OKAY: This is where I was going with my recent question and comparison. I can't speak for other industries, but I believe that most people in the construction...
Hi Peter I am going to offer you an approach to the problem of costing and budgeting that is based on where you are starting from and which may well differ...
Jim Bowles
jim_bowles@...
Feb 2, 2004 2:21 pm
1359
Jim Wrote: " Let's eliminate the problem of trying to put a cost to the buffers once we have them in our plan." OKAY: Jim, can we do that? I have always felt...
Hi Peter On many occasions I have heard Dr Goldratt say that if a problem is complex then you need a simple solution. In my view I offered you a simplest...
Jim Bowles
jim_bowles@...
Feb 2, 2004 8:26 pm
1361
Hi Peter After I sent my reply I began to ask myself what is Peter's real dilemma? Then I looked again at this statement: "I still have a two-point data system...
Jim Bowles
jim_bowles@...
Feb 2, 2004 8:42 pm
1362
Jim, If my method did well, or even adequate in "delivering on time, in spec and within budget", there would be no need to look at anything new or different....
Jim, I own my own business. I have no excuses to make. If I don't sell a job, it's my fault. If I don't finish on time, it's my fault. If the job is managed...
Hi Peter Yes, now I can see your true dilemma. Letting go of all the day to day control that you are employing now will be difficult to let go of. And yes it...
Jim Bowles
jim_bowles@...
Feb 2, 2004 10:32 pm
1365
Jim Wrote: "If you feel you can make that degree of change in yourself then you'll be ready to try, if not you'll keep asking more and more questions. It's a...
Hi Peter You said: "Didn't Goldratt write something to the effect of: "The strongest catalyst FOR change, is the resistance to change." That's quite a duality....
Jim Bowles
jim_bowles@...
Feb 2, 2004 11:47 pm
1367
Hi, Bill Nothing wrong with what you quote. (Alas, my 96 version has gone missing.) The problem is what to do about it. The subsequent risk section confounds...
Hi, Jim I find the "layers of resistance" hypothesis interesting and fun, but, after numerous tries at it, not very useful. Maybe I just don't know how to use...
... Provocative question: Why do they need to reconcile? [Later...after reading Jim's response, I see he addresses that question nicely.] That said, I like...
... Steven Holt responded... ... The use of the 2-point range estimates is, as Steve points out, and as I mentioned in my recent "estimates as conversations"...
Gentlemen: My current method of estimating is to use average performance (50%), total all labor, materials and subs, and then add 10% contingency. This is not...
Peter: The way I do a cost buffer is to resource it with the same mix as exists in the tasks that contribute to the buffer. The general concept is the same as...
... Be careful -- you're mixing your percentages. A "50% estimate" refers to an estimate that will be met 50% of the time. You will be on or under budget 50%...
... Larry -- I can't (won't) comment on the 2000 version of Project Risk Management. It's structure and content is not compatible with the rest of the ...
Bill, Let me clarify this by using the example I posted in the Files section called Historical Database. In that file I have actual times and costs posted for...
... common ... working ... common ... Does this go back to Larry's Statement "Identify in your project assumptions whether you are assuming them to happen or...
Hi Peter I've tried to stay away from the discussion as I think there is a danger in you getting too much advice and adding to the confusion that could occur. ...
Jim Bowles
jim_bowles@...
Feb 3, 2004 7:57 pm
1380
Bill, Larry and I had some correspondence on the Beta distribution not too long ago and found it somewhat flaky. I prefer the Triangular distribution by...
On the contrary Jim, I think we're in agreement. My slant in my "How Much Detail Does The Estimate Have To Have" postings ran similar to your statements. ...
Hi Peter Danger ahead!! I'm new to this stuff. Besides the obvious shape, what is the Triangle distribution saying that is different than the Normal...
Jim Bowles
jim_bowles@...
Feb 3, 2004 9:30 pm
1383
... Beta and triangular distributions are both finite and non-symmetrical. A normal distribution is *not* finite and it is symmetrical. Duncan...
I found the following definitions: The normal distribution represents variables whose values are most likely to be in the middle of the range, and with values...
... A uniform distribution *is* another possibility. One of the more popular mainframe software packages, PROJECT2, had 69 predefined distributions available...
Okay Bill, no need to go into all 60+ [grin]!!! I'll try to muddle thru with 7-8 choices. But seriously, with all the uncertainty floating around in a project,...
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