Search the web
Sign In
New User? Sign Up
leveragefx · LeverageFX Forex Group
? Already a member? Sign in to Yahoo!

Yahoo! Groups Tips

Did you know...
Hear how Yahoo! Groups has changed the lives of others. Take me there.

Best of Y! Groups

   Check them out and nominate your group.
Having problems with message search? Fill out this form to ensure your group is one of the first to be migrated to the new message search system.

Messages

  Messages Help
Advanced
Messages 452 - 602 of 602   Newest  |  < Newer  |  Older >  |  Oldest
Messages: Show Message Summaries   (Group by Topic) Sort by Date v  
#481 From: leveragefx@yahoogroups.com
Date: Tue Apr 3, 2007 5:13 pm
Subject: New file uploaded to leveragefx
leveragefx@yahoogroups.com
Send Email Send Email
 
Hello,

This email message is a notification to let you know that
a file has been uploaded to the Files area of the leveragefx
group.

   File        : /eurjpy.sty
   Uploaded by : careerdaytrader <careerdaytrader@...>
   Description : EUR/JPY Style For TopGun

You can access this file at the URL:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/leveragefx/files/eurjpy.sty

To learn more about file sharing for your group, please visit:
http://help.yahoo.com/help/us/groups/files

Regards,

careerdaytrader <careerdaytrader@...>

#480 From: leveragefx@yahoogroups.com
Date: Tue Apr 3, 2007 5:14 pm
Subject: New file uploaded to leveragefx
leveragefx@yahoogroups.com
Send Email Send Email
 
Hello,

This email message is a notification to let you know that
a file has been uploaded to the Files area of the leveragefx
group.

   File        : /gbpjpy.sty
   Uploaded by : careerdaytrader <careerdaytrader@...>
   Description : GBP/JPY style for TopGun

You can access this file at the URL:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/leveragefx/files/gbpjpy.sty

To learn more about file sharing for your group, please visit:
http://help.yahoo.com/help/us/groups/files

Regards,

careerdaytrader <careerdaytrader@...>

#479 From: "Jarrod A Retzloff" <jarrodretzloff@...>
Date: Wed Jan 17, 2007 1:31 am
Subject: RE: Forex Trend Snapback Trading System Video
hendersonrat
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 

The video is using TopGun software with an eSignal feed. 

 


From: leveragefx@yahoogroups.com [mailto:leveragefx@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of ruedigergerndt
Sent: Monday, January 15, 2007 11:42 AM
To: leveragefx@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [leveragefx] Forex Trend Snapback Trading System Video

 

Hello careertrader,

 

I saw your system working on thetube.com . Thanx for the link.

What system is it ? Which platform do you use.

I use Interactive brokers with button trader , is this possible to trade with?

 

Regards an dthank you for an answer

 

Ruediger

 

 

----- Original Message -----

Sent: Sunday,January, 14,2007 01:35

Subject: [leveragefx] Forex Trend Snapback Trading System Video

 

I put up a video showing how our trend snapback trading system works.


See

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjlnqCi4HP8&mode=user&search=

 


#478 From: "Garn Turner" <garnturner@...>
Date: Wed Jan 17, 2007 10:09 pm
Subject: RE: Forex Trend Snapback Trading System Video
garnturner@...
Send Email Send Email
 
Hello You have to go to leveragefx.com


>From: "ruedigergerndt" <ruedigergerndt@...>
>Reply-To: leveragefx@yahoogroups.com
>To: <leveragefx@yahoogroups.com>
>Subject: [leveragefx] Forex Trend Snapback Trading System Video
>Date: Mon, 15 Jan 2007 14:41:55 -0500
>
>Hello careertrader,
>
>I saw your system working on thetube.com . Thanx for the link.
>What system is it ? Which platform do you use.
>I use Interactive brokers with button trader , is this possible to trade
>with?
>
>Regards an dthank you for an answer
>
>Ruediger
>
>
>   ----- Original Message -----
>   From: careerdaytrader
>   To: leveragefx@yahoogroups.com
>   Sent: Sunday,January, 14,2007 01:35
>   Subject: [leveragefx] Forex Trend Snapback Trading System Video
>
>
>
>   I put up a video showing how our trend snapback trading system works.
>
>
>   See
>
>   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjlnqCi4HP8&mode=user&search=
>
>
>
>
>

