Oops, I wanted to say
* Cognitive vs. emotional biases
* Individual vs. collective biases

--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "pgreenfinch"
<pgreenfinch@...> wrote:
>
> Good question, and some biases are close to one another.
> Also, some bias definitions might be ...biased ;-)
>
> Well, I think one way to make a first broad categorization
> is to differentiate:
>
> * Cognitive vs. emotional biases (a difference that is
> of course not always fully clearcut)
>
> * Individual vs. cognitive biases
>
> As I did in:
> http://pagesperso-orange.fr/pgreenfinch/bfdef.htm
>
> Peter
>
>  --- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "peter.wuethrich"
> <peter.wuethrich@> wrote:
> >
> > When wading through behavioral (finance) literature, one easily
finds
> > 100+ biases.
> >
> > Michael Pompian* notes: "Some authors refer to biases as
heuristics,
> > while other scholars classify biases along cognitive or emotional
> > lines."
> >
> > Does anyone have another idea on how to categorise biases
according
> to
> > some kind of meaningful framework to make things a bit more
simple?
> >
> > Thanks and regards,
> > Peter
> >
> > *Michael M. Pompian, Behavioral Wealth Management, Wiley, 2006
> >
>

An interesting question.

I think that a good way is to categorise biases into
belief biases, that lead to errors in judgments of
probability, and preference biases, that result in
errors in judgments of outcome (see, e.g., Barberis
and Thaler (2003)). I also think that emotional bias
is a subcategory of cognitive bias.


Regards,

Jing


Barberis, N. & Thaler, R. Constantinides, G.; Harris,
M. & Stulz, R. M. (ed.) A survey of behavioral finance
18 Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier
Science B. V., 2003, 1051-1121

--- pgreenfinch <pgreenfinch@...>写道:

> Good question, and some biases are close to one
> another.
> Also, some bias definitions might be ...biased ;-)
>
> Well, I think one way to make a first broad
> categorization
> is to differentiate:
>
> * Cognitive vs. emotional biases (a difference that
> is
> of course not always fully clearcut)
>
> * Individual vs. cognitive biases
>
> As I did in:
> http://pagesperso-orange.fr/pgreenfinch/bfdef.htm
>
> Peter
>
>  --- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com,
> "peter.wuethrich"
> <peter.wuethrich@...> wrote:
> >
> > When wading through behavioral (finance)
> literature, one easily finds
> > 100+ biases.
> >
> > Michael Pompian* notes: "Some authors refer to
> biases as heuristics,
> > while other scholars classify biases along
> cognitive or emotional
> > lines."
> >
> > Does anyone have another idea on how to categorise
> biases according
> to
> > some kind of meaningful framework to make things a
> bit more simple?
> >
> > Thanks and regards,
> > Peter
> >
> > *Michael M. Pompian, Behavioral Wealth Management,
> Wiley, 2006
> >
>
>
>


姚京


       ___________________________________________________________
进入雅虎游戏嘉年华，赢取液晶显示器！
http://cn.mail.yahoo.com/promo/carnival07/

I think that the early focus on heuristic bias and finance was
certainly useful but was also limiting.  If a heuristic is a rule of
thumb and/or perceptual tool (the 2 features are usually paired) then I
think it is a good idea to focus on the role of context and social
influence.  I think that would be be most useful in developing a
taxonomy.  I know that in real decisions I pay attention to mental
models and heuristics and how they develop and function along with
cultural background and institutions.

Jan

--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "peter.wuethrich"
<peter.wuethrich@...> wrote:
>
> When wading through behavioral (finance) literature, one easily finds
> 100+ biases.
>
> Michael Pompian* notes: "Some authors refer to biases as heuristics,
> while other scholars classify biases along cognitive or emotional
> lines."
>
> Does anyone have another idea on how to categorise biases according
to
> some kind of meaningful framework to make things a bit more simple?
>
> Thanks and regards,
> Peter
>
> *Michael M. Pompian, Behavioral Wealth Management, Wiley, 2006
>

peter.wuethrich wrote:
> When wading through behavioral (finance) literature, one easily finds
> 100+ biases.
>
> Michael Pompian* notes: "Some authors refer to biases as heuristics,
> while other scholars classify biases along cognitive or emotional
> lines."
>
> Does anyone have another idea on how to categorise biases according to
> some kind of meaningful framework to make things a bit more simple?

