Been running so long,
... lost all track of time.
In every direction,
... couldn't see the warning signs.

The Go-Go's
Head Over Heels
(Caffey/Valentine)

It was just 18 months when oil was at $45 a barrel. A barrel of oil
that is know almost $70, today. Today we hear of America's addiction
to oil. A dependence our President, the Bush Administration
acknowledges. An acknowledgement of an addiction made known and
revealed 30 years ago by the Nixon Administration. The same
addiction... a dependence on oil. They say change doesn't happen
overnight but the rallying cry has been there for over 30 years.
Energy independence maybe a be a cry that rings hollow at least for
the next 30 years. Today foreign oil imports account for 58% of our
oil needs. By 2025 this number is projected to be 68% (federal
estimates). Tomorrow's risk premium factors or variables in an
evolving world may make their presence more pronounced and not
negligible. Tight world-wide oil supplies account for approximately
$10 dollars in the price of a barrel of oil. Trading and speculation
of crude futures or the future price of oil may account for as much
as $20. Bottlenecks in refinery infrastructures? China? Iran?
Venezuela? An oil trade based on euros and not dollars? or have we
even considered a possible strategic attack on oil installations to
one or several of our major if not key oil supplying partners as a
scenario?? The plausible inevitability of such an event would be
cataclysmic. Risk mitigation and premiums would be reduced to "what
was" and not "if's"... and mere footnotes to capitalism. Capitalism
where oil would become the most expensive commodity to be afforded by
nations. The forces that had diligently powered the dynamo of wealth
creation is suddenly halted like the magnetic fields of Mars. What
would tomorrow bring?...

The phenomenon of globalisation may usher in a world that may make it
increasingly difficult to control these risk premiums if not create
new and more volatile ones around oil. Multi-dimensional playing
fields borne by these environment could empower criminal/illicit and
transnational individuals(*), organizations(**) and even terrorists
of failed states(***) or even bring them into them. Value neutral
tokens advantages to us in the western world could easily be as
effective tools to them. Their ability to operate and launch
operation from anywhere to everywhere could compound our oil problem.
Their version of small organized attacks brought to our shores will
be just as effective if not more as the wars we bring to them. Stable
oil prices if not peace will be a misnomer in this new world, their
world, ruled by them. A versatile enemy is born...

"I feel the weight of the future bearing down on me.
A future I don't want... so i keep running.
As fast as i can, anywhere... nowhere... "

John Connor(Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines)

The moral question to this story is should we wait for the
inevitability of doom, progressing down a path to "Judgement Day";
the commencement of that final 7 years of civilization whence
2005 began? or do we change the fate of current and future
generations for the better by searching for better answers now? In
the story of Mr. John Connor, the headlights of caution wasn't
directed at the deer... it was directed at him.

May all your endeavors lead you to prosperity.

P. Mavin


Disclosure: Mavin is a fictional charactor. The Mavin Trilogy is a
work of fiction. Under no circumstance should this story be taken as
a predictor of future events. All rights to the story and its'
elements are reserved. Any copyright infringement will be subject to
criminal prosecution.


*bankers, financiers or industrialists driven by greed, self-interests
and even revenge
**thriving in the underworld of black market capitalism
***oil producers included