The video is using TopGun software with an
eSignal feed.
From: leveragefx@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:leveragefx@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf
Of ruedigergerndt Sent: Monday, January 15, 2007
11:42 AM To: leveragefx@yahoogroups.com Subject: [leveragefx] Forex Trend
Snapback Trading System Video
Hello careertrader,
I saw your system working on thetube.com . Thanx for the
link.
What system is it ? Which platform do you use.
I use Interactive brokers with button trader , is this
possible to trade with?
It is actually their system. You can get a
full demo from their advertised site.
From:
leveragefx@yahoogroups.com [mailto:leveragefx@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of ruedigergerndt Sent: Monday, January 15, 2007
2:42 PM To: leveragefx@yahoogroups.com Subject: [leveragefx] Forex Trend
Snapback Trading System Video
Hello careertrader,
I saw your system working on thetube.com . Thanx for the
link.
What system is it ? Which platform do you use.
I use Interactive brokers with button trader , is this
possible to trade with?
I would like to introduce our new Forex Trading Forum . This forum will be more educational and designed to showcase over time hundreds of profitable examples of our trading systems and methods.
New Forum Address: http://www.leveragefx.com/forum/
I'd like to keep both forums, our Yahoo one will be more for chitchat and the one on LeverageFX will be more educational and content rich! If you would like to post trading methods or ideas, basically anything educational please do that on our LeverageFX one. Any other posts or simple questions should be on our Yahoo one. Most trading forums have hundreds of messages per month with very little REAL or useful content. I'd like to keep 80% of the content on our Leverage Forum educational and useful. When people spend time reading the posts they will learn something that will immediately benefit them and their trading.
Things I'd like to see posted on new forum.
A) Traders are encouraged to start trading journals. This helps you learn from your mistakes and I will be reading them and commenting and further helping you with your trading. We all learn from our mistakes, often more slowly than we would like but I would also like us all to learn from others mistakes. By posting the good with the bad we all become better traders.
B) Feel free to post notes taken from our classes like Pat did. Thanks Pat! Lennie you posted many articles in our file sections, I appreciate that and will be moving many of them to this new forum for people to learn.
Thanks for your support and loyalty and I wish everyone an AMAZING 2007 !
The fields are on the top of the excel file.
Currency and time Frame
Balance Point in Mins
Period and Multiplier of Keltner are next 2
Ex Period is number of bars to avg volatility for trailing stop
ExMult is the ATR of the trailing stop
Profit Pips is for fixed stop/target but was disabled during this
test so ignore those two.
Total Net Profit shows net profit after 2 pip spread for Euro is
taken out.
Total Profit and Total Loss self explanatory
Trades are total number of trades
Win % is winning percentage
Wins are # of wins
Loss are # of losses
Avg Win - How much the avg winning trade made
Avg Loss - How much the avg losing trade lost
Cons Wins - consecutive wins
Cons +$ is how much was made during the consecutive wins
Cons Loss - how many consecutive losses in a row
Cons -$ is how much was lost during the consecutive losses
Tighten Array is for the ratchet stops
Pretty self explanatory I had thought.
--- In leveragefx@yahoogroups.com, "Dave Edwards" <dmedwards@...>
wrote:
>
> Interesting data set but I could use some explanation of the
columns and the rows, for instance why are there many rows that
appear to be none trades? Also what is the column "Trades"? They
are not unique numbers so does it represent trade days?
> Without clearly understanding what the data means it is difficult
to have confidence in any conclusions I might guess at.
> So a summary description would also be useful in lieu of more
detail the data.
> Thanks
> Dave
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: careerdaytrader
> To: leveragefx@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Wednesday, December 27, 2006 1:24 PM
> Subject: [leveragefx] Trend Snapback Backtesting Results
>
>
> TSnapBack_EUR Results.csv has been added to the File section.
>
> Make sure to select all fields and sort rows by Net Profits
> or Win %.
>
--- In leveragefx@yahoogroups.com, "careerdaytrader"
<careerdaytrader@...> wrote:
>Hi!
Thanks for the posting, However, I don't see the file posted. Could you
double check?
JC
> TSnapBack_EUR Results.csv has been added to the File section.
>
> Make sure to select all fields and sort rows by Net Profits
> or Win %.
>
Interesting data set but I could use some explanation of the columns and the rows, for instance why are there many rows that appear to be none trades? Also what is the column "Trades"? They are not unique numbers so does it represent trade days?
Without clearly understanding what the data means it is difficult to have confidence in any conclusions I might guess at.
