done regularly, usually thanks to the group's
debates. Any suggestion to enhance definitions or enter
new keywords is welcome.
http://perso.wanadoo.fr/pgreenfinch/behavioral-finance.htm

* Your BF Group's Archives:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Behavioral-Finance/messages
(and then use "search")

* Your BF Bookmarks
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Behavioral-Finance/links

* Your behavioral Stockpricer
http://perso.wanadoo.fr/pgreenfinch/pricer.htm

* Not to forget the very practical and useful search tool
from MartinSewell
http://cgi.msewell.plus.com/cgi-bin/bfsearch.cgi

Wishing the best to all, and a month of summer relaxing
but also of fruitful, innovative and thought-provoking info
and debates.

Peter

Hey there.  As the new guy on the block, so to speak, I thought
I'd take a moment just to say hello and introduce myself.  I have
an MBA (from UCLA) and have several years of experience in the
market.  My work experience is primarily in the financial field.

Best regards to all.

Tom

--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "Tom"
<thomaseherbert@y...> wrote:
> Hey there.  As the new guy on the block, so to speak,

Welcome, Tom, this the finest block in town, btw ;-)

Peter

hi tom welcome in behavioral finance goup.
regards
flavio
>-- Messaggio Originale --
>To: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com
>From: "Tom" <thomaseherbert@...>
>Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 16:27:57 -0000
>Subject: [Behavioral-Finance] New member
>Reply-To: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com
>
>
><html><body>
>
>
><tt>
>Hey there.  As the new guy on the block, so to speak, I thought<BR>
>I'd take a moment just to say hello and introduce myself.  I have<BR>
>an MBA (from UCLA) and have several years of experience in the <BR>
>market.  My work experience is primarily in the financial field.<BR>
><BR>
>Best regards to all.<BR>
><BR>
>Tom<BR>
><BR>
><BR>
><BR>
></tt>
>
><br><br>
><tt>
>you may unsubscribe by sending an email to <BR>
><BR>
>Behavioral-Finance-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com<BR>
></tt>
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>
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Hello,

Allow me to introduce myself. My name is Joseph Wehbe and I'm a new
member as well. After getting a B.S. and an M.Eng in operations
research from Cornell University, I have worked in the fields of
finance and e-learning, and have designed some marketing research
software using traditional statistical techniques. An interest in the
social sciences has led me to my present job doing research for an EU-
funded program entitled "The Information Society as a Complex
System". I look forward to learning from this group, and hopefully
contributing to it (I'm new to BF).

Best regards to all,

Joseph Wehbe

Welcome, Joseph, in our not too complex little information society ;-
))

Btw, a thing that I find mind boggling is the explosive developement
of an online open encyclopedia like wikipedia. For me, it is the
ultimate symbol of the information society and of free cooperation
to exchange knowledge between people in the whole world. At our
modest level it is what this group also tries to doe.

Peter.

--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "josephweb2001"
<j.wehbe@w...> wrote:
> Hello,
>
> Allow me to introduce myself. My name is Joseph Wehbe and I'm a
new
> member as well. After getting a B.S. and an M.Eng in operations
> research from Cornell University, I have worked in the fields of
> finance and e-learning, and have designed some marketing research
> software using traditional statistical techniques. An interest in
the
> social sciences has led me to my present job doing research for an
EU-
> funded program entitled "The Information Society as a Complex
> System". I look forward to learning from this group, and hopefully
> contributing to it (I'm new to BF).
>
> Best regards to all,
>
> Joseph Wehbe

Thank you for your warm welcome, Peter! Btw I see you are also in
France. I'd like to start my participation with a question : what do
you and other members of the group think of technical analysis as a
psychological approach to the stock market?

--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "josephweb2001"
<j.wehbe@w...> wrote:
> Thank you for your warm welcome, Peter! Btw I see you are also in
> France. I'd like to start my participation with a question : what
do
> you and other members of the group think of technical analysis as
a
> psychological approach to the stock market?

