Most of you would agree that the past six Stock Market Years have been investment "head scratchers". Today's CNN pronouncement was that we would eke out a modest gain in 2004, thus producing: "Two consecutive positive years after three tremendous losers! The past two years being the best since the 1999 through 2000 twosome." Most Wall Streeters focus on the short term and Mutual Fund Salespeople will certainly be excited about how well their Fund Groups have done. It's your responsibility to put things in the proper perspective!

 

First of all, try to keep in mind that the typical Mutual Fund, Index Fund, Market Average/Index is not even close to where it was when it peaked out early in 2000. In fact, the DJIA is still more than 1000 points (or 10%) below where it was nearly five years ago...and that's the best performer of the big three. The worst, NASDAQ, would have to double to get back to the glory days of early 2000! So don't let the Wall Street celebration catch you with your portfolios up for a change. These "professionals" have done a pretty lousy job with your money lately.

 

Provided below are some interesting statistics that most of you rarely think about. They tell an interesting story. I'll give a free copy of my book to anyone who can correctly match these NYSE statistics with the appropriate years, from 1999 through 2004.  You’ll win if you can identify the best and worst years, even!

 

Group 1: The total of Daily "Down Ticks" exceeds Daily "Up Ticks" by a record 40,300.

              There were 39% more Days of negative breadth than positive

              Stocks hitting new 52 Week Lows more than doubled those striking new highs 

 

Group 2: The total of Daily "Down Ticks" exceeds Daily "Up Ticks" by a mere 8,100.

              There were just 10% more Days of negative breadth than positive

              Stocks hitting new 52 Lows exceeded those reaching new highs by only 900

 

Group 3: The total of Daily "Up Ticks" exceeds Daily "Down Ticks" by 22,300           

              There were 33% more positive breadth Days than negative

              Stocks hitting new 52 Week Highs more than doubled those striking new Lows

 

 

Group 4: The total of "Up Ticks" exceeds "Down Ticks" by a mere 2,800

              There were only 10 more positive breadth Days than negative

              Stocks hitting new Highs exceeded those hitting for the 2nd straight year 

 

Group 5: Total Daily "Up Ticks" exceed Daily "Down Ticks" by a record 52,600!           

              There were 54% more positive breadth Days than negative

              52 Week Highs exceeded 52 Week Lows by a phenomenal 737%

 

Group 6: Total Daily "Up Ticks" exceed Daily "Down Ticks" by an impressive 45,600           

              There were 49% more positive breadth Days than negative

              52 Week Highs were four time the total of new Lows

 

So have you got it figured out? Are you surprised that there were more positive years than negative...but not for you? Have you isolated the best and the worst years?