_________________________________________________________________
Invite your Hotmail contacts to join your friends list with Windows Live
Spaces
http://clk.atdmt.com/MSN/go/msnnkwsp0070000001msn/direct/01/?href=http://spaces.\
live.com/spacesapi.aspx?wx_action=create&wx_url=/friends.aspx&mkt=en-us

#477 From: "Milan" <milanjanca303@...>
Date: Wed Jan 17, 2007 12:32 am
Subject: RE: Forex Trend Snapback Trading System Video
milanjanca303@...
Send Email Send Email
 

It is actually their system. You can get a full demo from their advertised site.

 


From: leveragefx@yahoogroups.com [mailto:leveragefx@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of ruedigergerndt
Sent: Monday, January 15, 2007 2:42 PM
To: leveragefx@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [leveragefx] Forex Trend Snapback Trading System Video

 

Hello careertrader,

 

I saw your system working on thetube.com . Thanx for the link.

What system is it ? Which platform do you use.

I use Interactive brokers with button trader , is this possible to trade with?

 

Regards an dthank you for an answer

 

Ruediger

 

 

----- Original Message -----

Sent: Sunday,January, 14,2007 01:35

Subject: [leveragefx] Forex Trend Snapback Trading System Video

 

I put up a video showing how our trend snapback trading system works.


See

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjlnqCi4HP8&mode=user&search=

 


#476 From: "ruedigergerndt" <ruedigergerndt@...>
Date: Mon Jan 15, 2007 7:41 pm
Subject: Forex Trend Snapback Trading System Video
ruedigergerndt@...
Send Email Send Email
 
Hello careertrader,
 
I saw your system working on thetube.com . Thanx for the link.
What system is it ? Which platform do you use.
I use Interactive brokers with button trader , is this possible to trade with?
 
Regards an dthank you for an answer
 
Ruediger
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday,January, 14,2007 01:35
Subject: [leveragefx] Forex Trend Snapback Trading System Video

I put up a video showing how our trend snapback trading system works.


See

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjlnqCi4HP8&mode=user&search=


#475 From: "careerdaytrader" <careerdaytrader@...>
Date: Sun Jan 14, 2007 6:35 pm
Subject: Forex Trend Snapback Trading System Video
careerdaytrader
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 

I put up a video showing how our trend snapback trading system works.


See

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjlnqCi4HP8&mode=user&search=

 


#474 From: "careerdaytrader" <careerdaytrader@...>
Date: Sun Jan 7, 2007 9:16 pm
Subject: Forex Pivot Point Trading Video
careerdaytrader
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 

Hello,

I just posted a new video on how to trade using Pivot Points.  Visit

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUqnMqeH6MY

If you like the video please give it 5 stars so more people will find it among the millions of videos on that site.

Chris


#473 From: "careerdaytrader" <careerdaytrader@...>
Date: Tue Jan 2, 2007 10:36 pm
Subject: Fibonacci Training Video on YouTube.com
careerdaytrader
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 

Hello Everyone,

I put up a good Forex Fibonacci Video on YouTube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6ft90FLI-I

Take a look and if you don't mind lease some positive comments or a 5 star rating.  :-)

Chris


#472 From: "careerdaytrader" <careerdaytrader@...>
Date: Sat Dec 30, 2006 4:57 pm
Subject: New LeverageFX Trading Forum
careerdaytrader
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 

Hello Everybody,

I would like to introduce our new Forex Trading Forum .  This forum will be more educational and designed to showcase over time hundreds of profitable examples of our trading systems and methods.