So a summary description would also be useful in lieu of more detail the data.
Looking Ahead
With 2007 nearly upon us, new themes in FX will likely pop-up - or more accuarately themes that have been out of favor in 2006.
FX is typically driven by one of two things:
- rate differentials
- current account deficit/surplus
The theme in 2006 was clearly one of 'yield' - CHF and JPY suffered
as traders sold these currencies to fund purchases of GBP, NZD, AUD as
well as BRL, MXN and other high yielders.
The question is whether or not this will continue into 2007? While
making trades based on macro analysis is a lousy timing vehicle, at
some point the current account deficits will matter - currently the US
is approaching levels seen in 2003, just prior to a sustained dollar
sell-off.
Just some information to bear in mind for the new year.
Barry Ritholtz submits: My pal Cody wrote a column yesterday titled Reality Check.
He wrote: "Nothing drives me crazier than when people point to the
current state of the economy and lament it as anything less than a
boom." He further laments the parsing of "the macro and microeconomic
data for any little validation of their wrong views."
One thing Cody is definitely right about: if you have been anything but long and strong, you've been wrong (investing wise).
From a trader's perspective, fighting the tape is always a losing
battle. The trend remains up, momentum is positive, seasonal strength
is upon us, and the bears and shorts have been vanquished.
But is that a Reality Check?
Is accepting the Wall Street and Mutual Fund Buy & Hold sales pitch
all that real? Do we really take Government Statistics at face -- and
call that a true gauge of reality? Has our reality simply become the
200 day moving average of the markets?
Take today's benign CPI
data. Futures exploded on the release, and given this is the 2006's
last quadruple witch, the bias will be strongly to the upside (although
we should expect a lot of volatility in individual names). The best
short term advice remains: Don't Fight the Tape!
But the official data continues to be at odds with reality
(not that Traders care a whit about that). The CPI release claims there
is almost no inflation, with core CPI up 2.6% (consensus was for 2.7%).
But consider what the BLS told us today:
• Food prices fell, as orange juice went to record highs, and corn is up 70% since August, while wheat is near 10 yr highs.
• Medical care rose only 0.2% -- apparently, the recent 20% annual increase has been halted.
• Education prices went down 0.2% -- despite widely reported tuition
increases -- primarily caused by a decline in long distance phone
service prices (WTF?).
• Commodities ex-food and energy fell 0.4%, just as the CRB industrial metals index went to a record high.
Thanks to Peter Boockvar of Miller Tabak + Co for much of the data here
Bottom
line remains that the headline numbers look great -- expect markets to
respond positively -- but the reality check is this: these Government BLS numbers simply do not square with reality.
While Investors can recognize this, Traders have no choice but to "ignore reality" and go for the ride. A turret-bound buddy wrote me:
I
don't care about the numbers, the economic data, whether Iraq is in a
Civil war, if the President gets impeached, who controls congress, what
a company does, whether we fall into a recession or if China buys
Europe and turns it into a Disney theme park. My world is defined by
what I see on my four 20 inch monitors in front of me. Everything else
is noise.
That's what is driving the markets. And that's your reality check for the day.
Thanks for your reply.
I have started watching the videos, and am in hopes to have the
software by Friday for class. We'll see.
"Failure hates determination." That is my mantra. So I am not afraid
of hard work.
I like the looks of some of the tools in the videos, ie. the buy/sell
pressure, balance point line, etc. I am very hopeful that this is the
system for me.
I also like the fact that Chris seems so intent on our success. It
definitely helps to have someone in your corner.
I just was nervous because I am not a pro at finding good settings for
indicators. I just haven't had that much experience with them other
than using what the default is. Sometimes different strategies will
give you different settings to use. But it is mostly I guess that I
don't know what exactly is being measured or how it is being measured.
So that makes me a little nervous.
Thanks for your input. I will go over the videos and go thru the
files in the group site. I notice there are settings in there too.
And I will try to find what will work for me.
I like the looks of the heatmap, too. I like the idea of being aware
of the strength of the currency in relation to other currencies. It
seems that in itself would be a strong edge.
Thanks,
Michele
--- In leveragefx@yahoogroups.com, "Michele Ray" <pipiphooray@...>
wrote:
>
> Hi,
> It sounded as though you have to set a lot of the settings on your
> own and figure it out for yourself?? Is that right? Is there good
> support as far as getting you up and running?
Michelle watch the first video on our video page. It shows all
settings we've been using and trading with for a long time.
