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-- Begin Article --

Closings at downtown Miami condos have gone better than many expected
Copyright © 2008, The Miami Herald, Matthew Haggman. Distributed by McClatchy-
Tribune Information Services

MIAMI – Nov. 24, 2008 – Miami's latest building boom is creating 22,000
condominium
units in the city's urban center, more than double the number built in the past
40 years.

But the question everyone wants answered amid the real estate downturn is: How
many
have actually sold?

Seventy percent have found a buyer, according to a new study by
condovultures.com, a
real estate consultancy. But nearly a quarter of the condos – including some of
the largest
projects – built during the boom will be delivered over the next several months.

So far, 17,299 condos have been finished and 12,169 have closed at an average
price of
$405,966 per unit, adding up to total sales of nearly $5 billion in the greater
downtown
Miami area, which includes the Brickell, central business district and Midtown
neighborhoods.

Those sales are better than many observers expected for a downtown area often
viewed as
ground zero for real estate speculation and excess, and it highlights Miami's
ongoing
urban revitalization, fueled by people, builders and investors returning to the
city center.

However, by year's end, another 3,999 units are set to hit the market, and
another 1,439
after that.

"South Florida developers have to be excited by the fact that more than two out
of three
downtown condo units have closed successfully," said Peter Zalewski, principal
at
condovultures.com in Bal Harbour. "But some giant projects are coming, and
they're going
to hit like a hurricane – the only question is what category storm?"

The massive projects include the three-tower, 1,800-unit ICON Brickell built
between the
bay and Brickell Avenue, which starts closings this month. The 342-unit EPIC
rising
alongside the Miami River also will start closings soon. Also coming are the
530-unit Mint
at Riverfront, 459-unit Infinity at Brickell, and 346-unit Paramount Bay.

"We are bullish," said Miroslav Mladenovic, vice president of Cabi Development,
which
started closings Thursday on its 848-unit Everglades on the Bay project along
Biscayne
Boulevard. "Comparable projects to ours have fared well; we don't see why we
can't fare
the same."

A condo hotbed

Zalewski's report, culled from a review of property records ending Sept. 30,
covers the
area between the Julia Tuttle and Rickenbacker causeways, and from I-95 to
Biscayne Bay.

This swath of land has seen more development than any corner in Florida and is a
closely
watched sector in the broader housing market.

A month ago, the last of dozens of cranes erecting high-rise condos across
downtown
finally came down, signaling the end of the frenetic and historic boom. With few
new
residential projects planned, the next step is completing the structures and
getting the
units sold.

The new batch of condos is hitting the market as credit remains tight and
existing home
prices continue to fall due to a large inventory of unsold homes throughout
South Florida.

Home sales, however, have picked up in recent months.

While many downtown builders pre-sold all of their units – buyers were typically
required
to plunk down 20 percent deposits, though some builders asked for 30 percent –
the
ongoing concern is how many buyers will ultimately come to the closing table and
pay the
remaining 70 to 80 percent.

A cottage industry of lawyers attempting to get buyers out of pre-construction
contracts
has emerged.

Despite ongoing buzz about vulture funds trolling the real estate market for
bargains, the
closings have largely occurred without such funds swooping in to buy up blocks
of condos
at a discount. The rare examples of such bulk deals have been developer-led.
Related
Group, for example, partnered with Philadelphia investor Lubert-Adler this year
to spend
$36 million on 146 units at 50 Biscayne, the 528-unit Biscayne Boulevard condo
that's
now 100 percent closed, according to the condovulture.com report.

But that could change as the new round of closings for big condo projects begins
at a time
when developers face mounting pressures from lenders eager to see construction
loans
paid back. Indeed, the coming units could portend better deals for buyers and
added
pressure on downtown builders with outstanding loans and unsold units.

Hit and miss

So far the success of individual downtown buildings varies, according to the
condovulture.com report.

For instance, the two-tower 528-unit One Miami at the mouth of the Miami River
and
103-unit Loft I are 100 percent closed. The 348-unit Brickell on the River north
tower is
98 percent closed. The 200-unit Ten Museum Park on Biscayne Boulevard and the
454-
unit south tower at Quantum on the Bay next to Margaret Pace Park are 89 percent
closed.

Turning to rentals

Yet, as of Sept. 30, the report found, the 635-unit Opera Tower, a few blocks
north of the
performing arts center, had closed only 35 percent of its units; the 498-unit
Ivy along the
Miami River had closed 32 percent; and the 91-unit Flagler First along Flagler
Street just
28 percent.

Tibor Hollo, chairman of Florida East Coast Realty and builder of Opera Tower,
said he has
started renting units there.

"It's a tough market, but we are getting closings," said Inigo Ardid, vice
president of Key
International, who is building Ivy. He said closings at the condo tower have
risen to 42
percent since Zalewski finished his report.

"It is a slow process. Instead of closing buildings in 40 or 45 days, it is
taking six to eight
months or longer," Ardid said.

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