New Forum Address:  http://www.leveragefx.com/forum/

I'd like to keep both forums, our Yahoo one will be more for chitchat and the one on LeverageFX will be more educational and content rich!  If you would like to post trading methods or ideas, basically anything educational please do that on our LeverageFX one.  Any other posts or simple questions should be on our Yahoo one.  Most trading forums have hundreds of messages per month with very little REAL or useful content.  I'd like to keep 80% of the content on our Leverage Forum educational and useful.  When people spend time reading the posts they will learn something that will immediately benefit them and their trading.

Things I'd like to see posted on new forum.

A) Traders are encouraged to start trading journals.  This helps you learn from your mistakes and I will be reading them and commenting and further helping you with your trading.  We all learn from our mistakes, often more slowly than we would like but I would also like us all to learn from others mistakes.  By posting the good with the bad we all become better traders.

B) Feel free to post notes taken from our classes like Pat did.  Thanks Pat!  Lennie you posted many articles in our file sections, I appreciate that and will be moving many of them to this new forum for people to learn.

Thanks for your support and loyalty and I wish everyone an AMAZING 2007 !


#471 From: "J.Veiga" <jveiga01@...>
Date: Fri Dec 29, 2006 4:22 pm
Subject: RE: Re: Trend Snapback Backtesting Results
jveiga01
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
Thanks Jarrod!
Have a Great New Years!
 
JC

Jarrod A Retzloff <jretzloff@...> wrote:
The files are not in date order, look towards the bottom of the file list.

From: leveragefx@yahoogroups.com [mailto:leveragefx@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of jveiga01
Sent: Thursday, December 28, 2006 8:16 AM
To: leveragefx@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [leveragefx] Re: Trend Snapback Backtesting Results
--- In leveragefx@yahoogroups.com, "careerdaytrader"
<careerdaytrader@...> wrote:
>Hi!

Thanks for the posting, However, I don't see the file posted. Could you
double check?

JC

> TSnapBack_EUR Results.csv has been added to the File section.
>
> Make sure to select all fields and sort rows by Net Profits
> or Win %.
>


#470 From: "careerdaytrader" <careerdaytrader@...>
Date: Thu Dec 28, 2006 7:33 pm
Subject: Re: Trend Snapback Backtesting Results
careerdaytrader
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
The fields are on the top of the excel file.

Currency and time Frame
Balance Point in Mins
Period and Multiplier of Keltner are next 2
Ex Period is number of bars to avg volatility for trailing stop
ExMult is the ATR of the trailing stop
Profit Pips is for fixed stop/target but was disabled during this
test so ignore those two.

Total Net Profit shows net profit after 2 pip spread for Euro is
taken out.

Total Profit and Total Loss self explanatory

Trades are total number of trades

Win % is winning percentage

Wins are # of wins
Loss are # of losses

Avg Win - How much the avg winning trade made
Avg Loss - How much the avg losing trade lost

Cons Wins - consecutive wins
Cons +$ is how much was made during the consecutive wins

Cons Loss - how many consecutive losses in a row
Cons -$ is how much was lost during the consecutive losses

Tighten Array is for the ratchet stops

Pretty self explanatory I had thought.

--- In leveragefx@yahoogroups.com, "Dave Edwards" <dmedwards@...>
wrote:
>
> Interesting data set but I could use some explanation of the
columns and the rows, for instance why are there many rows that
appear to be none trades?  Also what is the column "Trades"?  They
are not unique numbers so does it represent trade days?
> Without clearly understanding what the data means it is difficult
to have confidence in any conclusions I might guess at.
> So a summary description would also be useful in lieu of more
detail the data.
> Thanks
> Dave
>
>
>
>
>   ----- Original Message -----
>   From: careerdaytrader
>   To: leveragefx@yahoogroups.com
>   Sent: Wednesday, December 27, 2006 1:24 PM
>   Subject: [leveragefx] Trend Snapback Backtesting Results
>
>
>   TSnapBack_EUR Results.csv has been added to the File section.
>
>   Make sure to select all fields and sort rows by Net Profits
>   or Win %.
>

#469 From: "Jarrod A Retzloff" <jretzloff@...>
Date: Thu Dec 28, 2006 10:41 pm
Subject: RE: Re: Trend Snapback Backtesting Results
jretzloff@...
Send Email Send Email
 

The files are not in date order, look towards the bottom of the file list.

