Somewhere recently, I think I heard that the average US investor now believes the US stock market will return 15% annually, down from something like 30%...
6585
A.C.B.
ballasac
Sep 20, 2004 9:39 pm
Sorry Allan, I have not seen such a study. I know, however, that men like John Bogle and Buffett have spoken of a stock market return of 8 to 10 percent....
6586
Allan Roth
allan_roth
Sep 20, 2004 11:17 pm
I have no clue in the near future - too volatile in the short run. My guess would be about a 4.5% REAL (after inflation) in the long run. Assuming a 20%...
6587
Alif Shirali
alifshirali
Sep 21, 2004 4:18 am
BTW, just to clarify (apologies for boring those who know this well enough): Keynes's beauty contest comment did not mean he thought that certain social ...
6588
deepfoobar
Sep 24, 2004 8:33 pm
Remember that sometimes herding is perfectly rational. As long as prices rise, and open interest expands, there isn't much to worry the oil (or other...
6589
Martin Sewell
martinsewell1
Sep 25, 2004 2:20 am
... The citing of peer-reviewed papers (as opposed to talking nonsense) is evidence of the quality of this mailing list. Regards Martin...
6590
Alif Shirali
alifshirali
Sep 25, 2004 6:28 am
I agree, the peer-reviewed nature of academic papers is very important to CREDIBILITY. Otherwise I would buy all the books on trading out there (as I did for a...
6591
Alif Shirali
alifshirali
Sep 25, 2004 7:31 am
On long term fundamentals of oil prices, $40-50/bbl is really not that high. 1. Inflation adjusted the price is about the same as in 1980, and will hurt the US...
6592
lazenguy
Sep 25, 2004 7:37 am
Agree with the comments on Commitment of Traders. Barchart.com Advanced Commities Service has the aggregate data as far as the S&P 500. Requires subscription,...
6593
Alif Shirali
alifshirali
Sep 25, 2004 7:49 am
BTW, my behavioral finance angle in the comments below involved the fact that most people are saying that oil prices are in a bubble right now, but some energy...
6594
deepfoobar
Sep 25, 2004 1:24 pm
Thought about this a bit. Re my last post what I was trying to suggest by pointing to the action of Commerical, Speculator and Small Traders (Committment of...
6595
giuseppe cornicello
g_cornicello
Sep 25, 2004 3:38 pm
I haven't red a lot about the growth of the oil prices but I have an opinion about it. If I can say that there is a increase on the world oil demand and on...
6596
deepfoobar
Sep 25, 2004 3:46 pm
Sorry, blathering here a bit. Another key piece of information you can use to track price sentiment in futures is the price behavior of the forward contracts....
6597
M. Edward Borasky
znmeb
Sep 25, 2004 3:50 pm
... Some of us, including myself, are quants. I don't currently quant in finance, though, but in computer performance modeling. At the same time, I am a strict...
6598
deepfoobar
Sep 25, 2004 4:48 pm
For once I can be brief. One of the things that causes a bubble in commodity futures (as opposed to stocks) is an atypical imbalance between the number of...
6599
Alif Shirali
alifshirali
Sep 25, 2004 5:28 pm
Bubble formation would be an interesting thread for this group, as it is of interest to theoreticians and investment professionals. Cliff Asness "Bubble Logic"...
6600
Alif Shirali
alifshirali
Sep 25, 2004 5:56 pm
... I'm glad you don't find theoretical academic beahavioral economics papers extreme, as some people might. I personally like to read anything in behavioral...
6601
M. Edward Borasky
znmeb
Sep 25, 2004 6:51 pm
... Well ... look up "heavy tails" in the statistical literature, then. :) There are some techniques you might find useful. My references are all at work; I...
6602
Martin Sewell
martinsewell1
Sep 25, 2004 9:34 pm
... Utter nonsense! Martin...
6603
Martin Sewell
martinsewell1
Sep 25, 2004 10:24 pm
... It's interesting in itself that in the interests of self-promotion, intelligent, competitive people are quite happy to submit pseudoscience to a public...
6604
Alif Shirali
alifshirali
Sep 26, 2004 8:03 am
1. On fat tails, I was fortunate enough to have met Mandelbrot when he was a Visiting Prof at Harvard in the mid 80s. He and Houthakker (my first finance prof)...
6605
Alif Shirali
alifshirali
Sep 26, 2004 8:07 am
Yes, that's an interesting question too -- what is Victor Niederhoffer REALLY up to? After tanking his hedge fund in 1997, prior to which he was happy to ...
6606
yamarkov
Sep 26, 2004 10:49 am
hello! Does anyone know about references to books or articles about subjective discount rates? thanks, Markovits Yair....
6607
deepfoobar
Sep 26, 2004 9:35 pm
All I know of the man comes from hearing a talk he gave to the Market Technicians Association a while back. Pretty much what he said was other than counting...
6608
leif_ericssen
Sep 27, 2004 2:29 am
... dramatically this ... boosted volumes 35% ... physical delivery. ... being in 90% cash ... now allow cheaper ... cost. For example on ... hedge. With a...
6609
leif_ericssen
Sep 27, 2004 2:53 am
I think that a lot of the increased volume in the oil market grew from the attractiveness of volatility to speculators and liquidity made it more attractive. ...
6610
leif_ericssen
Sep 27, 2004 4:07 am
I don't know if this is BF but I note Only that because trends are clearly not simple (else everyone would be rich) they can continue for longer than the...
6611
leif_ericssen
Sep 27, 2004 4:24 am
... sunspots. ... Hmmf! I bet that's just what you'd say about my Progressive Serial Persistance-Based Back Bet Baccarat (and Blackjack) System, Martin! Jan...
6612
M. Edward Borasky
znmeb
Sep 27, 2004 4:53 am
... I think you've misread Taleb. If "eventually" means "as t approaches infinity", maybe. What Taleb is saying is that traders confuse luck with skill and...
6613
leif_ericssen
Sep 27, 2004 5:46 am
... Hi Peter, are you thinking of BE applied to public choice theory? It looks fascinating! You might want to look at the literature on policy research and ...
