Hi, I have done some search using screening software and found that for June expiration (3 weeks from now) the best probability of being between the low and...
2634
Phil
optiontradin...
Jun 6, 2005 7:56 pm
I will take a 90% chance for a 3% monthly return over a coin flip chance for huge profit or huge losses. It is risk management that makes you a good trader,...
2635
FX_FADE
Jun 6, 2005 8:03 pm
Trading long calls/puts is going to be difficult for direction trading unless they are significantly in the money. Spread positions will give you a much...
2636
Mihai G
mihais
Jun 7, 2005 12:21 am
Is there a formula / criteria to decide what's better or it is just a subjective evaluation? I mean if you have to chose between two cases: (probability p1,...
2637
Charles H Martin
charlesmartin14
Jun 7, 2005 4:34 am
I think what you want is the expected gain, E[g], which is E[g1] = p1*g1 E[g2] = p2*g2 ... From: Mihai G To: OptionClub@yahoogroups.com Sent: Monday, June 06,...
2638
Mihai G
mihais
Jun 7, 2005 6:29 am
Thanks Charles. I also found Kent's post on the "IRON Condor trade information" thread. ... From a stats point of view, another way to explain it is by using...
2639
Charles H Martin
charlesmartin14
Jun 7, 2005 6:38 am
Thanks for pointing this out... ... From: Mihai G To: OptionClub@yahoogroups.com Sent: Monday, June 06, 2005 11:29 PM Subject: Re: [TheOptionClub.com] Re:...
2640
D. Paris
parisd2002
Jun 7, 2005 12:27 pm
I also searched yesterday for risk free collars and was amazed to find that at 12 days from June expiration there are risk free 2% gain possible with 7 to 10%...
2641
Phil
optiontradin...
Jun 7, 2005 2:38 pm
For me it is an intuitive approach. I do not want to take a 50-50 shot at a home run when I can go for 2 - 3 % with a high probability and a lot of room for...
2642
FX_FADE
Jun 7, 2005 4:53 pm
Actually, you need to look at the entire context by using Expected Value: E[V] = (Prob of Gain * Gain) - (Prob of Loss * Loss) I'd be willing to be that less...
2643
Phil
optiontradin...
Jun 7, 2005 6:03 pm
The reason I do not like the expected value probability formulas because it assumes that you take the full loss in a losing position. Given the typoes of OTM...
2644
strategize_options
strategize_o...
Jun 7, 2005 6:04 pm
Hello Kent, I'm interested in getting a copy. Arthur ... __________________________________ Discover Yahoo! Have fun online with music videos, cool games, IM...
2645
Toni R. Davidson
toni_davidso...
Jun 7, 2005 7:47 pm
Kent: Please do let Chris upload it.. sounds very interesting. Thanks, Toni ... From: strategize_options To: OptionClub@yahoogroups.com Sent: Tuesday, June 07,...
2646
FX_FADE
Jun 7, 2005 8:26 pm
Phil, Many thanks for your comments. I agree 100%! When I was a currency trader for a bank, I was shocked by the large number of traders that paid little, if...
2647
FX_FADE
Jun 7, 2005 8:29 pm
The hammer in most of the major indices today appears to be accompanied by above average volume so we may finally get a pullback. It will be a shallow one I'm...
2648
Christopher Smith
theoptionclub
Jun 7, 2005 10:05 pm
A few words about our iron condor trade... WATCH FOR RELEASE OF THE MP3 FILES! I have made progress editing the audio from the voice chat and will try to get...
2649
Mihai G
mihais
Jun 8, 2005 1:27 am
Thanks Chris. I wonder if you and Phil still plan to "leg into" the second subject of our initial chat: the put ratio spread. Regards, mihais Christopher Smith...
2650
JULIUS BARIMA
yawbarima2002
Jun 8, 2005 12:30 pm
I WILL BE INTERESTED IN YOUR SPREADSHEET IT IS SIMPLE AND EASY TO UNDERSTAND. THANKS. YAW BARIMA "Toni R. Davidson" <toni@...> wrote: Kent: Please...
2651
JULIUS BARIMA
yawbarima2002
Jun 8, 2005 12:33 pm
Hi there, your articles have very useful contents. I will be interested in ;the July SPX iron condor spread. THANKS. YAW BARIMA Christopher Smith...
2652
FX_FADE
Jun 8, 2005 3:50 pm
I'm very interested in a July trade. My horrible exam is finished so I'm now a FREE MAN. Warm up the options! Hope you all are well!!! -Kent ... try to get it...
2653
tickerme2000
Jun 8, 2005 6:31 pm
Thanks for the e-mail. I would be interested in following a new trade (iron condor) for July. Tickerme...
2654
larri430
Jun 8, 2005 6:31 pm
Please advise when ready. LARRY ALLEN larri430@......
2655
FX_FADE
Jun 8, 2005 8:31 pm
I've been watching XMSR after mentioning it on our forum a week ago. It's now pulling back and probably has a little bit further to go. That's not my idea...
2656
ditchplainsdude
Jun 8, 2005 8:56 pm
Count me in....
2657
Charles H Martin
charlesmartin14
Jun 8, 2005 9:20 pm
me too ! ... From: ditchplainsdude To: OptionClub@yahoogroups.com Sent: Wednesday, June 08, 2005 1:44 PM Subject: [TheOptionClub.com] Iron Condor dor July...
2658
Christopher Smith
theoptionclub
Jun 8, 2005 11:11 pm
The trade is on ADBL, right? I saw the same deal announced. XMSR is going to sell devices that will receive XMSR's satellite feed and will allow content from...
2659
Christopher Smith
theoptionclub
Jun 8, 2005 11:40 pm
Kent, Another thought, if you're convinced ADBL is really going to run. You might consider a call ratio backspread. For example, a September 17.50/20.00 3x2...
2660
FX_FADE
Jun 9, 2005 11:30 am
Thanks for the info, Chris. Rookie mistake on my part -- I didn't look at the IV chart. That's the one thing that isn't currently available on the TOS platform...
2661
D. Paris
parisd2002
Jun 9, 2005 2:00 pm
YES INTERESTED BY ANOTHER TRADE IN JULY ... will try to get it posted on the website this week. Thank you to all of you that have persevered as I know you've...
2662
Charles I. Webster III
kipwebster
Jun 9, 2005 2:01 pm
ABSOLUTELY Y-E-S-S-S!!! That is all I do ...why not go TWO months out & do an AUG ...or..a SEP'05 I.C.???? Regards & Good trading, Traderkip ...