 


From: leveragefx@yahoogroups.com [mailto:leveragefx@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of jveiga01
Sent: Thursday, December 28, 2006 8:16 AM
To: leveragefx@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [leveragefx] Re: Trend Snapback Backtesting Results

 

--- In leveragefx@yahoogroups.com, "careerdaytrader"
<careerdaytrader@...> wrote:
>Hi!

Thanks for the posting, However, I don't see the file posted. Could you
double check?

JC

> TSnapBack_EUR Results.csv has been added to the File section.
>
> Make sure to select all fields and sort rows by Net Profits
> or Win %.
>


#468 From: "jveiga01" <jveiga01@...>
Date: Thu Dec 28, 2006 4:15 pm
Subject: Re: Trend Snapback Backtesting Results
jveiga01
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
--- In leveragefx@yahoogroups.com, "careerdaytrader"
<careerdaytrader@...> wrote:
>Hi!

Thanks for the posting, However, I don't see the file posted. Could you
double check?

JC

> TSnapBack_EUR Results.csv has been added to the File section.
>
> Make sure to select all fields and sort rows by Net Profits
> or Win %.
>

#467 From: "Dave Edwards" <dmedwards@...>
Date: Thu Dec 28, 2006 2:13 pm
Subject: Re: Trend Snapback Backtesting Results
dmemoose
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
Interesting data set but I could use some explanation of the columns and the rows, for instance why are there many rows that appear to be none trades?  Also what is the column "Trades"?  They are not unique numbers so does it represent trade days?
Without clearly understanding what the data means it is difficult to have confidence in any conclusions I might guess at.
So a summary description would also be useful in lieu of more detail the data.
Thanks
Dave
 
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, December 27, 2006 1:24 PM
Subject: [leveragefx] Trend Snapback Backtesting Results

TSnapBack_EUR Results.csv has been added to the File section.

Make sure to select all fields and sort rows by Net Profits
or Win %.


#466 From: "careerdaytrader" <careerdaytrader@...>
Date: Wed Dec 27, 2006 6:24 pm
Subject: Trend Snapback Backtesting Results
careerdaytrader
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
TSnapBack_EUR Results.csv has been added to the File section.

Make sure to select all fields and sort rows by Net Profits
or Win %.

#465 From: "main7695" <alfred.freeman@...>
Date: Thu Dec 28, 2006 2:14 am
Subject: Japanese Yen continues its losses
main7695
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
Very interesting commentary on the yen crosses,

http://www.dismally.com/2006/12/the_yen_continues_its_losses.html

Also catch the link: schematics of how currencies move.

http://www.dismally.com/2006/12/what_dollar_decline.html

#464 From: "careerdaytrader" <careerdaytrader@...>
Date: Fri Dec 22, 2006 7:06 am
Subject: Please Rate LeverageFX and TopGun Software
careerdaytrader
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 

Hello Everyone,

I just noticed us on ForexBastards website.  If you wouldn't mind, please go to this website and click on Read and Submit Reviews on our software.

I'd greatly appreciate it.

LeverageFX Forex Trading Software Review

 


#463 From: "main7695" <alfred.freeman@...>
Date: Thu Dec 21, 2006 3:14 pm
Subject: Looking Ahead 2007 - FX
main7695
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
Looking Ahead With 2007 nearly upon us, new themes in FX will likely pop-up - or more accuarately themes that have been out of favor in 2006.