The following taxonomy is derived from page 17 of "Introduction -
Heristics and Biases: Then and Now" written by Thomas Gilovich and Dale
Griffin in the book "Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive
Judgment" edited by Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin and Daniel Kahneman, 2002.

General purpose heuristics:
Affect
Availability
Causality
Fluency
Similarity
Surprise

Special purpose heuristics:
Attribution Substitution
Outrage
Prototype
Recognition
Choosing by Liking
Choosing by Default

Old (now superseded) heuristics:
Representativeness (replaced by attribution-substitution (prototype
heuristic and similarity heuristic))
Anchoring and Adjustment (replaced by the affect heuristic)

Martin

Thank you Jan, Jing, Martin and Peter! Very helpful.

I just found another taxonomy in a german dissertation*. The author
separates them into the areas of the decision making process where they
might happen the most: Information preception, processing, evaluation
and taking action.

Regards,
Peter

*Lena Mazanek, Der Einfluss von Emotionen auf das individuelle
Entscheidungsverhalten privater Anleger, Dissertation Uni Duesseldorf,
2006

Dear all,

I am planning to do a research on Financial Spam (Stock Spam) with
respect to the availability bias. For the sampling purpose, I am in
desperate need of financial spam.

Do you have any recommendations for me, how I can receive this type of
spam (I am unfortunately only receiving Viagra and Increase your
youknowwhat-type of spam)? Also, please be invited to forward me any
stock spam that you receive to dongelong@....

Thank you in advance for your help.

Best,

Tobi

Thanks for the quick reply, I will try to be more concise:

so, I am trying to accumulate financial spam, that is spam e-mails
with bogus stock-recommendations, usually on penny-stocks (more
details here: http://www.qwoter.com/smf/stock-spam-news/stock-spam-101/0/)

For my analysis, I would like to attract as much of this type of spam
as possible. I therefore welcome everyone to forward me stock-spam he
receives to dongelong@.... I am also interested in
recommendations on how I can attract this type of spam, since many
people seem to receive it, but I don't.

I am looking forward to your answers,

Best,
Tobi



--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, zakarya el amri
<ziko_e@...> wrote:
>
> Dear Tobi,
>
> Sorry your problem its not clear.
>
> best
>
>
> ----- Message d'origine ----
> De : Tobi Baur <tobias.baur@...>
> 脌 : Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com
> Envoy茅 le : Mardi, 11 D茅cembre 2007, 11h55mn 36s
> Objet : [Behavioral-Finance] Attracting Financial Spam
>
> Dear all,
>
> I am planning to do a research on Financial Spam (Stock Spam) with
> respect to the availability bias. For the sampling purpose, I am in
> desperate need of financial spam.
>
> Do you have any recommendations for me, how I can receive this type of
> spam (I am unfortunately only receiving Viagra and Increase your
> youknowwhat- type of spam)? Also, please be invited to forward me any
> stock spam that you receive to dongelong@yahoo. de.
>
> Thank you in advance for your help.
>
> Best,
>
> Tobi
>
>
>
>
>
>
_____________________________________________________________________________

> Ne gardez plus qu'une seule adresse mail ! Copiez vos mails vers
Yahoo! Mail http://mail.yahoo.fr
>

You need to apply to services/download demo products on a trial basis (free)
or request information where you are giving them your email address.  Things
like Investor's Business Daily, Jim Cramer's Action Alerts, NinjaTrader
demo, etc.  It also helps if you have a web site with your email address on
it as mailto text.

Are you looking for product/service SPAM from established companies or pump
and dump OTCBB stock recommendations?


TimS


----- Original Message -----
From: "Tobi Baur" <tobias.baur@...>
To: <Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2007 5:53 AM
Subject: Re: Re : [Behavioral-Finance] Attracting Financial Spam


Thanks for the quick reply, I will try to be more concise:

so, I am trying to accumulate financial spam, that is spam e-mails
with bogus stock-recommendations, usually on penny-stocks (more
details here: http://www.qwoter.com/smf/stock-spam-news/stock-spam-101/0/)

For my analysis, I would like to attract as much of this type of spam
as possible. I therefore welcome everyone to forward me stock-spam he
receives to dongelong@.... I am also interested in
recommendations on how I can attract this type of spam, since many
people seem to receive it, but I don't.

