CONTENTS:

1 - GLOBAL: Good for health and reducing global warming
2 - INDONESIA: Focus on earthquake preparedness, not prediction


1 - GLOBAL: Good for health and reducing global warming

JOHANNESBURG, 27 November (IRIN) - Eat less meat, have smaller herds of animals,
switch to more efficient stoves that pollute less, and develop more sustainable
public transport systems are some of the lifestyle changes and technical fixes
that could save millions of lives and reduce global warming.

This is the message in a series of studies published by a group of scientists
in the respected British medical journal, The Lancet, to make a case for health
at the United Nations climate change conference in Copenhagen (COP15), starting
on 12 December 2009.

Each study focuses on one sector where greenhouse gas emissions need to be
reduced, including household energy use, urban land transport, electricity
generation, and food and agriculture. The effect on health of short-lived
greenhouse pollutants, produced by several sectors, is also reviewed.

Reducing preventable deaths is the aim: two million people die from indoor air
pollution every year; 1.2 from outdoor air pollution; 1.3 million from road
traffic injuries.

Each study examines the health implications of actions to reduce carbon dioxide
(CO2) and other greenhouse gases in high- and low-income countries. Supplying
cleaner household energy to the poor and raising the fitness levels of the 3.2
million who die every year from physical inactivity would be simple solutions,
Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, a scientist with the World Health Organization and a
contributor to the studies, told IRIN.

"We [health professionals] cannot become spectators," said Mike Gill, of the
University of Surrey, a co-author of a study that urged doctors to discuss
climate change with patients.

"We have the evidence, a good story to tell that dramatically shifts the lens
through which climate change is perceived, and we have public trust," He wrote
with co-author Robin Stott.

Paul Wilkinson, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, is the
lead author of a study suggesting that one the most cost-effective
climate-health linkages - implementing national programmes that offer
low-emission stove technology for burning local biomass fuels in poor countries
- could avert millions of premature deaths.

"The cleaner cook-stove technology means that the same fuel can be burnt with
greater efficiency but much lower exposure to particle pollution in the indoor
air. It does not add to the cost of fuel, but does entail cost for the stove
itself. This is only about US$50, however, and could be subsidized, of course,"
he told IRIN.

"There could be additional benefits from access to electricity or other 'clean'
[by comparison to the incomplete burning of biomass fuel] sources, but the costs
and effects are more complex to quantify."

Gill and Stott recommended setting up a low-carbon development fund of at least
US$150 billion to help developing countries implement some of the clean energy
strategies.

The money could be raised by imposing a $5 tax on each of the 20 billion
barrels of oil used every year by the 30 member countries of the Organisation
for Economic Cooperation and Development, and a tax on airline tickets.

Eat less meat

The food and agriculture sector contributes 10 percent to 12 percent of total
greenhouse gas emissions worldwide said Sharon Friel, of the Australian National
University, and Alan Dangour, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine, in a study calling for a 30-percent reduction in livestock production.
This would lower emissions, while less intake of animal saturated fat would
improve health.

"By 2030, rising demand for meat, especially in countries with transition
economies, is expected to drive up livestock production by 85 percent from that
in 2000, which will lead to further substantial increases in emissions," Friel
and Dangour noted.

However, the advantages of reduced animal-source food production may apply only
in countries with high production levels; livestock production and the
consumption of animal-source products, and the associated emissions, are still
relatively low in many low-income countries. The "pending challenge in public
health is to ensure access to a diet of sufficient quantity and quality for all
populations", they commented.

Globally, production per head of energy, fats, proteins, and micronutrients had
increased, and was enough to meet everyone's needs, yet almost a billion people
have protein-energy undernutrition, most of whom are also undernourished in
micronutrients and minerals, such as iron and zinc, said Friel and Dangour.

Andrew Haines, Director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,
suggested that "In view of the trillions of dollars likely to be spent on
greenhouse gas mitigation in the coming decades, the relatively small resources
needed to guide investments along paths bringing the world closer to its health
and climate goals would be money well spent."

jk/he[ENDS]


2 - INDONESIA: Focus on earthquake preparedness, not prediction

JAKARTA, 27 November (IRIN) - Predicting earthquakes is an inexact science -
which is why disaster preparedness remains key to saving lives, scientists say.

Experts have forecast that a long undersea faultline along Indonesia's Sumatra
Island is due to produce a powerful and devastating earthquake in the next few
decades.

Sections of the fault, called the Sunda megathrust, have ruptured a number of
times over the past decade, causing several earthquakes in the region.

A major earthquake could trigger a tsunami that could result in casualties and
damage equal to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, writes Kerry Sieh, a scientist at
the Earth Observatory of Singapore, in an article made available to IRIN.

"To those living in harm's way [on] the coasts of western Sumatra, it should be
useful to know that the next great earthquake and tsunami are likely to occur
within the next few decades, well within the lifetimes of children and young
adults living there now," the article states.

A magnitude 7.9 earthquake that devastated West Sumatra province and killed
more than 1,100 people on 30 September originated near that faultline, according
to experts.

"We don't know when such a great earthquake will happen. It could be tomorrow,
next year or the next five years," said Fauzi, head of the Earthquake Center at
the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency in Jakarta, who like many Indonesians only
uses one name.

"It will be much more beneficial if we focus on preparedness. Earthquakes don't
kill, but collapsed buildings do," he told IRIN.

Fauzi said between 1991 and 2009, Indonesia was hit by 43 major earthquakes, 15
of which generated tsunamis. The 30 September quake in West Sumatra resulted in
a tsunami, though it was very small, he said.

Predicting earthquakes is also a sensitive issue in Indonesia and false rumours
could create panic, Fauzi warned. "When scientists say an earthquake with a
magnitude of 8.8 is likely to occur based on scientific findings, people refuse
to go to school or work and SMS relatives," he said. "The public talks about
tomorrow, while scientists talk about years."

Forecasting

Wahyu Triyoso, a geologist with the Bandung Institute of Technology, said the
magnitude of an earthquake correlates with the size of the fault.

"If we could measure the amount of slip precisely, probably we could make rough
estimates and we can make necessary preparations," he told IRIN. "Forecasting
means little if we don't know the fault size, the dimension, length and width."

Triyoso said even though knowledge of a potential earthquake was useful for
scientists, it would be hard to communicate to the general public.

"If we say a certain place is dangerous and the public panic, it could become a
social disaster," he said. "So at the moment, preparedness is the best course of
action," he said.

In West Sumatra, an NGO called the Tsunami Alert Community (Kogami) has been
working to instil a culture of preparedness among the population since 2005.

Kogami has been providing training on disaster preparedness in schools and
communities in the provincial capital Padang, teaching them what to do should an
earthquake and a tsunami hit.

The group has mapped out evacuation routes, with high-risk areas zoned red,
while low-risk areas are zoned yellow.

It is introducing similar programmes in other districts in cooperation with
other NGOs.

"Many people [live] in fear because they have received little information about
earthquakes and what to do when a disaster happens," said Patra Rina Dewi,
Kogami's executive director.

"We know we live in an earthquake zone and our job is to equip people with
necessary knowledge," she said.

atp/ds/mw[ENDS]


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