FX is typically driven by one of two things:

- rate differentials
- current account deficit/surplus

The theme in 2006 was clearly one of 'yield' - CHF and JPY suffered as traders sold these currencies to fund purchases of GBP, NZD, AUD as well as BRL, MXN and other high yielders.

The question is whether or not this will continue into 2007? While making trades based on macro analysis is a lousy timing vehicle, at some point the current account deficits will matter - currently the US is approaching levels seen in 2003, just prior to a sustained dollar sell-off.

Just some information to bear in mind for the new year.

#462 From: "main7695" <alfred.freeman@...>
Date: Sun Dec 17, 2006 6:22 pm
Subject: CPI Numbers Don't Square With Reality
main7695
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 

CPI Numbers Don't Square With Reality - Market To Climb Anyway

Barry Ritholtz submits: My pal Cody wrote a column yesterday titled Reality Check. He wrote: "Nothing drives me crazier than when people point to the current state of the economy and lament it as anything less than a boom." He further laments the parsing of "the macro and microeconomic data for any little validation of their wrong views."

One thing Cody is definitely right about: if you have been anything but long and strong, you've been wrong (investing wise). From a trader's perspective, fighting the tape is always a losing battle. The trend remains up, momentum is positive, seasonal strength is upon us, and the bears and shorts have been vanquished.

But is that a Reality Check? Is accepting the Wall Street and Mutual Fund Buy & Hold sales pitch all that real? Do we really take Government Statistics at face -- and call that a true gauge of reality? Has our reality simply become the 200 day moving average of the markets?

Take today's benign CPI data. Futures exploded on the release, and given this is the 2006's last quadruple witch, the bias will be strongly to the upside (although we should expect a lot of volatility in individual names). The best short term advice remains: Don't Fight the Tape!

But the official data continues to be at odds with reality (not that Traders care a whit about that). The CPI release claims there is almost no inflation, with core CPI up 2.6% (consensus was for 2.7%). But consider what the BLS told us today:

• Food prices fell, as orange juice went to record highs, and corn is up 70% since August, while wheat is near 10 yr highs.

• Medical care rose only 0.2% -- apparently, the recent 20% annual increase has been halted.

• Education prices went down 0.2% -- despite widely reported tuition increases -- primarily caused by a decline in long distance phone service prices (WTF?).

• Commodities ex-food and energy fell 0.4%, just as the CRB industrial metals index went to a record high.

Thanks to Peter Boockvar of Miller Tabak + Co for much of the data here

Bottom line remains that the headline numbers look great -- expect markets to respond positively -- but the reality check is this: these Government BLS numbers simply do not square with reality.

While Investors can recognize this, Traders have no choice but to "ignore reality" and go for the ride. A turret-bound buddy wrote me:

I don't care about the numbers, the economic data, whether Iraq is in a Civil war, if the President gets impeached, who controls congress, what a company does, whether we fall into a recession or if China buys Europe and turns it into a Disney theme park. My world is defined by what I see on my four 20 inch monitors in front of me. Everything else is noise.

That's what is driving the markets. And that's your reality check for the day.


#461 From: "main7695" <alfred.freeman@...>
Date: Sat Dec 16, 2006 11:42 pm
Subject: CPI Numbers Don't Square With Reality
main7695
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
#460 From: "Michele Ray" <pipiphooray@...>
Date: Wed Dec 13, 2006 9:17 pm
Subject: Thanks CareerTrader
pipiphooray
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
Thanks for your reply.

I have started watching the videos, and am in hopes to have the
software by Friday for class.  We'll see.

"Failure hates determination."  That is my mantra.  So I am not afraid
of hard work.

I like the looks of some of the tools in the videos, ie. the buy/sell
pressure, balance point line, etc.  I am very hopeful that this is the
system for me.

I also like the fact that Chris seems so intent on our success.  It
definitely helps to have someone in your corner.