Eh oui, Joseph, heard the silence? ;-)
It means that TA is a puzzle for BF.
TA is mostly considered as "representativeness", a cognitive
bias whis see patterns where it is not sure there are some
On the other hand, in some cases, BF concepts might support
some of them.
* Some trends detected by chartists might be explained by
the BF findings called the "underreaction - adjustment -
overreaction" chain of behavior.
* Some "support" or "resistance" phase might be linked to
mental "anchoring" on some past transactions or existential
hesitations at certain level of prices
Just my two cents in the debate,  but personaly I'm afraid
the past series of market data don't throw too much light
on what will happen next, except if the fundammentals and
the psychology behind those evolutions can be understood,
and even so...
Market efficiency would obviously lead to a random walk,
but some market inefficiencies can also happen randomly.
The eternal quest for predictability in a complex and
ever-changing world...
Peter.

Hi !
Glad to see all this new oxygen boosting our group's metabolism ;-))
Welcome Aviral, and thanks for your interest.
Peter

--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "s_aviral"
<s_aviral@y...> wrote:
> hi
>
> I am Aviral Sanghera, a new member of this group. I am from India
and
> currently doing my MBA from Xavier Institute of Management. I am a
> graduate in Commerce. Of late i have developed interest in
> behavioural finance. I am currently searching for some
> irrationalities found in human behaviour. Looking forward to learn
> from this group and contribute to this group.

Joseph -

Welcome to the group!

Working in a program called "The Information Society as a Complex System", you
might be interested
in a technique to model complex systems. It is called "interdisciplinary problem
solving" and has
been developed by Peter Gomez from University of St. Gallen HSG in Switzerland.

Follow this link for further information about the method:
http://www.vernetzt-denken.ch/englisch/index_asp.html. There is also a software
to support the
modelling process. For more information, contact Juerg Honegger directly (see
above link).

I send this as a group msg because others might also be interested.

Regards,
Dominik Schoenenberger
Switzerland

Signal tracking oscillators, and other rate-of-change
indicators are conceptually valid tools, and we have
found them to be very useful in forecasting for 38
years now.

Simple motion calculus can be reasonably effectively
applied to economic and capital market time series
cycle trends, since very few are purely stochastic
or random walks.

There are several real-time forecasting examples here:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/bronson/main.html
Note this is not advertising as is explained in the
section, "A note to visitors" at the bottom of the page.

Bob Bronson
Bronson Capital Markets Research




-----Original Message-----
From: pgreenfinch [mailto:pgreenfinch@...]
Sent: Saturday, July 10, 2004 4:39 AM
To: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [Behavioral-Finance] Re: Thank you Peter

--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "josephweb2001"
<j.wehbe@w...> wrote:
> Thank you for your warm welcome, Peter! Btw I see you are
also in
> France. I'd like to start my participation with a question
: what
do
> you and other members of the group think of technical
analysis as
a
> psychological approach to the stock market?

Eh oui, Joseph, heard the silence? ;-)
It means that TA is a puzzle for BF.
TA is mostly considered as "representativeness", a cognitive
bias whis see patterns where it is not sure there are some
On the other hand, in some cases, BF concepts might support
some of them.
* Some trends detected by chartists might be explained by
the BF findings called the "underreaction - adjustment -
overreaction" chain of behavior.
* Some "support" or "resistance" phase might be linked to
mental "anchoring" on some past transactions or existential
hesitations at certain level of prices Just my two cents in
the debate,  but personaly I'm afraid the past series of
market data don't throw too much light on what will happen
next, except if the fundammentals and the psychology behind
those evolutions can be understood, and even so...
Market efficiency would obviously lead to a random walk, but
some market inefficiencies can also happen randomly.
The eternal quest for predictability in a complex and
ever-changing world...
Peter.



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Yahoo! Groups Links

Tom,

Welcome and hope you enjoy it!

Antonia

	 -----Messaggio originale-----
	 Da: flaviocarpenzano@... [mailto:flaviocarpenzano@...]
	 Inviato: ven 09/07/2004 9.13
	 A: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com
	 Cc:
	 Oggetto: RE: [Behavioral-Finance] New member