I am looking forward to your answers,

Best,
Tobi



--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, zakarya el amri
<ziko_e@...> wrote:
>
> Dear Tobi,
>
> Sorry your problem its not clear.
>
> best
>
>
> ----- Message d'origine ----
> De : Tobi Baur <tobias.baur@...>
> �? : Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com
> Envoy茅 le : Mardi, 11 D茅cembre 2007, 11h55mn 36s
> Objet : [Behavioral-Finance] Attracting Financial Spam
>
> Dear all,
>
> I am planning to do a research on Financial Spam (Stock Spam) with
> respect to the availability bias. For the sampling purpose, I am in
> desperate need of financial spam.
>
> Do you have any recommendations for me, how I can receive this type of
> spam (I am unfortunately only receiving Viagra and Increase your
> youknowwhat- type of spam)? Also, please be invited to forward me any
> stock spam that you receive to dongelong@yahoo. de.
>
> Thank you in advance for your help.
>
> Best,
>
> Tobi
>
>
>
>
>
>
_____________________________________________________________________________

> Ne gardez plus qu'une seule adresse mail ! Copiez vos mails vers
Yahoo! Mail http://mail.yahoo.fr
>




you may unsubscribe by sending an email to

Behavioral-Finance-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com

Yahoo! Groups Links

Seems like an interesting research topic, Tobi

I think that to participate in stock and forex
newgroups might attract spammers to your mailbox.
Try also the "investing" section of yahoo
questions / answers

On the other hand, I find that financial-related
spams getscarcer those days.
Maybe there is a correlation between the volume of
financial spam and the stock index level or the
euro / dollar quotation (seems that this last
playground was the craze a few months or weeks ago).

Not easy for spammers to catch fishes in a deserted
river ;-). So maybe they are looking for other rivers.
That would be a first finding by the way to feed
your research.

Best wishes for your work.

Peter

--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "Tobi Baur"
<tobias.baur@...> wrote:
>
> Dear all,
>
> I am planning to do a research on Financial Spam (Stock Spam) with
> respect to the availability bias. For the sampling purpose, I am in
> desperate need of financial spam.
>
> Do you have any recommendations for me, how I can receive this type
of
> spam (I am unfortunately only receiving Viagra and Increase your
> youknowwhat-type of spam)? Also, please be invited to forward me
any
> stock spam that you receive to dongelong@...
>
> Thank you in advance for your help.
>
> Best,
>
> Tobi
>

pgreenfinch a 閏rit :

> On the other hand, I find that financial-related
> spams getscarcer those days.

Same observation for me.
It seems the last stock spam I got and kept is from 19/11/2007.

Good.
I think that (over-)optimism is a bias in information
preception and overconfidence is a bias in information
evaluation.

Regards,
Jing

--- "peter.wuethrich" <peter.wuethrich@...>写道:

> Thank you Jan, Jing, Martin and Peter! Very helpful.
>
> I just found another taxonomy in a german
> dissertation*. The author
> separates them into the areas of the decision making
> process where they
> might happen the most: Information preception,
> processing, evaluation
> and taking action.
>
> Regards,
> Peter
>
> *Lena Mazanek, Der Einfluss von Emotionen auf das
> individuelle
> Entscheidungsverhalten privater Anleger,
> Dissertation Uni Duesseldorf,
> 2006
>
>



       ___________________________________________________________
天生购物狂，狂抢购物券，你还等什么！
http://cn.mail.yahoo.com/promo/taobao20/index.php

Video with a waggish take on the overheated tech sector, sung to the
tune of Billy Joel's 'We Didn't Start the Fire'.

http://valleywag.com/tech/online-video/here-comes-another-takedown-332666.php

Martin

Thank you to everyone who responded so far, who forwarded me spam and
who gave me comments.

It is indeed also my impression that stock spam gets more scarce,
though it is still occuring.

I am currently signing up to newsletters, downloading trial versions
and try to drop my e-mail adress wherever spam-bots might pick them up.