Recently I have done a lot of backtesting and have released special
versions that backtest various settings to see which have the
highest win percentage and make the most money. I've told people to
DO THE RESEARCH using this latest version because if people are
simply told what to do or what settings to use they will NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE in the system to pull the trigger and make money.
Learning to trade involves listening to the teacher but also
spending hours of self research to GAIN the confidence. That's why
I said that in class. You can't be shown how to trade but you can
be shown profitable trading methods. The trader then must figure
out on their own which systems they can actually pull the trigger on
and FOLLOW. That again takes confidence and only way to gain that
is through either trading it or watching it over tons of examples on
the chart. In a nutshell WORK. Lots of hard work and time. There
is a huge correlation between traders who make money and those who
spend a lot of time doing SELF STUDY. I've been too easy on our
traders and am starting to crack down and tell people to do the
research themselves. It may sound harsh but is in their own best
interest.
> I have never worked with Keltners, so I am not really familiar with
> what settings would be good settings.
Go watch the indicator optimization video plus the rest. Ask
questions after you've done the study. There's about 20 hours worth
of videos.
> Was it easy to learn and catch onto? About how long does it take
> to be up, running, and able to trade live with confidence?
This again depends on how much self study a person does. Look at
lots of past charts, its the only way to gain confidence that a
method works.
> It looked like a pretty good system, but a little confusing as far
> as sometimes he was saying that red showed strength and sometimes
> green showed strength. Is there a member's area where people with
> the system can meet and exchange ideas?
Red shows chart should go down, Green shows it should go up. It's
really kindergarden simple. How this works underneath is complicated
but I'm going to just focus on how easy it is to use when you simply
just watch the colors.
Hi,
I am new to the group and went to my first meeting today. I would
like some feedback from some members on how the system is working for you.
It sounded as though you have to set a lot of the settings on your own
and figure it out for yourself?? Is that right? Is there good
support as far as getting you up and running?
I have never worked with Keltners, so I am not really familiar with
what settings would be good settings.
Was it easy to learn and catch onto? About how long does it take to
be up, running, and able to trade live with confidence?
It looked like a pretty good system, but a little confusing as far as
sometimes he was saying that red showed strength and sometimes green
showed strength. Is there a member's area where people with the
system can meet and exchange ideas?
Thanks,
Michele
hi iS the esignal data the full esignal or is it the tahoe charts
(forexcharts )forex feed that is separate from standard esignal?
best
Robert
.
>
> Chris Donnell
> http://www.leveragefx.com
>
> For those who are new to trading foreign currency get our TopGun
> trading software and eSignal data free when you trade with us. See
> website above for details.
>
I wonder whether the FOMC meeting on Tuesday now becomes a dollar
positive if the Fed maintains the same relatively optimistic economic
outlook.
Forex market takes a breather - Interesting read
http://tinyurl.com/y44r9b
The
falling dollar Nov 30th 2006 From The Economist print edition
A further drop is likely as the American economy slows. THE dollar's
tumble this week was attended by predictable shrieks from the markets; but as
it fell to a 20-month low of $1.32 against the euro, the only real surprise was
that it had not slipped sooner. Indeed, there are good reasons to expect its
slide to continue, dragging it below the record low of $1.36 against the euro
that it hit in December 2004.
The recent decline was triggered
by nasty news about the American economy. New figures this week suggested that
the housing market's troubles are having a wider impact on the economy. Consumer
confidence and durable-goods orders both fell more sharply than expected. In
contrast, German business confidence has risen to a 15-year high. There are
also mounting concerns that central banks in China and elsewhere, which have
been piling up dollars assiduously for years, may start selling.
Ben Bernanke, chairman of America's
Federal Reserve, sounded unperturbed this week, suggesting that the economy
will enjoy a soft landing (which would argue that interest-rate cuts are not
imminent). This notion has underpinned the belief that the dollar will hold up
because foreign investors will remain eager to buy dollar assets and so finance
the country's vast current-account deficit. But if the economy slows more
sharply than expected, their enthusiasm for the greenback will shrink. And if
house prices continue to fall, the risk of a recession will grow.
Yet cyclical factors only
partly explain why the dollar has been strong. At bottom, its attractiveness is
based more on structural factors—or, more accurately, on an illusion about
structural differences between the American and European economies.
The weak strongman. The main reason for the dollar's
strength has been the widespread belief that the American economy vastly
outperformed the world's other rich-country economies in recent years. But the
figures do not support the hype. Sure, America's
GDP growth has been faster than Europe's, but
that is mostly because its population has grown more quickly too. Dig deeper,
and the difference shrinks. Official figures of productivity growth, which
should in theory be an important factor driving currency movements, exaggerate America's lead.