	 hi tom welcome in behavioral finance goup.
	 regards
	 flavio
	 >-- Messaggio Originale --
	 >To: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com
	 >From: "Tom" <thomaseherbert@...>
	 >Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 16:27:57 -0000
	 >Subject: [Behavioral-Finance] New member
	 >Reply-To: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com
	 >
	 >
	 ><html><body>
	 >
	 >
	 ><tt>
	 >Hey there.  As the new guy on the block, so to speak, I thought<BR>
	 >I'd take a moment just to say hello and introduce myself.  I have<BR>
	 >an MBA (from UCLA) and have several years of experience in the <BR>
	 >market.  My work experience is primarily in the financial field.<BR>
	 ><BR>
	 >Best regards to all.<BR>
	 ><BR>
	 >Tom<BR>
	 ><BR>
	 ><BR>
	 ><BR>
	 ></tt>
	 >
	 ><br><br>
	 ><tt>
	 >you may unsubscribe by sending an email to <BR>
	 ><BR>
	 >Behavioral-Finance-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com<BR>
	 ></tt>
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<http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/> .

I'm interested in doing some regression modeling on the S&P 500 and
would like to find a source, preferably online and free, that has
the following data going back 50 years.

1. Yield information on U.S. Treasury bills (3 months, 6 months and 1
year) in maturity.

2. Yield information on the U.S. Treasury long bond.

3. Earnings for the S&P 500.

4. Closing price levels for the S&P 500.


Weekly data would be fine for the purpose of my study. Does anyone
know of a source where I could access the above data and, if so,
could you provide me with a link to it?

Thanks for any help you might be able to provide.

Best regards to all.

Tom

Tom

Find free daily times series of S&P 500 (GSPC) here (dating back to 1982)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^GSPC
Have a look at S&P's own website, too.

You will find free time series of T-Bills here
http://screen.yahoo.com/bonds.html
Have a look at US gov sites, too.

Another great site is
http://www.economagic.com/

However, you will hardly find free data going back 50 years. You have to pay for
this.
I have included some pay-services on my own webring
http://www.stud.unisg.ch/users/dschoenenberger/bf.htm ("How to get data")
You may gain free access to some of these databases through university networks
or libraries.

If you are serious about the 50 years, these guys will look it up for you
http://www.normanshistoricaldata.com

Dominik Schoenenberger

--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "josephweb2001"
<j.wehbe@w...> wrote:
> Thank you for your warm welcome, Peter! Btw I see you are also in
> France. I'd like to start my participation with a question : what
do
> you and other members of the group think of technical analysis as
a
> psychological approach to the stock market?

I think Adam Smith said it best in his book The Money Game,
technical analysis is 'what is everyone else (in the market) doing?'
Studying market action to try to read other investors makes sense.
I think Good TA is this and a subset or maybe a special case of
microeconomics.  Bad TA is numerology.

Jan

Hi Tom:

The best overall site for the gov't stats is the Federal Reserve itself:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/

You'll then have a number of links which could prove useful. The
difficulty here, as is the case with the free data at economagic, is
that it is not readily convertible into any usable format. The raw data
is all there but there'll be some work to convert it to .xls (or
whatever) format.

For $10, you can get an 8 week subscription at economagic which will
give you full access to the site incl all .xls files.

Hope this helps

Ray

The Economagic text data can be converted to .xls data
using the Fixed Width option in the "text to columns"
wizard under Data in the Excel Standard toolbar.  With
a little ingenuity their staggered columnar format can
be "interpreted" relatively easily.

Bob Bronson
Bronson Capital Markets Research




-----Original Message-----
From: Raymond McBoyd [mailto:rmcboyd@...]
Sent: Wednesday, July 14, 2004 9:45 AM
To: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [Behavioral-Finance] RE: Treasury securities yield
information and related data

Hi Tom:

The best overall site for the gov't stats is the Federal
Reserve itself:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/

You'll then have a number of links which could prove useful.
The difficulty here, as is the case with the free data at
economagic, is that it is not readily convertible into any
usable format. The raw data is all there but there'll be
some work to convert it to .xls (or
whatever) format.

For $10, you can get an 8 week subscription at economagic
which will give you full access to the site incl all .xls
files.

Hope this helps

Ray



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Ok, Jan, but don't you think Good TA is
rather an aspect of Behavioral Economics
since technicians eschew economics per se?

Bob Bronson
Bronson Capital Markets Research



-----Original Message-----
From: leif_ericssen [mailto:leif_ericssen@...]
Sent: Tuesday, July 13, 2004 11:57 PM
To: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [Behavioral-Finance] Re: Thank you Peter

--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "josephweb2001"
<j.wehbe@w...> wrote:
> Thank you for your warm welcome, Peter! Btw I see you are
also in
> France. I'd like to start my participation with a question
: what
do
> you and other members of the group think of technical
analysis as
a
> psychological approach to the stock market?