Some of you suggested to make the research open and online. I think
this is a great idea, I must admit however that I am quite a novice in
the field of webdesign, neither do I owe any webspace. I will try to
see in how far this will be an option, but I don't expect to be able
to build something before mid- to end-January.

Anyways, I am still open to your suggestions, thankful for every spam
that you forward and for help on attracting spam.


--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, mel <mel@...> wrote:
>
> pgreenfinch a 閏rit :
>
> > On the other hand, I find that financial-related
> > spams getscarcer those days.
>
> Same observation for me.
> It seems the last stock spam I got and kept is from 19/11/2007.
>

[ source: http://www.physorg.com/news116599769.html ]

Men are more optimistic than women about the economic outlook, Massey
finance researchers say. Using consumer confidence data from 18
countries, they have identified a difference in outlook between sexes.

Men were found to have more positive expectations for economic growth,
interest rates, inflation and stock market performance and the findings
hold true even when the personal circumstances of the sample --
including wealth and employment -- are taken into account.

Professor Ben Jacobsen, head of the Commerce Department in the College
of Business, says differences found between genders in risk aversion and
optimism may explain why women on average hold less risky investment
portfolios than men.

Professor Jacobsen conducted the study with Dr John Lee from Massey and
Dr Wessel Marquering from Erasmus University, Rotterdam. He says the
researchers were surprised to find that they are apparently the first to
study the difference between men and women in their levels of optimism
about the future economic and financial outlook -- given the amount of
research devoted to other aspects of differences between the sexes.

In data from 17 of the 18 countries, women were less optimistic. Germany
was the only exception. For instance, in the United States they found
that since 1978 there had been only one month (March 2000) when consumer
confidence of women was higher. They report that this gender difference
had persisted over time in both the general economic outlook and in the
personal outlook.

They argue in their paper, called "Are men more Optimistic?", that these
differences could impact on the investment portfolios women build,
leaving them worse off in retirement.

"Our finding may explain why women invest on average less in risky
portfolios than men (women invest less in the stock market as opposed to
more safe assets). Two investors may have the same risk aversion, but if
one is more pessimistic about the future performance of the market or
perceives the future market risks to be higher, then the asset
allocation of the two investors may differ."

They point out that the observed differences in portfolio allocations
between men and women do not have to be large to have a big impact on
their future financial prospects.

"A 1 per cent difference in expected return might already explain
observed difference in portfolio holdings and therefore may have a large
effect at retirement."

In order to study the differences in confidence, they analysed used
monthly consumer confidence data from Australia, Austria, Belgium, Czech
Republic, Denmark, Germany, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland,
Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United
States. The large sample size was to ensure results were not country
specific or culture specific.

For the full research paper 'Are Men more optimistic?' see:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1030478

Source: Massey University

----- Original Message -----

From: Elisa Ghione

To: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com

Sent: Sunday, December 16, 2007 8:38 PM

Subject: Re: [Behavioral-Finance] FINANCIAL DATA

Hello!!!

 

I suggest you:

http://ideas.repec.org

http://logec.repec.org/

http://global.factiva.com/

http://www.sourceoecd.org/

http://devdata.worldbank.org/dataonline/

 

It's possible that some databases requires to login.

I usually  view them by the university access.

 

Until,

    Elysa

Hello to all group members,

Could you help me please about some questions?

 

I need to find these questions answers:

1) When we apply Johansen Cointegration test, If our two series have not got stationary in same wave (so they are not cointegrated) can we apply Granger Causality Test? In my study, one series has stationary  I(0) while another has I(1). So, can I apply Granger Causality test?

2) Can you recommend me any article about these subject which I can find my questions answers?

 

Thanks for your helping

Ekrem

---

Never miss a thing. Make Yahoo your homepage.

Hello, just joined. I have no background in economics but an
interest. At the moment I am interested in the currency market in
China. I know that if the yuan appreciates this will be bad for
chinese labour and exports, and also I think inward investment from
abroad.The chinese say thay plan in the long term to float the
currency, but I believe there is more complexity to the issue than
simply jobs and trade stopping them doing so at the moment -
something about the weak credit and finance system over there which
I don't quite understand - can you help? Also, what are the risks
for china if it continues to fix the price of they yuan? I heard it
will be vulnerable to external factors, but again don't quite
understand this. Links to blogs or news reports would be very handy,
if you could.

