Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2008 11:10:51 -0800
From: Tom Atlee <cii@...>
Subject: [NCDD-DISCUSSION] A Call to Prepare Together for Uncertain Futures
To: NCDD-DISCUSSION@...

(Reply to phoenixconversations@...)

January 2008

PHOENIX CONVERSATIONS --
A CALL TO PREPARE FOR PROFOUNDLY UNCERTAIN FUTURE CRISES

(Please pass it on and distribute in your networks.)


An undercurrent of conversations is bubbling in all sectors -- among
businesspeople, government officials, futurists, activists, citizens
over back fences and blogs... There is a growing sense of crisis
that neither mainstream leaders nor the public quite know what to do
with. Many of us are talking about it in our own circles,
separately, out of the public eye. Very little of this conversation
is visible in the mainstream press and political debates, so we don't
realize how many other people and institutions are discussing it.

Practically everyone has an opinion about this uneasy topic of
crisis. Indeed, there is widespread, legitimate disagreement about
the extent to which a "perfect storm" of complementary crises may be
emerging in the near future, involving, but not limited to:
* peak oil
* accelerating climate change
* serious economic disruption
* loss of democracy
* significant resource depletion (including fresh water and arable land)
* international instability and terrorism
* increasingly disruptive technology developments and
* "wild card" events such as pandemics.
Many people believe that one or more of these or other crises could
become catastrophic within decades or less. Some corporations are
planning to profit by them, while some activists are planning to use
them to push major social change agendas. Most citizens are just
trying to get a grip on what's happening, each in their own limited
way.

Despite the widespread sense that these are real challenges, hardly
anywhere do we find diverse people exploring the full range of
possibilities in each of these potential crisis areas, and seriously
considering the impacts they might have on each other, for better and
for worse, if they happened together.

This is a serious omission. By the very nature of these potential
crises, we cannot know for certain how they will unfold. The natural
and social systems within which they are emerging are complex,
chaotic, vast, and increasingly out-of-equilibrium. Small unexpected
developments could turn any of these challenges into minor problems
or major catastropes within a very short time ... or change the game
entirely. If we could be certain what the future would bring, and
how these possible crises would play out, then perhaps we could
discover or develop the best approach for dealing with each of them.
But we can't. We just can't be sure. And that's the rub.

Now here's the surprise: In these circumstances of profound
uncertainty, the fact that we disagree about our collective future
and how to handle it could be our most important asset.

Living systems tend to be as resilient as they are diverse. In the
same ways that diversified investments are considered more secure
than putting all your money into one stock, genetic variation makes a
crop more resilient against bugs. Crop species and populations that
include wide variation don't tend to collapse when challenged,
because they can call on a wide spectrum of strengths and
resistances. Some variations may die, but others thrive, with the
specifics depending on which environmental challenges show up. The
same can be said for ideas and approaches. Since we don't know what
will happen, it behooves us to have people and organizations who are
researching, advocating, and preparing for as wide a range of
scenarios and outcomes as possible.

Well, we already have that. What's missing is that most of these
players are not fluent at thinking along that whole spectrum -- or
even communicating with others who are thinking about a different set
of outcomes. This makes it less likely that the ideas and approaches
we need to deal with what occurs -- or might occur -- will be
available at the right time and place to choose from. We are talking
already, just not with each other. We are people in various sectors
-- from diverse officials and experts to diverse ordinary citizens
and community members -- who hold different views about what might
happen, and who have different knowledge, resources, and connections.
It is time we start REALLY talking together across boundaries,
stimulating each other's thinking, cross-fertilizing ideas, even
collaborating -- because all of us are smarter than any of us.

We can explore various scenarios together, asking, "If that happened,
what would that mean? What else would be happening? What kind of
response would be called for? What would we do?" We can explain to
each other what it is like to be working where we work, living where
we live, the opportunities and constraints we know about that might
be relevant to how all this plays out. We can share what it feels
like to explore the potential disruptions of crisis -- or to talk
with other people who feel so dramatically different about it than we
do. We can learn from and about each other and store up our deepened
understandings and relationships for the future, when we just might
need them.

The idea of such conversations -- which we're calling Phoenix
Conversations -- isn't to plan, so much as it is to become more
fluent and flexible in navigating an unknown, unknowable future
together. The more we explore such scenarios and diverse
perspectives, the more prepared we become to meet any given future,
even ones we haven't thought of before. And when we interact with
such scenarios together in a safe, passionate, respectful atmosphere
-- whether done through disciplined scenario work, wildly creative
emergent processes, or down-at-the-cafe conversation -- we discover
more about who each other is, and where it might be productive to
think or work together further.

There are many ways -- organized* or spontaneous -- to have such
conversations. If you are a friend or neighbor talking with others
about this, think about how you could explore different scenarios
together. If you are a professional conversation host or
facilitator, consider suggesting or convening a Phoenix Conversation
that engages your community or clients. If you are already engaged
in crisis-oriented conversations or preparations of any kind with
anyone, you may want to seek out others from other sectors or other
perspectives to talk with. If you have relevant expertise or
projects, you may want to bring your knowledge and questions into a
conversation that includes a wider range of people, a wider range of
potential crises, and a wider range of scenarios from mild to serious
to devastating. The more diverse people become connected to each
other and comfortable with the variety of possible responses to
diverse possibilities, the more prepared we will all be in meeting
whatever happens.

The Phoenix Conversations Project is convening conference calls (and
soon a website) where those of us interested in this approach can
talk about what it might mean and what else we might do, separately
and together, and learn as we go. If you are interested in joining
one of these calls, send an email to phoenixconversations@...
briefly describing conversations like these that you are having or
would like to have, what you think might help you in the process,
your interest in connecting with others, and any relevant experience.
We will get in touch with you.

Finally, if you know of any financial or organizing resources which
could be applied to this project to help make the best use of
whatever emerges from these conversations, do let us know.

We are, after all, all in it together -- no matter what happens.

Jennifer Atlee
Tom Atlee
Susan Cannon
Peggy Holman


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* For diverse approaches to powerful conversations, and to connect
with networks of dialogue hosts and facilitators, see the National
Coalition for Dialogue and Deliberation website
.

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Our purpose is to catalyze conversations that use the power
of diversity and interactive imagination to nurture proactive
and evolutionary responses to potential crises by citizens,
leaders, organizations, communities and nations.