<> Don't Confuse Me With the Facts! <>
I've just returned to the "Investment World" after five years in deep space, and I'm trying to figure out what's been going on. Hmmmm! Breadth statistics show a 138,000 positive "tick" differential, with 75% of the months clearly positive! NYSE issues reaching new twelve-month highs have nearly tripled those hitting new lows. There have been more winners than losers on the NYSE for five consecutive years. Interest rates are about a third of what they were when I left! Must be the mother of all extended stock market rallies!
What, you can’t be serious! The DJIA is barely even, the S & P Average is down 20% and, can this be true, the NASDAQ has crashed 50%! The media is talking about a "secular bear market" (whatever that means) and several of my friends who owned mutual funds have had to take second jobs. What’s goin’ on?
This is a picture that will never change so long as the speculation purveying Financial Institutions control the investment menu and the financial media. We need new names and old approaches. We need to rediscover what investing was once all about. We need to understand the Market indices better or create better indices. Investors will never survive on fast food alone (products). They need nutrition!
So, are we all on the same page? The market for high quality securities was weak when the dot coms and the new economy were propelling the market averages ever higher. Today, quality orientated, diversified and properly allocated portfolios of individual securities are at or near their highest levels in history. Yes, this very day! But most people are nowhere near their highest ever market values and most Mutual Funds are light years behind where they should be at this momentous juncture. If you lost money over the past five years, you’ve been terribly misled. But, why?
Because the very same professionals, the same gurus, and the same media stars are still in investor faces, with the same messages, the same averages, the same speculative panaceas. How many of you know a financial professional who is willing to say no to a product sale and yes to an individual security portfolio? How many of you would know a value stock if you tripped over it? A fixed income CEF? Once again, history has provided a clear message to a generation of nest egg abusers. Stick with quality, diversify properly within both areas of your asset allocation (that’s right, just two), and take reasonable profits as frequently as you possibly can.
Don’t pretend that some high priced Mutual Fund manager cares about you and your future. Wake up…screaming! “My portfolio should be above where it was five years ago, it should have grown a bunch since then!” Then fire someone and look around for someone who knows nothing about products. You (and the rare professional that has the courage to try something old) are the only ones that can fix the problem. You don’t need fund managers or newsletter writers; you don’t need CNBC or discount brokers; you don’t need a “quiet stock market” or a guru with the right stuff. All you really need is a plan that stresses value, and an implementation strategy that works. A lot of people have gotten started here, http://www.valuestockbuylistprogram.com/, and thousands have read the better books listed here: http://www.investoreducator.com/.
Don’t look for an insider’s tip list or sure thing research baloney. There are no guarantees anywhere. What there is that you can count on are reasonable expectations and a higher batting average than riskier propositions can provide. Go retro with quality; go safer with proper diversification; and, by all means, get wealthier with reasonable profit targets.
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"The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read"