I think Adam Smith said it best in his book The Money Game,
technical analysis is 'what is everyone else (in the market)
doing?'
Studying market action to try to read other investors makes
sense.
I think Good TA is this and a subset or maybe a special case
of microeconomics.  Bad TA is numerology.

Jan

Hi Tom:

The best overall site for the gov't stats is the Federal Reserve itself:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/

You'll then have a number of links which could prove useful. The
difficulty here, as is the case with the free data at economagic, is
that it is not readily convertible into any usable format. The raw data
is all there but there'll be some work to convert it to .xls (or
whatever) format.

For $10, you can get an 8 week subscription at economagic which will
give you full access to the site incl all .xls files.

Hope this helps

Ray



you may unsubscribe by sending an email to

Behavioral-Finance-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com

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Wed, 14 Jul 2004 23:45:32 -0600, "Bob Bronson" <bob@...> wrote:

> The Economagic text data can be converted to .xls data
> using the Fixed Width option in the "text to columns"
> wizard under Data in the Excel Standard toolbar.  With
> a little ingenuity their staggered columnar format can
> be "interpreted" relatively easily.

That's the "Tip of the Week" for this Excel-challenged trader.

Thanks Bob

Ray

*nods* Yes, you're right, I think it would be an aspect of
Behavioural Economics/Finance.

W/O going into semantic arguments (I'm not that good at it) I think
that TA (taking a disciplined and empirical approach not rote and
superstition) is serious and worth attention and that too many
Finance academics dismiss it without thinking.  It seems very clear
to me that analysing the actions of patrticipants that are recorded
in the marketplace is sensible and that is better than going with an
unexamined assumption that all available information is correctly
reflected in the price.

This is harsh, but I think that view is chosen ignorance disguised
as scholarly 'right thinking'.

BTW, re technicians eschew economics per se, I didn't know that they
had that rep, but seems like another version of what I complain
about above.  Identifying themselves like that is limiting and
really pointless because it doesn't have any payoff except maybe as
a security blanket and to save the effort of thinking.

Jan
(who doesn't like the label 'behaviorist')

--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Bronson" <bob@b...>
wrote:
> Ok, Jan, but don't you think Good TA is
> rather an aspect of Behavioral Economics
> since technicians eschew economics per se?
>
> Bob Bronson
> Bronson Capital Markets Research
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: leif_ericssen [mailto:leif_ericssen@y...]
> Sent: Tuesday, July 13, 2004 11:57 PM
> To: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com
> Subject: [Behavioral-Finance] Re: Thank you Peter
>
> --- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "josephweb2001"
> <j.wehbe@w...> wrote:
> > Thank you for your warm welcome, Peter! Btw I see you are
> also in
> > France. I'd like to start my participation with a question
> : what
> do
> > you and other members of the group think of technical
> analysis as
> a
> > psychological approach to the stock market?
>
> I think Adam Smith said it best in his book The Money Game,
> technical analysis is 'what is everyone else (in the market)
> doing?'
> Studying market action to try to read other investors makes
> sense.
> I think Good TA is this and a subset or maybe a special case
> of microeconomics.  Bad TA is numerology.
>
> Jan

In addition to the behavioral aspects of TA - e.g.,
contrary opinion - there is strong theoretic groundwork
and empirical results for TA in what I posted five days
ago about signal tracking oscillators, and related rate-
of-change type indicators.

Simple motion calculus (e.g. velocity and acceleration
derivatives) can be reasonably effectively applied to
economic and capital market time series cycle trends,
since very few are purely stochastic or random walks.

There are several real-time forecasting examples here:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/bronson/main.html
(Note that this is not advertising as is explained in the
section, "A note to visitors" at the bottom of the page.)

Bob Bronson
Bronson Capital Markets Research



-----Original Message-----
From: leif_ericssen [mailto:leif_ericssen@...]
Sent: Thursday, July 15, 2004 11:50 AM
To: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [Behavioral-Finance] Re: Thank you Peter

*nods* Yes, you're right, I think it would be an aspect of
Behavioural Economics/Finance.

