Hi, dear members and visitors! I'm glad to send you our group's 81st month newsletter. We had interesting discussions last month about the equity risk puzzle....
... [snip] ... I like your reworking of the the glossary entry, Peter, is there any way I can be of help? I agree that we have not squezzed all the juice from...
Dear All, The Asia-Pacific Association of Derivatives ( APAD ) will hold its 4 th Annual Conference on June 20-22, 2007 at the Management Development ...
Dear Group Members, A new journal is launced by Dokuz Eylul University (Turkey) and Gdansk University. Detailed information regarding the first issue and call...
... any ... leaving ... Thanks, Jan. Maybe you can sketch a tentative list of the various points to consider? Or to analyse if we keep the biological chemestry...
... (http://perso.orange.fr/pgreenfinch/bfglo/bfglo.riskattitude.htm) ... I can try! If nothing else, writing an outline will help me to get my thinking clear...
... (http://perso.orange.fr/pgreenfinch/bfglo/bfglo.riskpremium.htm) ... there ... reasonable. ... hoping ... influence ... for ... not ... OK, you are right...
... <pgreenfinch@...> wrote: [snip] ... OK, starting the basics with your reply! Yes, I agree 100% with you that both sentiment (bubbles and busts) and low...
Yes Jan, I think I see the circularity you detected : 1) the equity premium makes equities cheap, 2) as they are cheap, their return will be higher, 3) the...
Completed the circle: 1) the equity premium makes equities cheap, 2) as they are cheap, their return will be higher, 3) the ex-post return being higher, there...
Wow, hold the phone, Peter! The circular equity premium you describe looks like just another way of saying that 1. stocks are a good bargain when they are...
... An alternating feedback loop? - A high equity premium makes high returns possible but - high returns attract more and more investors who raise prices, ...
Yes, Finance-Academy might offer some light, as to know the premium "ex-ante" supposes to estimate first the so-called "fair value" on the basis of a riskless...
My cats may resemble that remark! ;) I think you put your finger on it with the tricky value calculation. Whether there is an equity premium or whether the...
Jan and Peter, After stepping off of your merry-go-round discussion about the equity risk premium, it is quite clear that when the ex post risk premium is...
Certainly, Michael, a low EP could be due either to a low aversion to risk or to a high expectation of growth. A subjective thing on both accounts. Which...
"Base-rate Respect: From Ecological Rationality to Dual Processes" by Aron K. Barbey and Steven A. Sloman Abstract: The phenomenon of base-rate neglect has...
Hi Michael, Peter.. Michael, you are right about the importance of growth expectations. I thought I had said that earlier, but looking back, I don't think I ...
Jan and Peter, On the dot.com and indeed on many emergent industries bio-tech etc.), which investors from time to time gets all too exited about, I believe...
I like thinking in terms of real options but I'm very careful when applying ROT to speculative 'concept' stocks (dot coms, biotechs, mining/oil exploration...
Hi, dear members and visitors! I'm glad to send you our group's 82nd month newsletter. 1) Monthly activity Our group has been rather quiet, as if expecting a...
[ source: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-03/uocp-nah030707.php ] Not as happy as you thought youd be? Study shows that disappointment has more...
Deleted as spam. Member put on moderation status. We have nothing against book authors, although we are not in the book selling business, but we have to be...
Thanks for this info, Martin, it shows an interesting peculiarity of the human mind related to expectations. Maybe as a side effect it might explain why some...
This asymmetric response to regret vs delight may be at the heart of a well-researched bias: the "Disposition Effect," the tendency we humans have to hold on...
Hello, My name is Joćo Valadas and I'm a Phd student of ISEG (Lisbon Technical University), http://www.iseg.utl.pt/. I'm focus on SRFM behavioral dimensions...
Every month, I submit an article from the BF glossary, for information, to start a debate on the topic and to get your observations. This month I chose...
Hello Peter, After a long absence (last post: July 2004) I'm back with my two- cents' worth. Kahneman et al. consider that status-quo bias is due to both loss ...
Hi, Joseph, thanks for the contribution To see the phenomenon as subjected to some collective critical threshold certainly brings an interesting element. As...