My interest has been sparked by reading an article in The Economist
magazine, which mentioned the exchange rate policy, but not the
details. I have found so much online, but come to a standstill.

I am interested because the West is pressuring china to liberalise,
but in whose interest is this; ours or everyones? I also wonder if
(with the size and growth of the mandarin economy), IF it is built
on sand, then what is thde likelihood of it's collapse due to the
weak finance and fixed yuan price and from there a
subsequent negative impact on the global economy in the short to
middle term? I would guess at an inflationary
pressure, as cheap goods would be less available. I think also that
a floated yuan, if it appreciates by 40% (the amount it is said to
be
undervalued), might cause inflation in markets dependent on chinese
exports because goods prices (resulting from production prices)
would rise, and with
there being no alternative to china for the supply of goods, the
consumer price index would increase by so many percent in quite a
few areas of the market. Is that correct?

Luke.

Hi, Luke!

As you say, things about currencies are quite complex
and their economic incidences also, hard to say what
is the "fair" exchange rate for a currency.

Here, we deal mostly with the psychological aspects
of markets. But as the yuan does not have a real
floating rate, psychology does not play a big part
in its exchange rate at the moment, except maybe
the chinese gvt psychology :-).

Between you and me, if the yuan exchange rate was
floating, I'm not too sure it would inspire a sudden
trust among financial players that would buy it
massively and make its rate go upwards quickly.

This reasoning would stand, in my opinion, even if
the chinese central bank sell its dollars (against
other currencies) instead of going on recycling them
in US bonds and other dollar assets. This could make
the dollar tumble against all currencies as a
"contagion effect" (here we are in a behavioral
finance topic), therefore not just against the yuan.

My two cents (or two yuans)...

Peter

--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "lukeschofield"
<lukeschofield@...> wrote:
>
> Hello, just joined. I have no background in economics but an
> interest. At the moment I am interested in the currency market in
> China. I know that if the yuan appreciates this will be bad for
> chinese labour and exports, and also I think inward investment from
> abroad.The chinese say thay plan in the long term to float the
> currency, but I believe there is more complexity to the issue than
> simply jobs and trade stopping them doing so at the moment -
> something about the weak credit and finance system over there which
> I don't quite understand - can you help? Also, what are the risks
> for china if it continues to fix the price of they yuan? I heard it
> will be vulnerable to external factors, but again don't quite
> understand this. Links to blogs or news reports would be very
handy,
> if you could.
>
> My interest has been sparked by reading an article in The Economist
> magazine, which mentioned the exchange rate policy, but not the
> details. I have found so much online, but come to a standstill.
>
> I am interested because the West is pressuring china to liberalise,
> but in whose interest is this; ours or everyones? I also wonder if
> (with the size and growth of the mandarin economy), IF it is built
> on sand, then what is thde likelihood of it's collapse due to the
> weak finance and fixed yuan price and from there a
> subsequent negative impact on the global economy in the short to
> middle term? I would guess at an inflationary
> pressure, as cheap goods would be less available. I think also that
> a floated yuan, if it appreciates by 40% (the amount it is said to
> be
> undervalued), might cause inflation in markets dependent on chinese
> exports because goods prices (resulting from production prices)
> would rise, and with
> there being no alternative to china for the supply of goods, the
> consumer price index would increase by so many percent in quite a
> few areas of the market. Is that correct?
>
> Luke.
>

----- Original Message -----

From: Shalu Kalra

To: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com

Sent: 17 December, 2007 11:06 AM

Subject: Re: [Behavioral-Finance] FINANCIAL DATA

to add to it you can also check

http://www.jstor.org/search/

http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/

 

 

and the best is scholar.google.com

 

On 12/17/07, Elisa Ghione <elisaghione@alice.it> wrote:

Ops....

Http://logec.repec.org it's a mistake...

 

Sorry,

    Elysa

----- Original Message -----

From: Elisa Ghione

To: Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com

Sent: Sunday, December 16, 2007 8:38 PM

Subject: Re: [Behavioral-Finance] FINANCIAL DATA

 

Hello!!!