W/O going into semantic arguments (I'm not that good at it)
I think that TA (taking a disciplined and empirical approach
not rote and
superstition) is serious and worth attention and that too
many Finance academics dismiss it without thinking.  It
seems very clear to me that analysing the actions of
patrticipants that are recorded in the marketplace is
sensible and that is better than going with an unexamined
assumption that all available information is correctly
reflected in the price.

This is harsh, but I think that view is chosen ignorance
disguised as scholarly 'right thinking'.

BTW, re technicians eschew economics per se, I didn't know
that they had that rep, but seems like another version of
what I complain about above.  Identifying themselves like
that is limiting and really pointless because it doesn't
have any payoff except maybe as a security blanket and to
save the effort of thinking.

Jan
(who doesn't like the label 'behaviorist')

--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Bronson"
<bob@b...>
wrote:
> Ok, Jan, but don't you think Good TA is rather an aspect
of Behavioral
> Economics since technicians eschew economics per se?
>
> Bob Bronson
> Bronson Capital Markets Research
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: leif_ericssen [mailto:leif_ericssen@y...]
> Sent: Tuesday, July 13, 2004 11:57 PM
> To: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com
> Subject: [Behavioral-Finance] Re: Thank you Peter
>
> --- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "josephweb2001"

> <j.wehbe@w...> wrote:
> > Thank you for your warm welcome, Peter! Btw I see you
are
> also in
> > France. I'd like to start my participation with a
question
> : what
> do
> > you and other members of the group think of technical
> analysis as
> a
> > psychological approach to the stock market?
>
> I think Adam Smith said it best in his book The Money
Game, technical
> analysis is 'what is everyone else (in the market) doing?'
> Studying market action to try to read other investors
makes sense.
> I think Good TA is this and a subset or maybe a special
case of
> microeconomics.  Bad TA is numerology.
>
> Jan



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-----Ursprüngliche Nachricht-----

Von: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com

An: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com

Gesendet: Freitag, 16 Juli, 2004 14:11

Betreff: [Behavioral-Finance] Digest Number 1238

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There are 3 messages in this issue.

Topics in this digest:

      1. RE: Treasury securities yield information and related data
           From: "Raymond McBoyd" <rmcboyd@...>
      2. Re: Thank you Peter
           From: "leif_ericssen" <leif_ericssen@...>
      3. RE: Re: Thank you Peter
           From: "Bob Bronson" <bob@...>


________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________

Message: 1        
   Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 07:44:38 -0700
   From: "Raymond McBoyd" <rmcboyd@...>
Subject: RE: Treasury securities yield information and related data


        
Wed, 14 Jul 2004 23:45:32 -0600, "Bob Bronson" <bob@...> wrote:
 
> The Economagic text data can be converted to xls data
> using the Fixed Width option in the "text to columns"
> wizard under Data in the Excel Standard toolbar.  With
> a little ingenuity their staggered columnar format can
> be "interpreted" relatively easily.

That's the "Tip of the Week" for this Excel-challenged trader.

Thanks Bob

Ray


________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________

Message: 2        
   Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 17:49:37 -0000
   From: "leif_ericssen" <leif_ericssen@...>
Subject: Re: Thank you Peter

*nods* Yes, you're right, I think it would be an aspect of
Behavioural Economics/Finance. 

W/O going into semantic arguments (I'm not that good at it) I think
that TA (taking a disciplined and empirical approach not rote and
superstition) is serious and worth attention and that too many
Finance academics dismiss it without thinking.  It seems very clear
to me that analysing the actions of patrticipants that are recorded
in the marketplace is sensible and that is better than going with an
unexamined assumption that all available information is correctly
reflected in the price.

This is harsh, but I think that view is chosen ignorance disguised
as scholarly 'right thinking'. 

BTW, re technicians eschew economics per se, I didn't know that they
had that rep, but seems like another version of what I complain
about above.  Identifying themselves like that is limiting and
really pointless because it doesn't have any payoff except maybe as
a security blanket and to save the effort of thinking.

