I can't say it better than Joseph. I wish you all an amazing 2012, full of joy and achievements. Greetings from Argentina Jorge Ronchese Enviado desde mi...
14569
Helen
bhwu98
Jan 1, 2012 6:33 pm
thanks! Happy new year to every one! it is sad to learn from the discussions that developers don't think. My hope is to see such mindset changing in 2012. ...
14570
Mauro Botelho
mabotelh
Jan 1, 2012 7:25 pm
In an agile team, velocity is normally what is used to predict a project's duration. When velocity is not stable, predictability suffers greatly. Obvious ways...
14571
David Anderson
netherby_uk
Jan 2, 2012 1:48 am
Struggling to see the precise relevance of this post to Kanban? [Moderator]...
14572
David Anderson
netherby_uk
Jan 2, 2012 1:50 am
Mauro, Can you... (a) define what you mean by stability in this context? (b) put your reply in a format that makes it relevant to Kanban? Thanks David...
14573
Zsolt Fabok
zsoltfabok
Jan 2, 2012 8:17 am
Hi Doug, Can you share a link where I can read more about this calculation? Thanks, Zsolt...
14574
Mauro Botelho
mabotelh
Jan 2, 2012 3:27 pm
Zsolt, Take a look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sum_of_normally_distributed_random_variables Mauro...
14575
Mauro Botelho
mabotelh
Jan 2, 2012 4:03 pm
I'm sorry if I didn't frame the question properly. We currently use Scrum at the team level. I think we need to introduce Kanban on top of it and perhaps phase...
14576
Kurt Häusler
kurt.haeusler
Jan 2, 2012 4:13 pm
Just a couple of points. Lead times aren't normally distributed and adding them assumes you finish one thing before you start the next which is not normally...
14577
Mike Burrows
asplake
Jan 2, 2012 6:18 pm
... That was me, but I'm quite sure that I was trying to suggest (not clearly enough it seems) that you tried to guage not just how long the last n cards took...
14578
lubos.ilcik
Jan 2, 2012 9:59 pm
Jeff, I would be grateful to hear from you if this 3-tier Kanban concept was proved working in practice or how did you improve it. We are thinking of applying...
14579
David Anderson
netherby_uk
Jan 2, 2012 10:05 pm
Mauro, It sounds like you are defining "stability" as a wides-spread of variability. This is typically not the acceptable definition of "stability." What you...
14580
mebalone
Jan 3, 2012 12:33 am
14581
David Anderson
netherby_uk
Jan 3, 2012 2:39 am
So if the problem is with predictability of delivery date then we should address that problem directly. Velocity (at best) is a measure of throughput (or...
14582
RonJeffries
ronaldejeffries
Jan 3, 2012 9:42 am
Hi David, ... If I understand this, the result is that the decision makers still cannot predict when a produce will be done, so much as control what they ask...
14583
Dan Brown
splintuk
Jan 3, 2012 10:07 am
In practice you can predict very accurately in Kanban using real statistical data, and to a high degree of tolerance. If you know 88% of stories of a certain...
14584
RonJeffries
ronaldejeffries
Jan 3, 2012 10:17 am
Hi Dan, ... I've had amazing conversations for years. I've also noticed that no one has a complete spec, no spec is detailed enough to estimate, and they...
14585
Dan Brown
splintuk
Jan 3, 2012 10:31 am
Oh yes, all the time, but this approach helped that. We didn't estimate at all. Instead we sized the story for complexity: we had a developer look at it for no...
14586
RonJeffries
ronaldejeffries
Jan 3, 2012 10:42 am
Hi Dan, ... If that's the case, and you're shipping "on time", then surely you are doing so by managing scope? Ron Jeffries www.XProgramming.com I know we...
14587
Dan Brown
splintuk
Jan 3, 2012 10:50 am
Yes, exactly that. Time is fixed (usually), team size is what it is, and bringing people in late will usually slow things down, quality is non-negotiable so...
14588
RonJeffries
ronaldejeffries
Jan 3, 2012 10:58 am
Hi Dan, ... Yes. As far as I can see, Kanban is (another) way to visualize the rate of making things, so that (product) management can better decide what to...
14589
Dan Brown
splintuk
Jan 3, 2012 11:34 am
It's surely all about making software in a better way for both the stakeholders and for the people making it. Agile surely covers all of that: Scrum, Kanban,...
14590
RonJeffries
ronaldejeffries
Jan 3, 2012 2:17 pm
Hi Dan ... ... None that I can see ... Ron Jeffries www.XProgramming.com I know we always like to say it'll be easier to do it now than it will be to do it...
14591
Patrick Steyaert
p.steyaert
Jan 3, 2012 3:08 pm
Recently I noticed that for different teams that I have been working with the distribution of the cycle times does not seem to be a normal distribution but a...
14592
Kurt Häusler
kurt.haeusler
Jan 3, 2012 3:23 pm
I am not a stats expert, but lead or cycle times are definitely not normally distributed, I think it is more like a Poisson or something, there are a couple of...
14593
Patrick Steyaert
p.steyaert
Jan 3, 2012 5:32 pm
Thanks Kurt. Its just that i see alot of control charts with what seem to be control limits....
14594
David Anderson
netherby_uk
Jan 3, 2012 5:37 pm
Patrick, All lead time distributions I have seen as long tail distribution. I know that Larry Macherone has reported similar results from studying Rally's...
14595
David Anderson
netherby_uk
Jan 3, 2012 5:40 pm
Patrick, You can still have control limits on a Poisson distribution, or any distribution for that matter. The confidence intervals have to calculated based on...
14596
David Anderson
netherby_uk
Jan 3, 2012 5:55 pm
Ron, Comments inline... ... DJA: If the planning horizon is short to medium in length (say less than 9 months), it is (almost) impossible to predict within the...
14597
Pablo Emanuel
pabloemanuel2
Jan 3, 2012 6:05 pm
<<Your suggestion that the Mode may be a useful data element is interesting to me.>> In my experience, the most useful thing analyzing the mode can give you is...