 

I suggest you:

http://ideas.repec.org

http://logec.repec.org/

http://global.factiva.com/

http://www.sourceoecd.org/

http://devdata.worldbank.org/dataonline/

 

It's possible that some databases requires to login.

I usually  view them by the university access.

 

Until,

    Elysa

Peter, thanks for the welcome and comments.

Behavioural finance? I'll look into it, but as of yet have little of
a clue. I recall reading that game theory for example has links to
economics, and was fairly interested. One possible (different) area
of study I remember from a psychology text is that of "subliminal
advertising". When it was used at an US cinema to advertise a soft
drink and popcorn, sales of the products doubled or something like
that. However, the mode of advertisement was subsequently banned, I
recall... (and is banned in Britain, Australia and the USA where
broadcast licences will be revoked). I wonder if in the new "free"
china, where things are often done slightly differently, if there
subliminal messaging is allowed as part of the seller's marketing
stratergy? And if so, does it bear fruit?

Ah, doing a little work on google scholar and wikipedia, I have seen
that there is little scientific evidence to suggest that subliminal
messageing affects behaviour, excetping perhaps if done
unconsciously - and/or - when a person is already searching from a
range of goods with a pre-established/independent drive to consume.

Are subliminal ads and game theory (or rational choice theory)
legitimate areas of study for behavioural finance? in whatever case,
I look forward to reading some of the posts in this group, and to
get to grips with the fundamentals of the discipline.

Luke.


--- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "pgreenfinch"
<pgreenfinch@...> wrote:
>
> Hi, Luke!
>
> As you say, things about currencies are quite complex
> and their economic incidences also, hard to say what
> is the "fair" exchange rate for a currency.
>
> Here, we deal mostly with the psychological aspects
> of markets. But as the yuan does not have a real
> floating rate, psychology does not play a big part
> in its exchange rate at the moment, except maybe
> the chinese gvt psychology :-).
>
> Between you and me, if the yuan exchange rate was
> floating, I'm not too sure it would inspire a sudden
> trust among financial players that would buy it
> massively and make its rate go upwards quickly.
>
> This reasoning would stand, in my opinion, even if
> the chinese central bank sell its dollars (against
> other currencies) instead of going on recycling them
> in US bonds and other dollar assets. This could make
> the dollar tumble against all currencies as a
> "contagion effect" (here we are in a behavioral
> finance topic), therefore not just against the yuan.
>
> My two cents (or two yuans)...
>
> Peter
>
> --- In Behavioral-Finance@yahoogroups.com, "lukeschofield"
> <lukeschofield@> wrote:
> >
> > Hello, just joined. I have no background in economics but an
> > interest. At the moment I am interested in the currency market
in
> > China. I know that if the yuan appreciates this will be bad for
> > chinese labour and exports, and also I think inward investment
from
> > abroad.The chinese say thay plan in the long term to float the
> > currency, but I believe there is more complexity to the issue
than
> > simply jobs and trade stopping them doing so at the moment -
> > something about the weak credit and finance system over there
which
> > I don't quite understand - can you help? Also, what are the
risks
> > for china if it continues to fix the price of they yuan? I heard
it
> > will be vulnerable to external factors, but again don't quite
> > understand this. Links to blogs or news reports would be very
> handy,
> > if you could.
> >
> > My interest has been sparked by reading an article in The
Economist
> > magazine, which mentioned the exchange rate policy, but not the
> > details. I have found so much online, but come to a standstill.
> >
> > I am interested because the West is pressuring china to
liberalise,
> > but in whose interest is this; ours or everyones? I also wonder
if
> > (with the size and growth of the mandarin economy), IF it is
built
> > on sand, then what is thde likelihood of it's collapse due to
the
> > weak finance and fixed yuan price and from there a
> > subsequent negative impact on the global economy in the short to
> > middle term? I would guess at an inflationary
> > pressure, as cheap goods would be less available. I think also
that
> > a floated yuan, if it appreciates by 40% (the amount it is said
to
> > be
> > undervalued), might cause inflation in markets dependent on
chinese
> > exports because goods prices (resulting from production prices)
> > would rise, and with
> > there being no alternative to china for the supply of goods, the
> > consumer price index would increase by so many percent in quite
a
> > few areas of the market. Is that correct?
> >
> > Luke.
> >
>