If the two are measured on a comparable basis, productivity growth over the
past decade has been almost the same in the euro area as it has in America. Even
more important, the latest figures suggest that, whereas productivity growth is
now slowing in America,
it is accelerating in the euro zone.
So, contrary to popular
perceptions, America's
economy has not significantly outperformed Europe's
in recent years. And to achieve this not-much-better-than parity, America has had
to pump itself full of steroids. Since 2000 its structural budget deficit
(after adjusting for the impact of the economic cycle) has widened sharply,
while American households' saving rate has plunged, causing the current-account
deficit to swell. Over the same period, the euro-area economies saw no fiscal
stimulus and household saving barely budged.
America's growth, thus, has been driven by
consumer spending. That spending, supported by dwindling saving and increased
borrowing, is clearly unsustainable; and the consequent economic and financial
imbalances must inevitably unwind. As that happens, the country could face a
prolonged period of slower growth.
As for Europe,
the old continent is hobbled by inflexible product and labour markets. But
that, paradoxically, is an advantage: it means the place has a lot of scope for
improvement. Some European countries are beginning to contemplate (and, to a
limited extent, undertake) economic reforms. If they push ahead, their growth
could actually speed up over the coming years. Once investors spot this, they
are likely to conclude that the euro is a better bet than the dollar.
It needn't hurt. Two countervailing factors, it is argued, will tend to
support the dollar. First, emerging economies hold so many greenbacks that they
fear the capital loss that they would incur if they encouraged the dollar to drop.
Second, they want to keep the value of their currencies down to help their
exports. But the longer they continue to pile up dollars, the bigger the
eventual losses. That thought is likely to discourage them from buying even
more dollars. And they may calculate that the greenback still has a way to
fall. Talk of its weakness is greatly exaggerated: its real trade-weighted
exchange rate against a broad basket of currencies is still close to its
30-year average. In other words, the dollar needs to fall by a lot more to make
a significant dent in America's
external deficit.
Does a falling dollar,
with its implications of American weakness, spell doom for the rest of the
planet? Not necessarily. The world economy could well benefit from a gradual
slide in the greenback. It would help to reduce global current-account
imbalances and, by shifting production into America's
tradable sector, would cushion the United States' economy as its
housing bubble bursts. True, a weaker dollar would tend to hurt exporters in
Europe and Asia. But the impact on those
economies could be offset if central banks hold interest rates lower than they
otherwise would, thereby boosting domestic demand—exactly what is required for
global rebalancing. The current strength of growth in Europe and Asia will also help to prevent an American downturn from
turning in to a worldwide slump.
If a steady slide in the
dollar would be good news, a sharp plunge as investors take fright and run
would be another matter. That could increase risk premiums and unnerve frothy
financial markets around the world. A tumbling dollar would also add to
inflationary pressures in America
and so make it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates to cushion a collapsing
housing market (Mr Bernanke gave warning this week that inflation remains
"uncomfortably high"). Both America
and the world would then pay a painful price for the long-delayed drop in the
dollar.
Sterling moves have increasingly been dominated by technical
considerations and the targeting of key resistance levels. Further
speculative buying is possible, but there is the growing risk of a
very sharp corrective fall.
Sterling broke through resistance close to 1.9550 against the dollar
and strengthened to highs of 1.9690 in US trading, a fresh 14-year
peak for the UK currency. Sterling continued to gain ground on Friday
with a move to near 1.9750 before a retreat to 1.9670. Following the
convincing break of 1.9550, markets will be looking to target the 2.00
level, although the main feature is likely to be a sustained increase
in volatility.
The UK data on Thursday was weaker than expected with consumer
confidence falling to -7 in November from -5 the previous month while
the CBI retail survey recorded an expected sales balance of -9 for
November compared with -4 the previous month, the weakest report since
March. There will be the growing risks of a sharp adjustment to
expectations if forthcoming data remains weak. The CIPS index for the
manufacturing sector weakened to 52.6 in November from 53.5 in October.
The Bank of England comments on Thursday were broadly neutral,
although the relative lack of concern over Sterling strength will
offer some UK currency support.
10-Year Yields Interesting historical data point: With the ISM coming
in under 50 this morning, it seems to side with the bond markets
assessment of the economy versus what Bernake has been stating. The
Fed has never hiked interest rates when the ISM has been below 50.0
and thus dampens significantly concerns over the recent hawkish
rhetoric from the Fed. Trading Impact: look for lower yields and a
weaker dollar in the weeks ahead.