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From: discussbusinesscontinuity@yahoogroups.com [mailto:discussbusinesscontinuity@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of mark.mahoney53
Sent: 08 July 2009 13:59
To: discussbusinesscontinuity@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [discussbusinesscontinuity] Re: Swine Flu Dilemma - what would you do? - one month later

Hello Greg,
Firstly, I am surprised that you cannot get Tamiflu in France, however there must be another prophylaxis in France that is endorsed/licensed for influenza; maybe it has another name?! Contact Glaxo on this.
Regarding next Autumn, you will hear many stories about: the second wave of a pandemic being more aggressive than the first, the mutation of the H1N1 viral strain, a reduction in 30% of the work force, all of which, in theory, is true.
So what can you do? You now have a window of opportunity to test your pandemic plans and ensure that you can resource your critical functions with reduced staffing levels, chances are that you won't be able to because like most other organisations you are already working at 'efficient levels'; but this is why you test. Once you have determined where you are exposed with regard to staffing you can then put in place controls to mitigate against the threat of influenza, i.e. invest in home working infrastructure, cross training, dispersing critical functions etc etc whatever you do choose to put into place you must do before the autumn.
Interesting point, in the 1977 pandemic, the American administration allegedly prepared for a 2nd wave of the pandemic by vaccinating the whole population; the second wave never came!!
Enjoy the Summer but prepare for a reduction in staffing as influenza is not the only threat to reduce your staffing resource.
rgds
Mark

--- In discussbusinesscontinuity@yahoogroups.com, Soukiassian Gregoire <pra_edf@...> wrote:
>
> All,
> Wondering if you had plans for the next fall;  what do you think : is it better to have the flu right now rather than at next autumn?
> In France there is no possibility to get Tamiflu, even with a prescription. What is the situation in other areas?
> Thanks for your input. Enjoy the summer season !
>
> Greg Soukiassian
> CBCP
>
> --- En date de : Mar 16.6.09, Scott Sanderson <scottdsanderson@...> a écrit :
>
> De: Scott Sanderson <scottdsanderson@...>
> Objet: RE: [discussbusinesscontinuity] Swine Flu Dilemma - what would you do? - Jeff Charlton comment
> À: "BCP Yahoo group" <discussbusinesscontinuity@yahoogroups.com>
> Date: Mardi 16 Juin 2009, 19h31
>
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> Jeff,
>
>  I love how you put this all into perspective.  I have heard stories all of my life about the Pandemic of 1918.  Deaths were common and they dealt with them as they did for many other common causes of death. Â Influenza has always been a killer.  Even with modern medicine and cleanliness practices of today it is hard not to get sneezed upon or to touch something that has been touched by so many others.  If we have learned nothing about Pandemics, we have learned that they can still happen today.  All of our gains over 1918/1919 in medicine and cleanliness are offset by widespread travel and the proximity to others in which we now live our lives.  We have so many more confined spaces with so many more people that use them (airplanes, buses, cars, metros etc.).  There are still slobs today who think nothing of sneezing, coughing and leaving slime in common places.  You would think that we have not progressed very far sometimes over 1918
> when you see some peoples habits.  What we know about germs, bacteria and viruses are light years over 1918 and yet, we don't know it all and we cannot stop it all.  Eventually we might find that our miracle drugs are no longer working. 
>
>  I really believe that we have to be ready with solid BCP plans that have thought out the types of decisions that might have to be made in a Pandemic.  If we do that, we will have answers to what it is we can do now to help provide goods and services, care and concern to our employees and our fellow man.
>
> Scott
>  
>
>
> To: discussbusinesscont inuity@yahoogrou ps.com
> From: TimWArmit@aol. com
> Date: Fri, 12 Jun 2009 09:02:08 -0400
> Subject: Fwd: [discussbusinesscon tinuity] Swine Flu Dilemma - what would you do? - Jeff Charlton comment
>
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> Jeff
> thanks for your reply and yes anyone can hypothesize about anything (and they do) until they have a fact, I am sure doctors will say many things, until something happens and they know something for sure.
> As for 1919 we had just come out of the worst war the world had ever seen, there was mass malnutrition, abject poverty and a medical system based on paying with minimal understanding of diseases and solutions.  I would have as much fear of going to the dentist in 1919 compared to 2009, things, lives, natural base health and live expectancy, circumstances, medicine and education moves on. 
> I am going to the pub tonight for a beer, there will be people there who will have traveled all over the world, due to hay fever many will be sneezing, I am sure I will have a great night.
> Cheers all
> Tim Â 
>
>
> Tim Armit
> Clifton Risk Management
> 01253 711003
> 0774 82 83 662
> timarmit@cliftonris k.com
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: TimWArmit@aol. com
> To: discussbusinesscont inuity@yahoogrou ps.com
> Sent: Fri, 12 Jun 2009 10:23
> Subject: Re: [discussbusinesscon tinuity] Swine Flu Dilemma - what would you do?
>
>
>
>
> Nick
>  
> maybe it depends on how good the food on offer was?
> Who knows, there is the danger of hysteria and lock down (look how a little snow brought London to its knees) and how the media reacts each time will be key on how people think.
> I would guess most people on this forum lived through the last real (and serious) pandemic with over 1 million dying and what did we do then? How many companies had plans? How many schools closed? How did the media handle it? Where was the mass panic, the huge consultancy bills (to tell you to wash your hands !!!)?  !968/69/70 we just got on with it. Â Would all this investment and discussion we have now really have made any significant impact then in terms of affect?
> Its great for conferences and consultants but........
> Hope she went and the wine was lovely
> Tim
>  
>  
>  
> messsage dated 12/06/2009 09:13:40 GMT Daylight Time, nicksimms@cornwood. co.uk writes:
>
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>
> True situation.
>
> My wife - a Fellow of the BCI - and a group of girl friends were due to get together last night for dinner at a local restaurant, as they do on a regular basis.
>
> One of the likely attendees - you never know who is actually going to appear until they arrive - is the mother of a child at a school that is closed due to swine flu. The child's Facebook status has stated for at least a week that s/he has been diagnosed by the Health Protection Agency (HPA)as having swine flu and that the whole family has been issued with Tamiflu. You have known this woman for 20 years; she and your husband are distantly related; and the child is a good friend of one of your children (which is why you know about the child's Facebook status).
>
> Your 82-year old father-in-law (i.e. my father) has just come out of hospital after major surgery and various members of your immediate family, including your 16-year old son who is in the middle of public (GCSE) exams, suffer from asthma. At least four of the other women in the 20 or so who are invited, including the organiser, have elderly relatives either in hospital or recuperating from major surgery.
>
> What would you do?
>
> Would your answer be different if you knew the friend was a medical practitioner?
>
> Needless to say, the discussion in our household last night before the dinner was quite lively but I wanted to see what other people thought.
>
> Best wishes
>
> Nick Simms
>
> nicksimms@cornwood. co.uk
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