I just was nervous because I am not a pro at finding good settings for
indicators.  I just haven't had that much experience with them other
than using what the default is.  Sometimes different strategies will
give you different settings to use.  But it is mostly I guess that I
don't know what exactly is being measured or how it is being measured.
  So that makes me a little nervous.

Thanks for your input.  I will go over the videos and go thru the
files in the group site.  I notice there are settings in there too.
And I will try to find what will work for me.

I like the looks of the heatmap, too.  I like the idea of being aware
of the strength of the currency in relation to other currencies.  It
seems that in itself would be a strong edge.

Thanks,
Michele

#459 From: "careerdaytrader" <careerdaytrader@...>
Date: Tue Dec 12, 2006 8:33 pm
Subject: Re: Hi Everyone.
careerdaytrader
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
--- In leveragefx@yahoogroups.com, "Michele Ray" <pipiphooray@...>
wrote:
>
> Hi,
> It sounded as though you have to set a lot of the settings on your
> own and figure it out for yourself??  Is that right?  Is there good
> support as far as getting you up and running?

Michelle watch the first video on our video page.  It shows all
settings we've been using and trading with for a long time.
Recently I have done a lot of backtesting and have released special
versions that backtest various settings to see which have the
highest win percentage and make the most money.  I've told people to
DO THE RESEARCH using this latest version because if people are
simply told what to do or what settings to use they will NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE in the system to pull the trigger and make money.
Learning to trade involves listening to the teacher but also
spending hours of self research to GAIN the confidence.  That's why
I said that in class.  You can't be shown how to trade but you can
be shown profitable trading methods.  The trader then must figure
out on their own which systems they can actually pull the trigger on
and FOLLOW.  That again takes confidence and only way to gain that
is through either trading it or watching it over tons of examples on
the chart.  In a nutshell WORK.  Lots of hard work and time.  There
is a huge correlation between traders who make money and those who
spend a lot of time doing SELF STUDY.  I've been too easy on our
traders and am starting to crack down and tell people to do the
research themselves.  It may sound harsh but is in their own best
interest.

> I have never worked with Keltners, so I am not really familiar with
> what settings would be good settings.

Go watch the indicator optimization video plus the rest.  Ask
questions after you've done the study.  There's about 20 hours worth
of videos.

> Was it easy to learn and catch onto?  About how long does it take
> to be up, running, and able to trade live with confidence?

This again depends on how much self study a person does.  Look at
lots of past charts, its the only way to gain confidence that a
method works.

> It looked like a pretty good system, but a little confusing as far
> as sometimes he was saying that red showed strength and sometimes
> green showed strength.  Is there a member's area where people with
> the system can meet and exchange ideas?

Red shows chart should go down, Green shows it should go up. It's
really kindergarden simple. How this works underneath is complicated
but I'm going to just focus on how easy it is to use when you simply
just watch the colors.

#458 From: "Michele Ray" <pipiphooray@...>
Date: Mon Dec 11, 2006 10:18 pm
Subject: Hi Everyone.
pipiphooray
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
Hi,

I am new to the group and went to my first meeting today.  I would
like some feedback from some members on how the system is working for you.

It sounded as though you have to set a lot of the settings on your own
and figure it out for yourself??  Is that right?  Is there good
support as far as getting you up and running?

I have never worked with Keltners, so I am not really familiar with
what settings would be good settings.

Was it easy to learn and catch onto?  About how long does it take to
be up, running, and able to trade live with confidence?

It looked like a pretty good system, but a little confusing as far as
sometimes he was saying that red showed strength and sometimes green
showed strength.  Is there a member's area where people with the
system can meet and exchange ideas?