Jan 
(who doesn't like the label 'behaviorist')

--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Bronson" <bob@b...>
wrote:
> Ok, Jan, but don't you think Good TA is
> rather an aspect of Behavioral Economics
> since technicians eschew economics per se?
>
> Bob Bronson
> Bronson Capital Markets Research
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: leif_ericssen [mailto:leif_ericssen@y...]
> Sent: Tuesday, July 13, 2004 11:57 PM
> To: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com
> Subject: [Behavioral-Finance] Re: Thank you Peter
>
> --- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "josephweb2001"
> <j.wehbe@w...> wrote:
> > Thank you for your warm welcome, Peter! Btw I see you are
> also in
> > France. I'd like to start my participation with a question
> : what
> do
> > you and other members of the group think of technical
> analysis as
> a
> > psychological approach to the stock market?
>
> I think Adam Smith said it best in his book The Money Game,
> technical analysis is 'what is everyone else (in the market)
> doing?'
> Studying market action to try to read other investors makes
> sense. 
> I think Good TA is this and a subset or maybe a special case
> of microeconomics.  Bad TA is numerology. 
>
> Jan



________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________

Message: 3        
   Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 14:02:08 -0600
   From: "Bob Bronson" <bob@...>
Subject: RE: Re: Thank you Peter

In addition to the behavioral aspects of TA - e.g.,
contrary opinion - there is strong theoretic groundwork
and empirical results for TA in what I posted five days
ago about signal tracking oscillators, and related rate-
of-change type indicators.

Simple motion calculus (e.g. velocity and acceleration
derivatives) can be reasonably effectively applied to
economic and capital market time series cycle trends,
since very few are purely stochastic or random walks. 

There are several real-time forecasting examples here:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/bronson/main.html
(Note that this is not advertising as is explained in the
section, "A note to visitors" at the bottom of the page.)

Bob Bronson
Bronson Capital Markets Research



-----Original Message-----
From: leif_ericssen [mailto:leif_ericssen@...]
Sent: Thursday, July 15, 2004 11:50 AM
To: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [Behavioral-Finance] Re: Thank you Peter

*nods* Yes, you're right, I think it would be an aspect of
Behavioural Economics/Finance. 

W/O going into semantic arguments (I'm not that good at it)
I think that TA (taking a disciplined and empirical approach
not rote and
superstition) is serious and worth attention and that too
many Finance academics dismiss it without thinking.  It
seems very clear to me that analysing the actions of
patrticipants that are recorded in the marketplace is
sensible and that is better than going with an unexamined
assumption that all available information is correctly
reflected in the price.

This is harsh, but I think that view is chosen ignorance
disguised as scholarly 'right thinking'. 

BTW, re technicians eschew economics per se, I didn't know
that they had that rep, but seems like another version of
what I complain about above.  Identifying themselves like
that is limiting and really pointless because it doesn't
have any payoff except maybe as a security blanket and to
save the effort of thinking.

Jan
(who doesn't like the label 'behaviorist')

--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Bronson"
<bob@b...>
wrote:
> Ok, Jan, but don't you think Good TA is rather an aspect
of Behavioral
> Economics since technicians eschew economics per se?
>
> Bob Bronson
> Bronson Capital Markets Research
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: leif_ericssen [mailto:leif_ericssen@y...]
> Sent: Tuesday, July 13, 2004 11:57 PM
> To: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com
> Subject: [Behavioral-Finance] Re: Thank you Peter
>
> --- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "josephweb2001"

> <j.wehbe@w...> wrote:
> > Thank you for your warm welcome, Peter! Btw I see you
are
> also in
> > France. I'd like to start my participation with a
question
> : what
> do
> > you and other members of the group think of technical
> analysis as
> a
> > psychological approach to the stock market?
>
> I think Adam Smith said it best in his book The Money
Game, technical
> analysis is 'what is everyone else (in the market) doing?'
> Studying market action to try to read other investors
makes sense.
> I think Good TA is this and a subset or maybe a special
case of
> microeconomics.  Bad TA is numerology.
>
> Jan



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I'm here in Philadelphia, attending the 2004 joint meeting of the Society for
the Advancement of Behavioural Economics (SABE) and the International
Association for Research in Economic Psychology (IAREP).  I encourage everyone
to look into these groups: this year's conference is every bit as good as last
year's.  I'm especially looking forward to the keynote presentation from Vernon
Smith.  If anyone is interested in the details, I'll send another note when I
get the chance.


Jeremy Burman
Peterson Lab, Department of Psychology, University of Toronto