Thanks,
Michele

#457 From: "rjkjp1" <rjkjp1@...>
Date: Sun Dec 10, 2006 4:42 am
Subject: Re: LeverageFX Group is now moderated
rjkjp1
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
hi iS the esignal data the full esignal or is it the tahoe charts
(forexcharts )forex feed that is separate from standard esignal?
best
Robert

  .
>
> Chris Donnell
> http://www.leveragefx.com
>
> For those who are new to trading foreign currency get our TopGun
> trading software and eSignal data free when you trade with us.  See
> website above for details.
>

#456 From: "main7695" <alfred.freeman@...>
Date: Sun Dec 10, 2006 2:06 am
Subject: Dollar Positive??
main7695
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
I wonder whether the FOMC meeting on Tuesday now becomes a dollar
positive if the Fed maintains the same relatively optimistic economic
outlook.

Forex market takes a breather - Interesting read

http://tinyurl.com/y44r9b

#455 From: "main7695" <alfred.freeman@...>
Date: Sat Dec 2, 2006 9:31 pm
Subject: The Falling Dollar. The Economist Nov 30 Print Edition
main7695
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 

The falling dollar Nov 30th 2006 From The Economist print edition

A further drop is likely as the American economy slows. THE dollar's tumble this week was attended by predictable shrieks from the markets; but as it fell to a 20-month low of $1.32 against the euro, the only real surprise was that it had not slipped sooner. Indeed, there are good reasons to expect its slide to continue, dragging it below the record low of $1.36 against the euro that it hit in December 2004.

The recent decline was triggered by nasty news about the American economy. New figures this week suggested that the housing market's troubles are having a wider impact on the economy. Consumer confidence and durable-goods orders both fell more sharply than expected. In contrast, German business confidence has risen to a 15-year high. There are also mounting concerns that central banks in China and elsewhere, which have been piling up dollars assiduously for years, may start selling.

Ben Bernanke, chairman of America's Federal Reserve, sounded unperturbed this week, suggesting that the economy will enjoy a soft landing (which would argue that interest-rate cuts are not imminent). This notion has underpinned the belief that the dollar will hold up because foreign investors will remain eager to buy dollar assets and so finance the country's vast current-account deficit. But if the economy slows more sharply than expected, their enthusiasm for the greenback will shrink. And if house prices continue to fall, the risk of a recession will grow.

Yet cyclical factors only partly explain why the dollar has been strong. At bottom, its attractiveness is based more on structural factors—or, more accurately, on an illusion about structural differences between the American and European economies.

The weak strongman. The main reason for the dollar's strength has been the widespread belief that the American economy vastly outperformed the world's other rich-country economies in recent years. But the figures do not support the hype. Sure, America's GDP growth has been faster than Europe's, but that is mostly because its population has grown more quickly too. Dig deeper, and the difference shrinks. Official figures of productivity growth, which should in theory be an important factor driving currency movements, exaggerate America's lead. If the two are measured on a comparable basis, productivity growth over the past decade has been almost the same in the euro area as it has in America. Even more important, the latest figures suggest that, whereas productivity growth is now slowing in America, it is accelerating in the euro zone.

So, contrary to popular perceptions, America's economy has not significantly outperformed Europe's in recent years. And to achieve this not-much-better-than parity, America has had to pump itself full of steroids. Since 2000 its structural budget deficit (after adjusting for the impact of the economic cycle) has widened sharply, while American households' saving rate has plunged, causing the current-account deficit to swell. Over the same period, the euro-area economies saw no fiscal stimulus and household saving barely budged.

America's growth, thus, has been driven by consumer spending. That spending, supported by dwindling saving and increased borrowing, is clearly unsustainable; and the consequent economic and financial imbalances must inevitably unwind. As that happens, the country could face a prolonged period of slower growth.

As for Europe, the old continent is hobbled by inflexible product and labour markets. But that, paradoxically, is an advantage: it means the place has a lot of scope for improvement. Some European countries are beginning to contemplate (and, to a limited extent, undertake) economic reforms. If they push ahead, their growth could actually speed up over the coming years. Once investors spot this, they are likely to conclude that the euro is a better bet than the dollar.

It needn't hurt. Two countervailing factors, it is argued, will tend to support the dollar. First, emerging economies hold so many greenbacks that they fear the capital loss that they would incur if they encouraged the dollar to drop. Second, they want to keep the value of their currencies down to help their exports. But the longer they continue to pile up dollars, the bigger the eventual losses. That thought is likely to discourage them from buying even more dollars. And they may calculate that the greenback still has a way to fall. Talk of its weakness is greatly exaggerated: its real trade-weighted exchange rate against a broad basket of currencies is still close to its 30-year average. In other words, the dollar needs to fall by a lot more to make a significant dent in America's external deficit.

Does a falling dollar, with its implications of American weakness, spell doom for the rest of the planet? Not necessarily. The world economy could well benefit from a gradual slide in the greenback. It would help to reduce global current-account imbalances and, by shifting production into America's tradable sector, would cushion the United States' economy as its housing bubble bursts. True, a weaker dollar would tend to hurt exporters in Europe and Asia. But the impact on those economies could be offset if central banks hold interest rates lower than they otherwise would, thereby boosting domestic demand—exactly what is required for global rebalancing. The current strength of growth in Europe and Asia will also help to prevent an American downturn from turning in to a worldwide slump.

If a steady slide in the dollar would be good news, a sharp plunge as investors take fright and run would be another matter. That could increase risk premiums and unnerve frothy financial markets around the world. A tumbling dollar would also add to inflationary pressures in America and so make it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates to cushion a collapsing housing market (Mr Bernanke gave warning this week that inflation remains "uncomfortably high"). Both America and the world would then pay a painful price for the long-delayed drop in the dollar.

 


#454 From: "main7695" <alfred.freeman@...>
Date: Sat Dec 2, 2006 4:37 pm
Subject: Posted chart of short term reversal of GBP Nov 30 in files area.
main7695
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
Short-Term Reversal Levels (STRL's)

Good example of reversal last night Thurs Nov 30, in GBP/USD

#453 From: "main7695" <alfred.freeman@...>
Date: Sat Dec 2, 2006 6:14 pm
Subject: Sterling bubble - beware sharp correction
main7695
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
Sterling moves have increasingly been dominated by technical
considerations and the targeting of key resistance levels. Further
speculative buying is possible, but there is the growing risk of a
very sharp corrective fall.

Sterling broke through resistance close to 1.9550 against the dollar
and strengthened to highs of 1.9690 in US trading, a fresh 14-year
peak for the UK currency. Sterling continued to gain ground on Friday
with a move to near 1.9750 before a retreat to 1.9670. Following the
convincing break of 1.9550, markets will be looking to target the 2.00
level, although the main feature is likely to be a sustained increase
in volatility.

The UK data on Thursday was weaker than expected with consumer
confidence falling to -7 in November from -5 the previous month while
the CBI retail survey recorded an expected sales balance of -9 for
November compared with -4 the previous month, the weakest report since
March. There will be the growing risks of a sharp adjustment to
expectations if forthcoming data remains weak. The CIPS index for the
manufacturing sector weakened to 52.6 in November from 53.5 in October.

The Bank of England comments on Thursday were broadly neutral,
although the relative lack of concern over Sterling strength will
offer some UK currency support.

#452 From: "careerdaytrader" <careerdaytrader@...>
Date: Fri Dec 1, 2006 6:35 pm
Subject: Dollar Comments
careerdaytrader
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
10-Year Yields Interesting historical data point: With the ISM coming
in under 50 this morning, it seems to side with the bond markets
assessment of the economy versus what Bernake has been stating. The
Fed has never hiked interest rates when the ISM has been below 50.0
and thus dampens significantly concerns over the recent hawkish
rhetoric from the Fed. Trading Impact: look for lower yields and a
weaker dollar in the weeks ahead.

Messages 452 - 602 of 602   Newest  |  < Newer  |  Older >  |  Oldest
Advanced
Add to My Yahoo!      XML What's This?

Copyright © 2009 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Privacy Policy - Terms of Service - Guidelines - Help